Longest running Bull Market recorded

[street]

I could find another thread on it but thought it was interesting. I don't have much to add but to say WOW! I hope I never see the longest Bear Market ever recorded in my life time. LOL

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/22/lon...to-go-on-because-us-is-best-game-in-town.html

 

[jimbee]

I could find another thread on it but thought it was interesting. I don't have much to add but to say WOW! I hope I never see the longest Bear Market ever recorded in my life time. LOL

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/22/lon...to-go-on-because-us-is-best-game-in-town.html

Didn't the S&P 500 have a greater than 20% drop in 2011? I think the drop was counting intraday lows, so maybe that's the difference.

 

[USGrant1962]

Didn't the S&P 500 have a greater than 20% drop in 2011? I think the drop was counting intraday lows, so maybe that's the difference.

That was 19.4% according to Yardeni. I believe that some other indexes did hit bear territory then, though don't recall which.

https://www.yardeni.com/pub/sp500corrbear.pdf

 

[jimbee]

Thanks, interesting summary.

 

[SecondCor521]

Didn't the S&P 500 have a greater than 20% drop in 2011? I think the drop was counting intraday lows, so maybe that's the difference.

Bob Pisani on CNBC said two things the other day:

1. They don't count intraday lows, only closing values. The reasoning he mentioned was that they don't have intraday records going back very far in history (and I guess want to be consistent with historical pullbacks that happened before the intraday records existed).

2. The 20% is a bit arbitrary. He said that there have been several 19% pullbacks during this bull market.

I think that they track pullbacks independently by each major index, so the Dow could be in a bear market at 20% and the S&P not at 19% and the NASDAQ not at 17% or whatever.

 

[NYEXPAT]

Most Wall Street guys believe 1982-2000 was the longest (despite the 1987 hiccup)! More interesting to me is the divergence between the US markets and the rest of the world!

 

[SecondCor521]

Most Wall Street guys believe 1982-2000 was the longest (despite the 1987 hiccup)! More interesting to me is the divergence between the US markets and the rest of the world!

CNBC (Can you tell what I watch at the gym?) says that the current bull eclipsed the 1990-2000 bull this week. So they think there must have been some sort of reset/pullback/something in 1990 that restarted the clock.

 

[audreyh1]

There was a 1990-1991 recession, and the Dow dropped 18%. Don’t know about the S&P. So was there really a recession without a bear market? Maybe the 1987 25% crash (bear) had already taken out some of the hot air.

 

[SecondCor521]

There was a 1990-1991 recession, and the Dow dropped 18%. Don’t know about the S&P. So was there really a recession without a bear market? Maybe the 1987 25% crash (bear) had already taken out some of the hot air.

That's probably what someone decided reset the clock.

I had a thread on this a while back. Personally I'm hopeful that the 2015/2016 pullback reset the clock and we're now in year 3 of a young bull market. But I know that some people would consider me to be too optimistic.

 

[target2019]

I've read about the bear and bull rules in various stories, and have decided there will be a whee moment in the future.
https://eresearch.fidelity.com/eres...ectors/si_business_cycle.jhtml?tab=sibusiness
So, the stock market ride whee comes how long after the business cycle whee?
Any other rides with a wheeeeee I should know about?

 

[DrRoy]

Most Wall Street guys believe 1982-2000 was the longest (despite the 1987 hiccup)! More interesting to me is the divergence between the US markets and the rest of the world!

1987 wasn't a hiccup at the time! It was a full on panic and disaster.

 

[marko]

1987 wasn't a hiccup at the time! It was a full on panic and disaster.

My boss "lost" $1MM that day. Didn't seem to have bothered him though but he did leave work early.
He later confessed that he bought into the dip (some dip!)

 

[UnrealizedPotential]

Didn't the S&P 500 have a greater than 20% drop in 2011? I think the drop was counting intraday lows, so maybe that's the difference.

Bingo! That's the point that has me questioning what a bear market is. I think it happened in 2011, others say no. I'm not going out on a limb and saying that it reached bear market territory in 2011, but I still have my doubts.


If a bear did happen in 2011, then the bull market is not as long in the tooth. If you ask different experts , you will get different answers. I don't know, but I wonder.

 

[NYEXPAT]

1987 wasn't a hiccup at the time! It was a full on panic and disaster.

Depends on your perspective? For me"Black Monday"was the best day of my life (monetarily speaking) and a pretty okay day in the grander scheme of things!

 

[gcgang]

Wheeeeeeeeee!!!

 

[DEC-1982]

That was 19.4% according to Yardeni. I believe that some other indexes did hit bear territory then, though don't recall which.

https://www.yardeni.com/pub/sp500corrbear.pdf

There are multiple definitions of a bear market.

Is a 19.8% (<20.0%) drop a bear market? I think that's how much the S&P500 dropped in 1990. The following link with a history of bear markets does not show one in 1990.

11 historic bear markets - Business - Stocks & economy | NBC News

-

On the other hand, Wikipedia shows both 1990 and 2011 as having a bear market.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_stock_market_crashes_and_bear_markets

"S&P 500 entered a short-lived bear market between 02nd May 2011 (intraday high: 1,370.58) and 04 October 2011 (intraday low: 1,074.77), a decline of 21.58%. The stock market rebounded thereafter and ended the year flat. "

So it seems that we could be in the longest bull market. Or not.

 

[DEC-1982]

This link says it well.

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-08-23/what-does-the-longest-bull-market-mean-a-debate

"The U.S. bull market became the longest on record yesterday. It’s been 3,453 days since the market hit bottom in March 2009, surpassing the run that began in October 1990 and ended when the dot-com bubble burst in March 2000.

Or did it? According to Yardeni Research Inc., the bull market that ended with the dot-com bust began in December 1987 — not October 1990 — and lasted 4,494 days.
By that count, the current bull market won’t steal the record for another three years."

 

[street]

Thanks that was a good read.

 

[Oz investor]

Bingo! That's the point that has me questioning what a bear market is. I think it happened in 2011, others say no. I'm not going out on a limb and saying that it reached bear market territory in 2011, but I still have my doubts.


If a bear did happen in 2011, then the bull market is not as long in the tooth. If you ask different experts , you will get different answers. I don't know, but I wonder.

i saw 2011 as a nasty correction ( in Australia ) but i was a market novice then , and probably too inexperienced to feel the panic ( after all , i was starting to buy , not heavily committed and shredding paper gains ).

 

[GravitySucks]

That's probably what someone decided reset the clock.

I had a thread on this a while back. Personally I'm hopeful that the 2015/2016 pullback reset the clock and we're now in year 3 of a young bull market. But I know that some people would consider me to be too optimistic.

That was my first pull back since retiring (I'm expecting more of them.). It was enough to get me to change my AA after it recovered so I'm with you on counting it as a bear.

 

[Amethyst]

Only one "whee" counts, and she's not been heard from.

Wheeeeeeeeee!!!

 

[Dtail]

Only one "whee" counts, and she's not been heard from.

Don't encourage her. Markets doing well today.

 

[jjflyman]

Someday soon (maybe very soon considering what's happing in Washington) we are going to see a panic sell off that nobody saw coming, so don't get too "comfortable" with the gains

 

[ExFlyBoy5]

Someday soon (maybe very soon considering what's happing in Washington) we are going to see a panic sell off that nobody saw coming, so don't get too "comfortable" with the gains

The talking heads have been yelling about a sell off for at least a year. I am tired of listening to them, to be quite frank.

 

[Dtail]

Someday soon (maybe very soon considering what's happing in Washington) we are going to see a panic sell off that nobody saw coming, so don't get too "comfortable" with the gains

Eventually yes, but most of us have set ourselves up for this event and will ride it through.