Danmar
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
It's not just real returns that effect the success of a withdrawal level, but variability of returns also. I haven't seen any forecast of future variability?
1st of all all you hippies from the 60's and 70's must be smoking again. A 3.5% wd rate has never failed a 30 year retirement and how many of you plan on living past 90. I'm pretty sure all I'm going need is a loud TV and a computer with large fonts after 80.
FIRECALC does include several periods of horrible returns as well as deflation. The period 1895-1920 had several terrible years, and most of my worst runs start during that period - 1899, 1906, 1916, etc. so I don't think you can make such a blanket statement about the FIRECALC history. It is very long.Yes that was my point. The Firecalc history is during a period of very high returns which implies that 4% was a reasonable expectation in those days.
Agreed. The lower the better.
With technology, you can count on good vision and good hearing until you die. But good luck with 3.5%!
Yes that was my point. The Firecalc history is during a period of very high returns which implies that 4% was a reasonable expectation in those days.
Agreed. The lower the better.
With technology, you can count on good vision and good hearing until you die. But good luck with 3.5%!
Me!! Even though my best guess is that I might expire at around 82 or so, nobody wants to be (or plans to be) old, alone, and broke. But it happens. Therefore my financial plan goes to 95 right now. If I live to 85, I'm going to revise my plan to age 105, probably partially by getting an SPIA.how many of you plan on living past 90.
I'm only 68, and I already need a lot more than that (although I really don't use my TV much). I would imagine that by 80 I'll be spending even more than I do now. An 80-year-old might need a lot of things that we don't need now. Have you priced a motorized mobility scooter lately? How about having ramps installed, or buying another house without steps? Dental implants? Long hospitalizations? Live in elder care helper? I could go on.I'm pretty sure all I'm going need is a loud TV and a computer with large fonts after 80.
Me!! Even though my best guess is that I might expire at around 82 or so, nobody wants to be (or plans to be) old, alone, and broke. But it happens. Therefore my financial plan goes to 95 right now. If I live to 85, I'm going to revise my plan to age 105, probably partially by getting an SPIA.
I'm only 68, and I already need a lot more than that (although I really don't use my TV much). I would imagine that by 80 I'll be spending even more than I do now. An 80-year-old might need a lot of things that we don't need now. Have you priced a motorized mobility scooter lately? How about having ramps installed, or buying another house without steps? Dental implants? Long hospitalizations? Live in elder care helper? I could go on.
I planned to 95 also, though my Dad is turning 97 in a couple of months. My Mom died just before she would have turned 90, so longevity is common in my family.
I don't agree with their premise about low future returns...
Carpe diem my friend! Same with Bro. The hospital mistook him for my 94 yo Dad in his final trip. (He was 69)Never tally unhatched chickens. Below is a pic of my late wife, taken less than 15 years before she died. She was 6 1/2 years younger than me, and the paramedic who brought her home to die thought she was my mother, (and I was in my 60th year at the time).
I'll take what life I can get, but I don't count on it.
Carpe diem my friend! Same with Bro. The hospital mistook him for my 94 yo Dad in his final trip. (He was 69)