Poll: FOMC Interest rate speculation for July 25th & 26th.

[ShokWaveRider]

OK. I know, yet another prognosticator poll. They are kinda fun though aren't they. I know the pundits are speculating +25BP, but what do you think will go down next week.

 

[Gumby]

Jerome Powell will deliver a stirring speech to his assembled troops:

"Sons of Gondor! Of Rohan! My brothers. I see in your eyes the same fear that would take the heart of me.

A day may come when the courage of Men fails, when we forsake our friends and break all bonds of fellowship, but it is not this day. An hour of wolves and shattered shields when the Age of Men comes crashing down, but it is not this day!

This day we fight! By all that you hold dear on this good earth, I bid you stand, Men of the West!"



And they will stand.

 

[38Chevy454]

Inflation still running stubbornly high, and still demand for workers keeping unemployment lower, so a small 25 BP increase seems probable to me. Not until inflation comes down more, and unemployment starts to increase will FED back off. For now they are still trying to put the brakes on with increasing interest rates.

 

[madatrub]

Keep raising til they break something (else).

 

[audreyh1]

At this point it’s really hard to tell. Market expected +25 as Fed had been talking hawkish and employment numbers also came in strong. However last week the inflation numbers were weaker than expected and treasury rates have backed off a bit. Also the equity market has rallied on the softer inflation numbers so they may be expecting the Fed to back off.

 

[W2R]

Absolutely no idea! I'll just have to wait and see.

 

[Montecfo]

Inflation still running stubbornly high, and still demand for workers keeping unemployment lower, so a small 25 BP increase seems probable to me. Not until inflation comes down more, and unemployment starts to increase will FED back off. For now they are still trying to put the brakes on with increasing interest rates.

While dropping quickly. That is unusual.

 

[Montecfo]

I think Powell raises 25 BP and will rail about inflation while seeming to forget he hiked rates 500 basis points in less than 18 months.

And forgetting Econ 101 that it takes 12-24 months for these rate hikes to trickle through the economy.

 

[RetiredAt49]

Mr Powell will raise 25 BP because “while we see some cooling and are mostly pleased with the reduction of inflation, our job is not done. We are a data driven organization and thus subsequent actions are TBD”. Blah, blah, blah

 

[ut2sua]

Powell (in front of camera): "We were able to bring down inflation in the last xx months as expected. It is in our view that a further increase of 25 BP will be more beneficial going forward"
Powell (privately with friends): "What the h*ll is going on with housing prices? What is wrong with Corp America, they keep hiring and expanding. Don't they know interest rate is 5%+ now? I am not sure which way to go. Let's raise rate a bit more and see what happens"
Me: I have been wrong more than right most of the time before, but this time I am 100% sure the FED will raise rate by 25 BP

 

[Sunset]

I voted no increase.
Current inflation is low for past few months.

 

[BGold]

Jerome Powell will deliver a stirring speech to his assembled troops:

"Sons of Gondor! Of Rohan! My brothers. I see in your eyes the same fear that would take the heart of me.

A day may come when the courage of Men fails, when we forsake our friends and break all bonds of fellowship, but it is not this day. An hour of wolves and shattered shields when the Age of Men comes crashing down, but it is not this day!

This day we fight! By all that you hold dear on this good earth, I bid you stand, Men of the West!"



And they will stand.

I loved this…thanks Gumby!

 

[ShokWaveRider]

Well, today is the day, any last minute predictions?

 

[foxfirev5]

I know nothing and I'm sticking to it.

 

[audreyh1]

Fed hiked 0.25%.

 

[madatrub]

Fed certainly pivoting off the "2 more hikes this year" to "Lets wait and see". Market acting like they are done.

 

[Bruno]

Fed hiked 0.25%.

Thanks Audreyh1, Do you think we will see that increase on next week new issue 26week bills?

 

[audreyh1]

Probably not.

 

[Montecfo]

No it is baked in.