But what about the planners themselves—have financial markets' recent behavior changed their own thinking about sustainable distribution rates? Has Bengen's basic analysis from 1994, even when only used as a basic starting point for an annually updated, client-specific annual distribution rate determination—been rendered obsolete? Or, for that matter, have all of the history-based investment return assumptions for various asset classes been called into question by recent events?
"Absolutely," says Elizabeth Jetton.
"I think that most of us think this is a 'black swan'"—that is, a high-impact anomaly beyond the scope of normal expectation. "Or is this the level of volatility that we're going to have to live with for a long time? I keep hoping for a new asset class," she jokes.
Stephen Barnes says he and his colleagues are "spending an inordinate amount of time rethinking our strategy. The issue going forward is, will we have different experiences than we have had for the last 30 years? My answer on that a tentative yes."