O&G stocks

[BeachOrCity]

I'd be interested to hear why you think Oxy warrants are undervalued?

When I purchased them early last week I got them for about a 2% or less premium to the in the money differential.

The warrants are good until 2027 and are @$22. I paid $26.33 for the warrants.
Stock was trading around 47/48 that day. It was less than $1 premium.

So basically I got 2x leverage for 5 years on this stock I am bullish on for almost no premium. (If it declines I get 2x the losses as well).

I suppose I could get that via margin as well at 3-4% per year, but I think the warrant was an exceptional value.

Bonus, it came out mr buffet bought alot more on Friday and oil prices surging. Good timing (luck) position is up over 30% already...but thats just luck so quickly.

 

[finnski1]

COP closed above $100 today, another new all-time high.

Yeah I know I sold 2/3rds of mine last week at $93. Not complaining. Locked in long term gains in a TIRA so no capital gains issues. Of course at the time that was also an all time high and I had been holding a long time and I underestimated the extent of the huge oil price rally caused by the Ukraine situation. COP hit a low of under $86 on Feb 24th and by March 2nd just less than 4 trading days later hit $99.97. Oh well I still have 1/3 rd left. Was even better when I was getting nearly $3.00 in annual dividends before they cut it way back. Still not bad at $.46 quarterly($1.84 annual) dividend.

 

[Rocky mtn high]

Not trying to high jack the tread, hopefully quick question. I have 1,000% gain in OXY warrants. If I sell what is the capital gain I must pay? Gain is six figure

 

[BeachOrCity]

Not trying to high jack the tread, hopefully quick question. I have 1,000% gain in OXY warrants. If I sell what is the capital gain I must pay? Gain is six figure

Same rules as if you purchased an option and sell the option. If you hold for 1YR+ its long term.

If you exercise the warrant, it is different.

 

[njhowie]

Yeah I know I sold 2/3rds of mine last week at $93. Not complaining. Locked in long term gains in a TIRA so no capital gains issues. Of course at the time that was also an all time high and I had been holding a long time and I underestimated the extent of the huge oil price rally caused by the Ukraine situation. COP hit a low of under $86 on Feb 24th and by March 2nd just less than 4 trading days later hit $99.97. Oh well I still have 1/3 rd left. Was even better when I was getting nearly $3.00 in annual dividends before they cut it way back. Still not bad at $.46 quarterly($1.84 annual) dividend.

Your thinking should be "The shares were under $30 not all that long ago, I did extremely well".

I remember when the dividend was at $3, and CEO was adamant they would not cut the dividend, even raised it by a penny to show he meant it...then one month later they cut it by 75%. Somehow the liar is still CEO.

My thinking is "How much higher can the shares realistically go"? Maybe it's got one last hurrah left in it if oil spikes to $150 or they make some kind of M&A announcement. I'm still slowly selling mom's shares, but she still has a lot, and I definitely do not want to see it go even sub-$75 again...which could happen in the span of a couple weeks. However, it's in a taxable account and don't want her saddled with lots of capital gains taxes either...but then on the other hand, even paying capital gains on shares at $100+ is better than watching the shares sink back down again. She is so loaded with COP, PSX, and XOM that my head spins every time oil sinks.

 

[finnski1]

Your thinking should be "The shares were under $30 not all that long ago, I did extremely well". Yes

I remember when the dividend was at $3, and CEO was adamant they would not cut the dividend, even raised it by a penny to show he meant it...then one month later they cut it by 75%. Somehow the liar is still CEO.
remember that too.


My thinking is "How much higher can the shares realistically go"? Maybe it's got one last hurrah left in it if oil spikes to $150 or they make some kind of M&A announcement. I'm still slowly selling mom's shares, but she still has a lot, and I definitely do not want to see it go even sub-$75 again...which could happen in the span of a couple weeks. No argument here either. However, it's in a taxable account and don't want her saddled with lots of capital gains taxes either...but then on the other hand, even paying capital gains on shares at $100+ is better than watching the shares sink back down again. She is so loaded with COP, PSX, and XOM that my head spins every time oil sinks.

I agree mostly. I also didn't want to be left holding the bag anymore either. Rode it down a few more times than I like. Guess that's the nature of oil stocks. Still have 1/3 rd left to figure out what to do with as well.

 

[Montecfo]

Brent futures at $128. WTI $125.

 

[augam]

Brent futures at $128. WTI $125.

Yikes

 

[NW-Bound]

Brent crude was at $131.15 yesterday, $112.45 today.

The market has a broad rally. Energy sector is down today, with the two energy ETFs XLE and OIH down -3.06% and -4.20% respectively.

 

[aja8888]

Brent crude was at $131.15 yesterday, $112.45 today.

The market has a broad rally. Energy sector is down today, with the two energy ETFs XLE and OIH down -3.06% and -4.20% respectively.

Yep, OPEC talks planned by UAE about increasing production. But that's not a guarantee that much will happen in that regard.

They can talk all they want, and maybe produce more, but it's all about demand that controls the price.

 

[NW-Bound]

I am not selling any of my energy stocks, nor writing any call option on them.

Many of these stocks are not back up to pre-Covid level, while the supply level of oil is tighter than it was back then, I think.

 

[Montecfo]

I like oil for the short, mid and longer terms because a number of factors have constrained supply but demand will continue to grow as economies open more fully.

"Green" policies have hurt supply while doing very little to affect demand.

And I think if more nations join the Russian energy ban we could get a spike to $200 per barrel later this year.

When the current crises ends pricing and oil stocks will drop sharply, which could signal a new entry point for longer term bulls.

 

[ktdtx]

Maybe a mistake but I have repeatedly been offered the opportunity to learn the old sayings "pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered" and "no one ever went broke taking a profit."
Previously I was a buy and never sell guy.



I sold my COP at about 93--regretted it for a while until I realized I might have finally learned a lesson

 

[Montecfo]

Maybe a mistake but I have repeatedly been offered the opportunity to learn the old sayings "pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered" and "no one ever went broke taking a profit."
Previously I was a buy and never sell guy.



I sold my COP at about 93--regretted it for a while until I realized I might have finally learned a lesson

I call it the "pig rule". A good rule.

Plus this could change very rapidly. As usual a big chunk of the price rise is speculation about future events that have not happened. If any of these happened, a lot of froth would leave the market pretty much immediately:

-Truce in Ukraine
-US deal with Venezuela (a shameful adventure in my estimation)
-End of o&g sanctions against Iran
-ovwrt reversal of policies hamstringing US oil companies

Most of these not clearly in view but that could change rapidly.

 

[finnski1]

Maybe a mistake but I have repeatedly been offered the opportunity to learn the old sayings "pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered" and "no one ever went broke taking a profit."
Previously I was a buy and never sell guy.



I sold my COP at about 93--regretted it for a while until I realized I might have finally learned a lesson

Sold 2/3rds of mine at $93 as well. Still have 1/3rd sitting around $99 and 1/2 today. Have had it for along time. I rode it all the way down to $21 in the pandemic and managed not to sell. Figured I would cash in on most of it for now. Who knows from here?

 

[someday soon]

sold my OXY a few days ago ( too early ), but holding onto VET for awhile longer.
Amazing after the super low lows in early 2020

 

[Winemaker]

Still holding COP, OXY, OXTWS, CNX, ENB, DCP, CEIX.

 

[NW-Bound]

I just counted the following positions (not in any particular order) in my portfolio: AMLP, OXY, HAL, SLB, FCG, XOM, OVV, SM, PXD, NAT, TNK, VLO, FCG, LPG, OXWT, and the ETFs XLE, XOP, and OIH.

Sounds like a lot, but they add up to less than 8% of portfolio. They are less than 10% of the equity portion of the portfolio, not counting what may be inside some MFs that I still have.

 

[Montecfo]

I'm still holding all my oils and recently added SHEL on valuation and LNG assets.

I'm considering jettisoning my independent producers FANG, EOG, MTDR, and possibly APA.

I would keep the integrateds (COP and SHEL)and WMB (midstream) and maybe add refining, which I would expect to do better after oil has peaked.

All my oils are LTCG at this point, or are in tax deferred.

Concern is there more downside on oil now than upside, though I think oils remain undervalued for this pricing environment.

 

[Rocky mtn high]

Still holding oxy, but it has gained so much going trim back some. It sure has helped cover some of my larger portfolio losses!

 

[BeachOrCity]

While your refiners have had a run of late, earning will blow out FWD estimates in 2Q and 3Q. There is definitely more upside IMHO.
This is a free report one analyst who was on CNBC authored:
https://www.sankeyresearch.com/2022/05/18/the-value-in-scarcity-us-refining/

you may have to register to view it.

I'm still holding all my oils and recently added SHEL on valuation and LNG assets.

I'm considering jettisoning my independent producers FANG, EOG, MTDR, and possibly APA.

I would keep the integrateds (COP and SHEL)and WMB (midstream) and maybe add refining, which I would expect to do better after oil has peaked.

All my oils are LTCG at this point, or are in tax deferred.

Concern is there more downside on oil now than upside, though I think oils remain undervalued for this pricing environment.

 

[BeachOrCity]

One way to think of energy valuation is "how much of the S&P 500 is energy". Right now even with the run up it is at historically low levels. I think there is room for it to move higher. I have a chart, but not a link, and I don't think I can add an attachment.

 

[Montecfo]

One way to think of energy valuation is "how much of the S&P 500 is energy". Right now even with the run up it is at historically low levels. I think there is room for it to move higher. I have a chart, but not a link, and I don't think I can add an attachment.

Yes. I see that. I'm just heavy on the independents, which was by design. So the mid-term trade worked out, but it is a *trade*. Of course my has stocks were also. They worked out but I left a lot on the table.

I want o&g exposure, but less exposure to the price of oil.

 

[wingfooted]

Holding OXY, COP, FANG, XOM. It’s been a wild run. Took some big losses in 2018 and 2019 and nearly went broke in 2020. Now fully recovered plus a bundle with tax issues.

 

[Montecfo]

My latest thinking is to stay the course into August. But looking for opportunities to lighten and switch to integrated producers and refiners.