Mortality at Age 65

[txtig]

I recently received an email from an old classmate from my high school class of 1971. This guy keeps up with as many of our classmates as he can, and regularly sends out reunion info, etc. He also keeps up with the deaths of family members of classmates and the deaths of classmates. This recent email had a listing of all of our classmates that had passed so far. Fifty-five of our graduating class of approximately 500 have died to date. About 11% of us.

I thought this was a high number, but then consulted a Social Security actuarial table which showed that an average of 20% of men and 12% of women pass by age 65. So, I guess we are doing ok as a group as compared to the national average. It’s not quite an apples to apples comparison because the SS numbers are based on the rate of deaths since birth, and my numbers are based on deaths of a group since age 18. But, I doubt that difference would alter the percentages very much.

It still was a sobering moment to read that list and see how many of my classmates were no longer with us, including many that I was once close with, and some that I had known since grade school. It reminds one that our time here is limited and made me think about how I need to make the most of the finite time I have remaining. It also made me thankful that I was already FIRE’d and that I have the ability to maximize the things in my life that are meaningful and that bring me happiness.

 

[golfnut]

I'm from the class of 1973. Not sure how many are still upright. Over the last 10 years have seen a disturbing number of friends die of natural causes and not living as long as their parents did. The vast majority led pretty clean lives before their demise.


I realize genes play a big part iro our longevity but not as much as some people think.


Sometimes I wonder if it has something to do with the modern day diet (processed food) and stressful white collar jobs.

 

[omni550]

I realize genes play a big part iro our longevity but not as much as some people think.

Sometimes I wonder if it has something to do with the modern day diet (processed food) and stressful white collar jobs.

According to this article, a family tree study of 400 million people conducted by Ancestry indicates that DNA contributes about 7% towards longevity. This is much less than is commonly believed. They claim that lifespans that seem to run in families are due to people picking partners that are similar to themselves.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/...ople-reveals-DNA-barely-impact-long-live.html

omni

 

[omni550]

I recently received an email from an old classmate from my high school class of 1971. This guy keeps up with as many of our classmates as he can, and regularly sends out reunion info, etc. He also keeps up with the deaths of family members of classmates and the deaths of classmates. This recent email had a listing of all of our classmates that had passed so far. Fifty-five of our graduating class of approximately 500 have died to date. About 11% of us.

I thought this was a high number, but then consulted a Social Security actuarial table which showed that an average of 20% of men and 12% of women pass by age 65. So, I guess we are doing ok as a group as compared to the national average. It’s not quite an apples to apples comparison because the SS numbers are based on the rate of deaths since birth, and my numbers are based on deaths of a group since age 18. But, I doubt that difference would alter the percentages very much.

It still was a sobering moment to read that list and see how many of my classmates were no longer with us, including many that I was once close with, and some that I had known since grade school. It reminds one that our time here is limited and made me think about how I need to make the most of the finite time I have remaining. It also made me thankful that I was already FIRE’d and that I have the ability to maximize the things in my life that are meaningful and that bring me happiness.

My class had their 50th reunion over Labor Day weekend. I saw an "In Memorium" board among the reunion photos that were posted on facebook. Fifty-two of our 715-member class were listed. That's 7%, which I thought was high...but I guess it's not.

I found it a very sobering moment, too.

omni

 

[Nemo2]

65? Don't worry about it. At 75 or 85 there'll be far less of them dying each year.

 

[Independent]

I thought this was a high number, but then consulted a Social Security actuarial table which showed that an average of 20% of men and 12% of women pass by age 65. So, I guess we are doing ok as a group as compared to the national average. It’s not quite an apples to apples comparison because the SS numbers are based on the rate of deaths since birth, and my numbers are based on deaths of a group since age 18. But, I doubt that difference would alter the percentages very much.

You are correct, adjusting for age 18 doesn't change much.

The adjustment is straightforward, just divide the number alive at 65 by the number alive at 18.

Assuming you are using this table https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html

For males:... 80,227 / 98,941 = 81.1% of those alive at 18 survived to 65.
For females: 87,769 / 99,188 = 88.5%

The SS table above assumes that when your classmates were 40 (or any other age), they experienced the mortality rates of 2015. That's not the best estimate.
This table is closer to historic experience https://www.ssa.gov/oact/NOTES/as120/LifeTables_Tbl_7_1950.html

Males:.... 75,900 / 95,267 = 79.7%
Females: 84,655 / 96,452 = 87.8%

Yes, your class has done better than average. (though it's also possible your classmate hasn't been notified of all the deaths)

But, that's all irrelevant to your bigger point. Yep, I've fortunate to have lived to 71. Lots of my classmates didn't. For starters, some probably died in Vietnam soon after graduation.

And, I was fortunate enough to retire at 59 and have some years of decent health and decent finances after working. Gotta count the blessings.

 

[Independent]

65? Don't worry about it. At 75 or 85 there'll be far less of them dying each year.

Good point, but you're off by a little. The SS actuaries think the annual number of deaths will peak at ages 86 and 88.

 

[Dtail]

Good point, but you're off by a little. The SS actuaries think the annual number of deaths will peak at ages 86 and 88.

Nemo2 brings us comic relief and great travel stories, so he gets a pass.

 

[mystang52]

I graduated college in '73. In college, I was a member of a "house plan" (akin to a fraternity). We had a reunion back in 2013, that included graduating classes of from '70 to about '78. Motivation to do this was likewise because we're not getting any younger.

We are fortunate, only 2 of us - that we know of - are no longer here. That reunion was a great success, and many of us have since kept in touch.

 

[aja8888]

I'm from a graduating class of about 125 in 1961 (in Connecticut) and those kinds of informational emails stopped years ago.

I don't live back where I went to school and have not had any contact with anyone in my class for years. Many moved to Florida when they retired. Our old high school web page has very little about older alumni.

We (remaining) are invisible!

 

[btdt22]

deleted- not relevant

 

[txtig]

Yes, your class has done better than average. (though it's also possible your classmate hasn't been notified of all the deaths).

I suspect that you’re correct about not being notified about all of the deaths. He does a pretty good job of keeping up with a large group of folks, but I know there were a lot that moved away and never kept in touch with anybody. And, thanks for cranking through the math on analyzing the numbers.

 

[braumeister]

65? Don't worry about it. At 75 or 85 there'll be far less of them dying each year.

Good point, but you're off by a little. The SS actuaries think the annual number of deaths will peak at ages 86 and 88.

I think it was George Burns who said you just have to make it to 100, because very few people die after that.

 

[imoldernu]

Coincidence. Just recently, I received an update on my 1954 H.S. class, from my the, best friend, who I hadn't been in touch with since 2004. He was the archivist for our class.
There was one more reunion in 2014. Surprisingly, out of a class of 205, there were 75 who were still alive.

Jeanie and I graduated together, so going through our '54 yearbook was an adventure, remembering. it was quite an adventure.

Next, we'll go through my college yearbook from Bowdoin. We dated from 1954 to 1958, and married in '58. Four years in between... she at Boston College in Mass, and me, in Maine. Though Bowdoin was a male school then, she knew as many of my classmates as I did. Long commute for party weekends.

My life expectancy based on physical health calculators, ranges from 6 to 9 years, but my memory problems will likely mean just a few more years. Somewhere on ER, I think there was a another recent thread on the subject. I'll look for it to see what lies I wrote there...

 

[Tekward]

According to this article, a family tree study of 400 million people conducted by Ancestry indicates that DNA contributes about 7% towards longevity. This is much less than is commonly believed. They claim that lifespans that seem to run in families are due to people picking partners that are similar to themselves.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/...ople-reveals-DNA-barely-impact-long-live.html

omni

I remember being surprised (relieved?) when I learned this in the great book Being Mortal by Atul Gawande. Personally I wasn't anticipating great longevity based upon my parents early passing (Mom-38, Dad-55, but they led unhealthy lives). But I am working hard to be healthy (M-61, RHR <50 BPM).

Amusing side-bar, I was reading this book in California with some visits to a very long-lived family, and when I asked them what % of longevity is linked to heredity they guessed 80%, 70% and then changed the topic.

Great quote:
“It turns out that inheritance has surprisingly little influence on longevity. James Vaupel, of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, in Rostock, Germany, notes that only 3 percent of how long you’ll live, compared with the average, is explained by your parents’ longevity; by contrast, up to 90 percent of how tall you are is explained by your parents’ height. Even genetically identical twins vary widely in life span: the typical gap is more than fifteen years. If our genes explain less than we imagined, the classical wear-and-tear model may explain more than we knew.”
― Atul Gawande, Being Mortal: Medicine and What Matters in the End

 

[HadEnuff]

I too, am 65, and I also graduated high school in '71. I have since moved away from my home town, and live about 500 miles from where I grew up. I have what seems to me to be a disproportionate number of friends who also graduated, albeit from different high schools, in '71, and we all have similar stories, and feelings to what txtig expresses in the OP.
My wife, class of '75, lost 2 siblings within 9 months of each other, in 2017, and BOTH of them were from the same class of '71. They weren't twins. They also worked for the same employer.
It was a graduating class of over 500, in a small town, and when the first sibling passed, the calling hours were like a high school reunion. 7 months later, the second one passed and it was like a horrible nightmare repeating itself, all of the same people, all of the same stories.
Probably 95% of the people hadn't seen each other since the previous wake...

I'm beginning to believe that none of us will get out of here alive.

 

[bada bing]

My circle of close friends in high school was 6 guys, plus my 2 brothers. I've been a best man at 6 weddings. My 2 brothers are still doing well, but of my high school buddies, 4 of the six of us are dead. My remaining high school buddy is going through radiation and chemo for prostate cancer now. Not a good average for age 59.

If you live long enough, you're going to bury a lot of friends.

 

[RAE]

I'm from the class of 1973. Not sure how many are still upright. Over the last 10 years have seen a disturbing number of friends die of natural causes and not living as long as their parents did. The vast majority led pretty clean lives before their demise.

I realize genes play a big part iro our longevity but not as much as some people think.

Sometimes I wonder if it has something to do with the modern day diet (processed food) and stressful white collar jobs.

Class of '73 here also. Not sure how many of my classmates are no longer here, but I know of several. Several others are not very healthy. There's no doubt in my mind that diet and lifestyle are major factors influencing health and longevity. Sure, there are people that do everything right and still die too young, but they are in the minority. Unless you know someone very well and see them often, you really don't know what their diet and lifestyle (and stress level) are like.

 

[timo2]

I'm also class of 1971, and we have 26 known deceased out of a graduating class of 178. I tried looking obits, but only found a few and those were cancer in their 50's.

I also recall that my father's WW2 army fighter pilot group and my Grandfathers WW1 infantry army unit eventually ceased having their annual reunions because there were too few members left to have a reunion.