Market correction anxiety

This AM VIX @ 7AM CST Dec 6

Seems that this bellwether was running @ about 29, during last sell off, and pundits were citing this all the time. Being as I don't understand this, it doesn't matter I guess, but I wonder.
Anyway, looks like about implied open for today's DJIA is about -400. S&P circuit breakers clicked in.

Interesting.
 
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This morning's futures went from -406 to -394! A positive trend, no?

The way I look at it is that in '08 my portfolio dropped almost a mil. This year, I'm flat YTD. Some years are just better/worse than others.

If you think the market is a casino, you're not playing the game correctly.
 
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marko said:
This morning's futures went from -406 to -394! A positive trend, no?

The way I look at it is that in '08 my portfolio dropped almost a mil. This year, I'm flat YTD. Some years are just better/worse than others.

If you think the market is a casino, you're not playing the game correctly.
Click to expand...

The trend is your friend.

I invest based on market rhymes.
 
Dtail said:
At least you have entertainment at the casino when you inevitably lose money.:cool:
Click to expand...

I used to live in Las Vegas. There's potentially ore entertainment value investing. In Vegas you kinda know from the start you'll probably lose money.

In the stock market there's more thrills and the big loser is always a surprise ending
 
Exactly , Old Shooter.

Not too bad a start today, with down 300 at the open. And now wandering between 450 and 500 down. All the panicky media stories regarding the arrest, i expected a four figure down at the open, with who knows where from there. perhaps the relatively positive economic news, on jobs and productivity, have helped moderate the reaction. Does seem to have stepped all over the possibility of a Santa Claus rally however. too bad, but whatever. Enjoy. And yes, it is good to not have to sell anything.

:popcorn:
 
It looks like it may be time to purge the Nervous Nellies , the Get-Rich-Quick Folks, and the Know-It-All Newbies from the ranks of stock investors. After nearly a decade long run-up, that may take some time.


In about a month I will be re-balancing. That may be a bit more interesting than usual in 2019.
 
jjflyman said:
"Investing" is now starting to feel a lot like going to the casino
Click to expand...

I'm feeling the EXACT same way.

Markets don't tend to drop 5-6% in 2 days (!) based on essentially no real "major" news. The fact this market has is 100% IMHO showing what a casino it has become, indeed.

I long for the "olden" days when buy and sell decisions were being made by real people trading on fundamentals, vs algorithms trading on whether the sun is in the third quadrant of jupiter, the S&P chart is showing a triple lutz inverted backflip pattern, some random politician in Washington tweeting that they are not ordering Chinese take-out for dinner today, or other such malarkey.

This ain't our father's stock market, that's for sure.
 
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News about the VIX: .... UP 25%

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jjkinahan/2018/12/06/market-remains-under-pressure-amid-fizzling-optimism-on-trade-worry-about-yield-inversion/#60be59972530

Part of the article:

Investors appeared to worry that the Huawei news could set back talks between the U.S. and China over a trade dispute that has been simmering for months and has raised concerns about global economic growth.
Click to expand...

A lot tied up with China-U.S. talks on tariffs. Soybean farmers have good reason to be worried... The Apple/Huawie/Samsung battle is in the middle.

A broader view of the "Why's".
 
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Chuckanut said:
It looks like it may be time to purge the Nervous Nellies , the Get-Rich-Quick Folks, and the Know-It-All Newbies from the ranks of stock investors. After nearly a decade long run-up, that may take some time. ...
Click to expand...
One of my favorite Buffet quotations:

“The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.”
 
We have the strongest economy, with the strongest corporate earnings, in decades. The market should be skyrocketing with the economy we have.

All this talk about "slowdown" in 2019 seems unfounded at best and suspect/politically motivated at worst. Ditto the Fed decision to rise rates. Let's hope they come to their senses, but it does make you go "hmmm" that they insist on rising rates in the face of an alleged upcoming "slowdown" that the media is hawking non-stop..one may reasonably think that there's an ulterior motive to all that..
 
On a serious note, I wonder how many readers of threads like this get a level of comfort knowing that they're not alone in 1) their concern and 2) holding the course.

I've learned a lot here in the past 10 years, but I know in '08 this forum gave me just a bit more confidence in staying put than I would have had otherwise.
 
marko said:
On a serious note, I wonder how many readers of threads like this get a level of comfort knowing that they're not alone in 1) their concern and 2) holding the course.

I've learned a lot here in the past 10 years, but I know in '08 this forum gave me just a bit more confidence in staying put than I would have had otherwise.
Click to expand...


That’s an interesting point(s). I didn’t join e-r.org until 2011 so didn’t have the benefit of viewpoints expressed here in ‘08-‘09.

Personally, my concerns have changed since ER. I think it’s partially because when you’re working TOWARD retirement, you might be more sensitive to daily headlines and bipolar market swings. Maybe, too, concerns about your job stability add to feeling vulnerable.

Afterward, you might be more able to roll with the punches and take a longer term view. Members who post their thoughts from that long-term viewpoint help maintain a positive attitude.
 
RetireSoon said:
I'm feeling the EXACT same way.

Markets don't tend to drop 5-6% in 2 days (!) based on essentially no real "major" news. The fact this market has is 100% IMHO showing what a casino it has become, indeed.

I long for the "olden" days when buy and sell decisions were being made by real people trading on fundamentals, vs algorithms trading on whether the sun is in the third quadrant of jupiter, the S&P chart is showing a triple lutz inverted backflip pattern, some random politician in Washington tweeting that they are not ordering Chinese take-out for dinner today, or other such malarkey.

This ain't our father's stock market, that's for sure.
Click to expand...
A 5 percent drop over 2 days is far from rare.
Here's top 20 one day drops. All over 5%

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_daily_changes_in_the_Dow_Jones_Industrial_Average
 
marko said:
... this forum gave me just a bit more confidence in staying put than I would have had otherwise.
Click to expand...
Yes. FAs are frequently bashed here, but the ones that keep their clients on course provide this same valuable service.

I was talking to an FA one time and he said: "Look, if once or twice I keep a client from bailing out when the market tanks I have more than earned the total amount of fees that they will ever pay me."

There is some truth in that. Coaching helps, whether here or from an FA.
 
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So is anyone buying? I did a little buying at the end of Oct (?) or so when the market went down to about similar levels but I think I'm going to stay put this time unless the market drops another 5%+
 
interesting point. I have never had an FA nor ever expect that i will in the future.

Always assumed that all but a very few were always churning their clients money, as that is how they make the most for themselves. So, a "scary' market would be a gold mine since clients in ignorance might assume then that selling was a "good' thing.

if you have or even know of a FA that would give the advice you describe, then such a one is worth their fee.
 
no buying yet here. Too busy today with life in general: grocery shopping, lunch out, mammogram, dog walking, cat and dog medicating and feeding, etc.

nice to see it coming back a bit right now. Wonder if the institutional activity that usually occurs in the late afternoon will shore it up with some large scale buying, or conversely drop it more with large scale selling.
 
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