Poll:Where is the US economy headed in the next 10-15 years?

How will the US economy likely do in the next 10 to 15 or 20 years?

  • Better than the average of the 20th century

    Votes: 14 9.5%
  • About the same as the average of the 20th Century

    Votes: 53 36.1%
  • Worse than the average of the 20th, but still OK

    Votes: 65 44.2%
  • Much worse than the average of the 20th Century

    Votes: 11 7.5%
  • I'm moving to mars as soon as transportation is available

    Votes: 4 2.7%

  • Total voters
    147
  • Poll closed .
Everyone knows that according to the

"The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy"

the ultimate answer is 42. As for the math, it was rumored to be 6 x 7.
 
Everyone knows that according to the

"The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy"


the ultimate answer is 42. As for the math, it was rumored to be 6 x 7.

more math (from wiki):

Forty-two is a pronic number and an abundant number; its prime factorization 2 · 3 · 7 makes it the second sphenic number and also the second of the form { 2 · 3 · r }. As with all sphenic numbers of this form, the aliquot sum is abundant by 12. 42 is also the second sphenic number to be bracketed by twin primes; 30 is also a pronic number and also rests between two primes. 42 has a 14 member aliquot sequence 42, 54, 66, 78, 90, 144, 259, 45, 33, 15, 9, 4, 3, 1, 0 and is itself part of the aliquot sequence commencing with the first sphenic number 30. Further, 42 is the 10th member of the 3-aliquot tree.

It is the third primary pseudoperfect number.

It is a Catalan number. Consequently; 42 is the number of noncrossing partitions of a set of five elements, the number of triangulations of a heptagon, the number of rooted ordered binary trees with six leaves, the number of ways in which five pairs of nested parentheses can be arranged, etc.

It is the number of partitions of 10 - the number of ways of expressing 10 as a sum of positive integers (note a different sense of partition from that above).


The 3 × 3 × 3 magic cube with rows summing to 42.Given 27 same-size cubes whose nominal values progress from 1 to 27, a 3×3×3 magic cube can be constructed such that every row, column, and corridor, and every diagonal passing through the center, is composed of 3 cubes whose sum of values is 42.

It is the third pentadecagonal number. It is a meandric number and an open meandric number.

It is conjectured to be the scaling factor in the leading order term of the "sixth moment of the Riemann zeta function". In particular, Conrey & Ghosh have conjectured that
{1 \over T}\int_0^T \left| \zeta\left({1 \over 2} + it\right) \right|^6\,dt \sim {42 \over 9!}\prod_p \left\{1-{1\over p}\right\}^4 \left( 1 + {4 \over p} + {1 \over p^2} \right) \log^9 T,
.
where the infinite product is over all prime numbers, p.[1][2]

42 is a Størmer number.

In base 10, this number is a Harshad number and a self number, while it is a repdigit in base 4 (as 222).

42 is the only known value that is the number of sets of four distinct positive integers a,b,c,d, each less than the value itself, such that ab-cd, ac-bd, and ad-bc are each multiples of the value. Whether there are other values remains an open question.[3]

42 is a (2,6)-perfect number (super-multiperfect), as \sigma^2(n)=\sigma(\sigma(n))=6n\,[4]

42 is a perfect score on the USA Math Olympiad (USAMO)[5] and International Mathematical Olympiad (IMO).[6]

42 is the maximum of core points awarded in International Baccalaureate Diploma Programe.

42 is the resulting number of the original Smith number (4937775): Both the sum of its digits (4+9+3+7+7+7+5) as the sum of the digits in its prime factorization (3+5+5+(6+5+8+3+7)) result in 42.

-ERD50
 
Yup, Japan is a comfort to me as well. They are so much further down the deficit spending path than we are that I find it too hard to be worried.

If they can be okay at 200% GDP, we are probably going to survive 100% GDP.

:)

We have talked about population aging in the past. The demographics of the US is way better than that of Japan and many European countries. So, we will not be the 1st to go down the tube. That's my silver-lining thought.
 
Yup, and talking about how wrong the official inflation numbers are because magazine prices are up alot.

I bet buggy whips got real expensive at the end too, but I doubt that it meant that there was hyper-inflation. :)

Is Schiff still touting gold?
 
What Marc Faber, Peter Schiff, Donald Trump, and Robert Wiedemer said:

Economist Caution: Prepare For 'Massive Wealth Destruction'



The article is a promotion of the Wiedemer book so...


Wow. That's a quadruple play. Faber, Schiff, Wiedemer, and The Donald all proclaiming Certain Doom. In an article on NewsMax, the Intertube's favorite place to learn what you should be afraid of. OK. Quintuple play.

I wonder what Faber's daily routine looks like. Wake up, have coffee, brush teeth, announce economic doom, check the mail...
 
I'm very surprised at the poll results thus far: 90+% think we will do OK or better. Where are all the gloom & doomers?

I must confess, I am a bit surprised as well. I wonder what the results would have been at the beginning of 2009, or gulp, what they might be one year hence.
 
I am optimistic, based on what I have read and heard about cheap energy (natural gas) making it practical for manufacturing to move back towards the US. Not sure what to make of what looks like trends towards deflation despite a lot of money creation, but I am hoping that's a good thing as well.
 
Optimism and American Exceptionalism

I am optimistic, based on what I have read and heard about cheap energy (natural gas) making it practical for manufacturing to move back towards the US. Not sure what to make of what looks like trends towards deflation despite a lot of money creation, but I am hoping that's a good thing as well.

I am also optimistic, and what you mention is but one of the reasons. There is a lot of pro and con about the idea of "American Exceptionalism." But IMO to a great degree a lot of it is true.

Everything is relative, and that goes for companies, countries, and abilities. And as far as demographics, natural resources, immigration, diversity, freedom, political stability, and other factors from having the top universities, to having the best system of venture capital funding, the US still leads. I see all of the left/right struggles in DC as a good thing rather than bad, keeps our country struggling somewhere in the middle, not too far right or too far left like occurs elsewhere in the world.

Kind of like the old saying, attributed to various people, goes something like:
"A non democratic government is like a clipper ship, can move fast, but when it hits a rock it sinks. Democracy on the other hand, is more like a raft. It never sinks but then your feet are always wet."

A lot of people worry about China. Having worked in China, I think this is much more like our fear of the Soviet Union in the 60's. Remember hearing how many more engineers Russia was turning out than the US? We hear the same thing about the Chinese now. There are some bright people there, but they are still shackled by the Mao legacy and corruption, and it will be a long time growing out of these. Many of these Chinese engineers seem to be more like technicians or less.

To me there seems to be no lack of novelty in American society, where it will lead who knows. Social media, 3D printing, genetics, civil rights, mfg revival, a free thinking youth, on and on.

For certain the American share of the world pie will continue to shrink, couldn't be any other way, it has been declining since the end of WWII. I remember reading when I was a kid we had something like 80-90% of the worlds phones, cars, refrigerators, etc. But the pie will get bigger and I would not be surprised if much of the innovation that grows it comes from America. A smaller relative part of the pie is not the same as an American decline.

A lot of countries and individuals have bet against the US in the past and have been proven wrong. I think those that do now will be proven wrong again.

All this translates IMO into the expectation of reasonably good future returns.
Just my opinion, and anything can happen, time will tell.
 
Looking back, it's easy to see the breakthroughs as one-time things. Looking forward, it's hard or impossible to see the specific breakthroughs. So it seems to me that unless one concentrates on it, one imagines the future without these significant, but unpredictable 'wins'. On the other side of the equation, people remember the bad stuff and overweight those, even though it might be very unlikely. Just to explore that side of human nature, they've done studies of peoples' perspective on ways they'll die. The more grusome (shark attack) is many times overweighted than the mundane, but much more likely. So we take the worst historical set of years on record for our analysis. Is that a pretty safe approach? Yes, but what if the next big thing shows-up and it's put to work for society? Super capacitors? That probably won't be it, but I'm confident that we have not seen the last 'big thing'! Of course the last big thing could be that 3 mile wide asteroid, hehe!
 

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