LOL!'s Market Timing Newsletter

[Fermion]

The only game I will play in Vegas is tournament poker. The casino takes a portion of the entry fee but other than that, you are playing against other people with no house advantage. I actually have come in first place in one tournament and several times been at the final table. Small games though, no more than about $30 to $60 buy in.

 

[Mulligan]

The only game I will play in Vegas is tournament poker. The casino takes a portion of the entry fee but other than that, you are playing against other people with no house advantage. I actually have come in first place in one tournament and several times been at the final table. Small games though, no more than about $30 to $60 buy in.

I admire that Fermion. But I cant play poker for 3 reasons... 1) It requires thinking 2) Beer drinking doesn't improve likelihood of winning 3) and cussing loud when things go wrong probably isn't as accepted there as it is in the Sports Book. In fact it appears very quiet in those poker rooms when I walk by.


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[Fermion]

The poker room is awesome as it is usually the only place they don't allow smoking. The only sports betting I do is at the horse track, because my wife likes to watch the horses run. She always bets on the low odds winner, winning 50 cents on a 2 dollar bet, while I always go for the trifecta (go big or go home is my motto). She does better. We haven't been in about 8 years though.

 

[NW-Bound]

I have been betting way longer than I have been investing. I had to talk the principal out of a spanking when the teacher busted my gambling ring...

By giving him part of the vig?

 

[Mulligan]

By giving him part of the vig?

I was only a fifth grader so I did not even know that part yet. But the spreads killed them I remember. I remember telling the principal how could this be illegal when I am getting the point spreads from the newspaper. He gave me a break. If I remember correctly I didn't even know it was illegal to even bet then, because Jimmy the Greek was always in tv sundays picking the spreads. That is where I am sure I got the idea from.


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[pb4uski]

I think I may rebalance tomorrow... sell bonds and buy stocks.... so I hope it is another down day. Opportunistic rebalancing is about the extent of my market timing.

 

[Fermion]

The Shanghai index just flat lined, so not sure what is up with that. Maybe the government cut the feed (if you can't see or hear the tree fall, did it really happen?)

 

[NW-Bound]

It is frozen but up from previous close, right? Maybe the Chinese gummint says "Hey this is good enough. All trades have to be at this price from now on."

 

[LOL!]

Sorry for being late with the following orders, but they were executed in the last hour except for one which was executed yesterday.

This is just pure luck: My wife's 401(k) plan started offering a new fund this week, so she moved her entire 401(k) from a money market fund to an S&P500 index fund. The order said it would take 3 days to go through, but it went through yesterday at the market close. Her 401(k) must be up 4% today.

I found out this afternoon that her 401(k) was now 100% S&P500, so that and all the other buys in the past few days made our portfolio way way overweighted to equities, so I started selling since market was going up.

I also noticed that Vanguard Total US Bond Index fund in the form of the ETF BND was down about 0.5% today and down about 0.85% since Monday when I sold shares of it. Such staid bond funds should not move that much in a few days, so that meant buying opportunity for me.

Trades:
Sold IVV (S&P500) and bought BND (total US bond).

Exchanged from VTSAX (total US stock market) to VBTLX (total US bond)

Exchanged from VLCAX (large-cap index) in a taxable account to money market. These were lots that had small losses, so this is a tax-loss harvesting move. I have to decide what to do with the cash. Maybe pay vacation bills?

Sold some of the EWX I had bought this past week and bought BND.

We are still overweight in equities with these trades since on Friday and Monday I had moved almost 15% of the portfolio from fixed income to equities.

I'd like to think I've made some money by all this action this week over doing nothing, but I am sure my overall portfolio is down from last Thursday. I just hope it is not down as much as it would be without these trades.

 

[LOL!]

I still have a few hundred thousand dollars in equities to sell, so I have submitted some limit orders this morning. I'm selling VTI that I bought in the past week. With the proceeds, I will buy BND. So still unwinding the purchases made on Monday.

Time to go walk the dog. After I come back, I will survey the scene and probably submit more orders.

 

[utrecht]

My weekly SPY 188.5/184.5 put spread has just about reached full value of $1.50 with SPY at 196.90 Its about as safely above the 188.50 strike with expiry tomorrow as you can get so I will do nothing and let everything expire worthless and keep my premium. As it turns out I would've made more money buy not spreading and just sticking with the naked 188.5's but thats results oriented thinking The move was the correct one on a risk / reward basis.

I don't post my day trading results because I do too many of them but this one was interesting. I put in an order to buy WSM at 76.25. I got half the order filled and the stock immediately popped. I sold it 15 secs later at 77.10 for a 1.1% profit. Too bad the whole order didnt get filled

 

[LOL!]

Back from dog walking and I was pleasantly surprised to see that my limit order had gone through. So prices have exceeded the closing prices of last Friday when I started buying.

Now that others are not fearful, there is no reason for me to be greedy, so I am submitting more orders to sell VTI and as I type, VTI is going for a nice little uptick.

 

[utrecht]

I just opened a Sep/Oct 105 put calendar trade on Apple for $1.39. I'm short the Sept 105 puts and long the Oct 105 puts. I'm looking to profit on another short term dip.

 

[NW-Bound]

Now that others are not fearful, there is no reason for me to be greedy...

Are you saying the market timers on this forum have been "Wheee'ing" too much? If so, not from this guy. I did not buy much, and what I bought have not made much money. No Wheee'ing here.

 

[Mulligan]

Are you saying the market timers on this forum have been "Wheee'ing" too much? If so, not from this guy. I did not buy much, and what I bought have not made much money. No Wheee'ing here.

Dont feel bad that you are apparently the only one who doesn't score big riches in a falling market on this forum.... As you know, NW, I sold 10k out of my mutual fund at the absolute bottom on Tuesday. The only fool here, and I will stand up and own it! But I am "rich" up $140 in 2 days on my NGHCZ trade from Monday.


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[LOL!]

And a great day to unwind things. A little head-fake in the afternoon, but strong through the close.

I'm glad I bought BND early in the day before someone mouthed off about interest rates and made it go up.

I am now back to Asset Allocation nirvana, so unless something drastic happens … I go back to waiting for the September FOMC meeting.

Portfolio is UP from close of last week, so not a a bad week at all. Not at all.

 

[Fermion]

Dont feel bad that you are apparently the only one who doesn't score big riches in a falling market on this forum.... As you know, NW, I sold 10k out of my mutual fund at the absolute bottom on Tuesday. The only fool here, and I will stand up and own it! But I am "rich" up $140 in 2 days on my NGHCZ trade from Monday.


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I think we all lost in the falling market but a few had some cash to deploy at the right time. NW would have been in that crowd but he was playing golf, or fishing, or polishing his Class C or something. I made $7400 so far cash since Monday in trading account but I think our 401K + IRA is down about $35,000 still.

 

[NW-Bound]

I went up to my high-country place to escape the heat. ATT had data roaming agreement up there with the local carrier a few months ago, but suddenly there's only voice and no data anymore. So, I missed out on all the fun.

I will be going up again soon. Wonder how much money I will miss out once more.

 

[Bnk1]

I went up to my high-country place to escape the heat. ATT had data roaming agreement up there with the local carrier a few months ago, but suddenly there's only voice and no data anymore. So, I missed out on all the fun.

I will be going up again soon. Wonder how much money I will miss out once more.

Don't worry - charts suggest we will retest the lows around 182 on SPY, so you'll have another shot at buying ...


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[Fermion]

Not so sure about that. My tea leaves this morning said we may have already had the low for the year.

 

[NW-Bound]

Either way is fine with me. If it goes down, I may buy some. If it goes up, I may sell some. And I do not necessarily buy or sell the same stuff. I have different stocks and ETFs in different sectors, and buy/sell as it fits my fancy.

 

[papadad111]

Exited ERX position late on Friday for a gain of 1.75 per share. Taxable account.

Gain offset by a prior short term loss that carried forward from prior year.

 

[utrecht]

My weekly SPY 188.5/184.5 put spread has just about reached full value of $1.50 with SPY at 196.90 Its about as safely above the 188.50 strike with expiry tomorrow as you can get so I will do nothing and let everything expire worthless and keep my premium. As it turns out I would've made more money buy not spreading and just sticking with the naked 188.5's but thats results oriented thinking The move was the correct one on a risk / reward basis.

I don't post my day trading results because I do too many of them but this one was interesting. I put in an order to buy WSM at 76.25. I got half the order filled and the stock immediately popped. I sold it 15 secs later at 77.10 for a 1.1% profit. Too bad the whole order didnt get filled

All of my weekly SPY options expired worthless allowing me to keep all of my $1.50 premium per spread. I will most likely make a similar trade this week.

 

[utrecht]

I just opened a Sep/Oct 105 put calendar trade on Apple for $1.39. I'm short the Sept 105 puts and long the Oct 105 puts. I'm looking to profit on another short term dip.

I also opened a Sep/Oct 70 put calendar spread on WYNN on Thur. WYNN was trading at 78.25 and I paid $1.37 for the spread. WYNN is a total dog of a stock and I fully expect it to drop close to 70 sometime soon.

 

[utrecht]

I sold weekly SPY 192.5 puts for $1.15 earlier when SPY was at 197.67. I normally never use a strike that far OOM, but the VIX is high enough to collect good premium with less risk.