Lsbcal
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Here is an interview with Gus Sauter that I think is worth looking at:Bond investors, beware - Dec. 3, 2012
Here is the quote that catches my eye:
Here is the quote that catches my eye:
and regarding equities:What about bonds?
The best predictor of bond returns is the yield to maturity of the 10-year bond. The 10-year Treasury is at less than 2%, so returns would probably be 2%, maybe 3%. Historically bonds have returned about 6%. It's difficult to see how we could get that.
Of course, I'm looking for confirmation bias.Seems like there's a lot of economic danger ahead.
It turns out equity returns are not related to economic growth. The best predictor of future returns over the long term -- over, let's say, a five-or 10-year horizon -- tends to be current valuations. The market is priced at about 13 times [expected] earnings, and that is a little bit cheaper than normal.
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