Latest Inflation Numbers and Discussion

[GenXguy]

I don't know about anyone else, but potatos have gone up in price - way up, but YMMV.

lol Seems like everything. Was just in Walmart. The apples I bought for $3.08 in early 2020 were $4.48 today. That's more than a 45% increase in price.

I decided to eat lunch in the work cafeteria. $4.91 + tax for pasta bar and a couple sides. Not bad and was enough of a meal for me.

 

[GenXguy]

lol Seems like everything. Was just in Walmart. The apples I bought for $3.08 in early 2020 were $4.48 today. That's more than a 45% increase in price.

I decided to eat lunch in the work cafeteria. $4.91 + tax for pasta bar and a couple sides. Not bad and was enough of a meal for me.

Well, what timing. Right after mentioning taking advantage of the employee discount at work for lunch, I'm no longer an employee. It's a shock for certain because I handled some important things that no one else there is familiar with and limited knowledge of. I guess I won't do the OMY anymore despite the high inflation, but at least I get some bonus separation funds that I wouldn't have gotten if I had retired. So, I'm lucky in that respect. It looks like I'm FIREd, as long as high inflation doesn't send me back to work.

It also looking like there will be more interest rate increases on the way from the Fed.

 

[acronymous]

Well, what timing. Right after mentioning taking advantage of the employee discount at work for lunch, I'm no longer an employee. It's a shock for certain because I handled some important things that no one else there is familiar with and limited knowledge of. I guess I won't do the OMY anymore despite the high inflation, but at least I get some bonus separation funds that I wouldn't have gotten if I had retired. So, I'm lucky in that respect. It looks like I'm FIREd, as long as high inflation doesn't send me back to work.

It also looking like there will be more interest rate increases on the way from the Fed.

You got this. Last few years you've refined a LBYM mentality that will serve you well when necessary in your retirement. Go do your thing!

 

[CaptTom]

Well, what timing. Right after mentioning taking advantage of the employee discount at work for lunch, I'm no longer an employee...

Wait, what? I thought we were talking about inflation here.


Well, Welcome to being FIRE'd!


Yeah, you'll do fine. And hopefully the worst of the inflation, whether you believe the gubbment or real numbers, is behind us for now.

 

[38Chevy454]

Well, what timing. Right after mentioning taking advantage of the employee discount at work for lunch, I'm no longer an employee. It's a shock for certain because I handled some important things that no one else there is familiar with and limited knowledge of. I guess I won't do the OMY anymore despite the high inflation, but at least I get some bonus separation funds that I wouldn't have gotten if I had retired. So, I'm lucky in that respect. It looks like I'm FIREd, as long as high inflation doesn't send me back to work.

It also looking like there will be more interest rate increases on the way from the Fed.

Well, it seems the company made your retirement decision for you. Good that you receive some severance in addition. Welcome to the retirement club, even if you were sort of pushed in the door

 

[jim584672]

GenX, you need to get a new job, that inflation is brutal. I figure homeless people survive so why worry.

 

[GenXguy]

GenX, you need to get a new job, that inflation is brutal. I figure homeless people survive so why worry.

Thanks for the tip, Jim. I might have to do that, but hopefully not or not anytime soon. Otherwise, the homeless will give me something to aspire to when dealing with inflation.

 

[Koolau]

GenX, you need to get a new job, that inflation is brutal. I figure homeless people survive so why worry.

Yep, it's the realtor's motto: Location, location, location.

 

[jim584672]

Worst case, buy a tent and head to Hawaii.

 

[Koolau]

Worst case, buy a tent and head to Hawaii.

A blue tarp will do. You can pick one up locally.

In addition to the poor folks who have substance and/or mental issues and live in tents or under tarps on the street, we have whole communities of homeless who have family members who w*rk. A few have cars, but most use our excellent bus service to get to w*rk or sources of supplies. It's inexpensive housing in an otherwise HCOL area. I wouldn't want to live in those conditions, but it's doable.

 

[GenXguy]

A blue tarp will do. You can pick one up locally.

I thought with all the high inflation in Hawaii, it might be better to pickup locally here instead. Or maybe it would be lower cost to rent a room in a midwestern slum?

 

[Koolau]

I thought with all the high inflation in Hawaii, it might be better to pickup locally here instead. Or maybe it would be lower cost to rent a room in a midwestern slum?

Heh, heh, I see what you did there.

 

[Montecfo]

The PCE deflator (Fed's preferred inflation measure) came in softer than expected at 0.1% for the month and 3.8% annually. That compares to 0.4% and 4.3% for April.

Core PCE increased 0.3% for the month and 4.6% for the year versus 0.4% and 4.7% expected.

Overall a good signal that inflation is continuing to decline.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/30/pce-inflation-may-2023-.html

 

[Koolau]

The PCE deflator (Fed's preferred inflation measure) came in softer than expected at 0.1% for the month and 3.8% annually. That compares to 0.4% and 4.3% for April.

Core PCE increased 0.3% for the month and 4.6% for the year versus 0.4% and 4.7% expected.

Overall a good signal that inflation is continuing to decline.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/30/pce-inflation-may-2023-.html

So if I'm reading it right, prices are up, but inflation is down. Apparently, consumer spending is also up, but only .1% which means that consumer spending is being somewhat curtailed - especially in real dollars. Am I close? Thanks.

 

[Montecfo]

By Jove, I think you've got it!

 

[Koolau]

By Jove, I think you've got it!

Thanks and aloha.

 

[GenXguy]

So if I'm reading it right, prices are up, but inflation is down. Apparently, consumer spending is also up, but only .1% which means that consumer spending is being somewhat curtailed - especially in real dollars. Am I close? Thanks.

Inflation may be down from the massive levels were were seeing, yet 4.6% core is still over 250% of the target rate! This is a serious problem. The fed dropped the ball yet again by pausing rate hikes. Prices are still increasing quickly, much much faster than they should be if we had normal inflation. And beyond the gubment figures, you can bet real inflation is considerably higher as well.

The rejection of student loan forgiveness by SCOTUS might help some with inflation when these borrowers realize they have to pay back their loans rather than functioning as yet another stimulus to selective recipients. We'll see what happens in the next few months, particularly beyond October when they actually have to start making payments on their loans if there's not another intervention. Hopefully inflation will move closer to the target, although that will never eliminate the damage that has already been done from the very high inflation we have already seen and are still seeing to this point.

 

[aja8888]

Very few are talking about "services" inflation as that is still out of control.

 

[madatrub]

One reason PCE was down because oil was down significantly. Starting in June, we likely will have our first month of + crude prices in the year. That doesnt bode well for PCE going forward.

 

[MichaelB]

Monthly inflation numbers are less meaningful than rolling averages. Next month the 12m average will get another push down as last June the PCE was very high.

In general, we should expect to see inflation averages coming down over the next quarter.

 

[Koolau]

Monthly inflation numbers are less meaningful than rolling averages. Next month the 12m average will get another push down as last June the PCE was very high.

In general, we should expect to see inflation averages coming down over the next quarter.

Heh, heh, I'll be waiting. Of course, everything takes longer in the Islands, so maybe next year.

 

[MichaelB]

Expected inflation, as measured by the NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations, has also been on a steady decline all this year (latest release here) The 3 and 5 year expectation may have leveled off, though, and are still higher than the pre-pandemic era, although not egregiously so.

Inflation expectations declined to 4.1 percent at the one-year-ahead horizon, its lowest reading since May 2021, but increased slightly to 3.0 percent and 2.7 percent at the three- and five-year-ahead horizons, respectively, according to the May Survey of Consumer Expectations. Labor market expectations were mixed with expected earnings growth declining, and unemployment expectations and perceived job loss risk improving. Households’ perceptions and expectations for credit conditions and their own financial situations deteriorated slightly.

 

[Mulligan]

Very few are talking about "services" inflation as that is still out of control.

My buddy and I were heading out with a group for a 3 day golf outing last week. We stopped in at a local diner in a small town on the way… We both had 2 scrambled eggs, hash browns, toast, and biscuit and gravy side with a cup of coffee. $8 a piece. My buddy told the waitress she forgot to add our coffees on the bill. She said that is included in the price. He just couldnt get over how cheap and good the meal was and left a $20 tip. The fact she was very easy on his eyes probably didnt hurt the tip either, ha.

 

[aja8888]

My buddy and I were heading out with a group for a 3 day golf outing last week. We stopped in at a local diner in a small town on the way… We both had 2 scrambled eggs, hash browns, toast, and biscuit and gravy side with a cup of coffee. $8 a piece. My buddy told the waitress she forgot to add our coffees on the bill. She said that is included in the price. He just couldnt get over how cheap and good the meal was and left a $20 tip. The fact she was very easy on his eyes probably didnt hurt the tip either, ha.

At the local Black Bear Diner here in The Woodlands, Texas, that same breakfast for two people (myself and a friend) is $32.00 ($16.00 each) without tip. We do this every other weekend. The place is always packed by 8:00 AM and a 1/2 hour wait by 9:00 AM.

 

[Turbo29]

I saw avocado toast on the menu at IHOP for $11.49; comes with hash browns and roasted cherry tomatoes. If you want 2 eggs and bacon, it is $18.49. It was one of the most expensive things on the menu, more than steak and eggs. With all of the sales, you can get avocados around here for $1 or less, sometimes much less.

I wonder who orders this.