S&P 500 Prediction 2023?

[F.I.R.E User]

6000 by end of year.

 

[audreyh1]

I’m happily wrong about post #94 but right about #96, not that it was very debatable.

Post #96 was excellent!

 

[finnski1]

For the 2nd quarter, the S&P 500 advanced to the Beautiful Day division at 4450.38.


finnski1 (4444) currently has the closest prediction.



It's a beautiful day, we hope it doesn't slip away...

Hey. I forgot all about this poll. What did I win?
I mean after all you win in Superbowl picks for the half time score.

 

[Markola]

Post #96 was excellent!

[emoji5] We’ve all had lots of practice, unfortunately.

 

[kcowan]

My guess was 4560 so I need a pause/downturn to make it to December! Prefer a minor correction. but a deep dive will eliminate my interest in any contest.

 

[sengsational]

Up 17% and we're half way through.



I hereby predict, based on 2 * 17 that Gumby will win.

 

[W2R]

I have no idea what the S&P 500 will be, oh well! My guess is that it will go down, and up, and down, and up... like always. The stock market roller coaster.

Luckily I tend to live happily on mostly just my SS, mini-pension and RMDs, so the S&P 500 really doesn't make a huge difference to me personally. It's great entertainment, I must admit. And really, these days life is all about getting the maximum fun out of the years I have left.

 

[Gremlin]

Up 17% and we're half way through.



I hereby predict, based on 2 * 17 that Gumby will win.

As good a metric as any I’ve seen so far!

 

[jollystomper]

Despite stumbling a bit rounding third base, the S&P 500 remained within the Beautiful Day division at 4288.05, so we have not yet let it get away.

Currently Foghorn Leghorn(4275) has the closest prediction to the index.

Homestretch time! Will the market move in mysterious ways to make us happy, or will we be stuck in a moment we can't get out of? Time will tell...

 

[ducky911]

With 5 weeks to go Beautiful Day group looks strong for the win!

To pass the time during commercials and halftime of the Seahawks-49ers game, I summarized all of the guesses in this thread. Rather than put out one huge table, I have segmented the guesses into Divisions.

Each division is named after a U2 single whose title I feel best describes the sentiment of the guesses in that division. If there is a mistake in your screen name or guess, let me know, this was typed while watching football. If you object to a division name, hey, this is just mindless fun - feel free to repost with your own segmentation/division names based on whatever you want.


Sunday Bloody Sunday Division (9 guesses)

Name|guess|percent change
ShokWaveRider|2000|-47.9%
bmurphy|2100|-45.3%
pb4uski|3000|-21.9%
FLSUnFIRE|3072|-20.0%
freedom2022|3200|-16.7%
DFW_M5|3305|-13.9%
11522914|3338|-13.1%
Hank|3369|-12.3%
Freedom56|3420|-10.9%

Numb Division (11 guesses)

Name|guess|percent change
mmurphy|3500|-8.8%
Beststash|3506|-8.7%
Mr. Tightwad|3516|-8.4%
Pointby2|3525|-8.2%
24601NoMore|3600|-6.2%
gooddog|3600|-6.2%
GenXguy|3620|-5.7%
Born2Fish|3650.22|-4.9%
almost there|3721|-3.1%
Rowej|3780|-1.5%
Rocky mtn high|3800|-1.0%

Desire Division (14 guesses)

Name|guess|percent change
38Chevy454|3975|3.5%
Lakedog|3993|4.0%
yhoomajor|4001.28|4.2%
N02L84ER|4005|4.3%
rrs26ja|4015|4.6%
GravitySucks|4032|5.0%
aaronc879|4033|5.0%
PatrickA5|4034|5.1%
Taco|4042|5.3%
NW_Bound|4100|6.8%
dmpi|4110|7.0%
Reese|4122|7.4%
Al18|4133|7.6%
Markola|4143|7.9%

Beautiful Day Division (22 guesses)

Name|guess|percent change
jollystomper|4223|10.0%
SecondCor521|4223.45|10.0%
audreyh1|4250|10.7%
Dreamer|4269|11.2%
MichealKnight|4270|11.2%
Foghorn Leghorn|4275|11.3%
Toast|4315|12.4%
Sjhawkins|4321|12.5%
latexman|4327.55|12.7%
Go-NoGo|4376|14.0%
tulak|4400|14.6%
SloHan|4415|15.0%
ducky911|4419|15.1%
Dash man|4430|15.4%
finnski1|4444|15.7%
Car-Guy|4500|17.2%
mebden|4500|17.2%
Out-to-Lunch|4512|17.5%
teejayevans|4545|18.4%
Closet_Gamer|4550|18.5%
Rickt|4550|18.5%
braumeister|4560|18.8%

Even Better Than The Real Thing Division (6 guesses)

Name|guess|percent change
kgtest|4750|23.7%
Jerry1|4796|24.9%
Ronbusa3|4799|25.0%
Gumby|5123|33.4%
retire2020|5325|38.7%
sengsational|6001|56.3%

 

[jollystomper]

With 5 weeks to go Beautiful Day group looks strong for the win!

Yes indeed - almost a 5% rise is needed to make it to Even Better Than the Real Thing, and more than a 7% drop is needed to place it into Desire territory .

 

[Jerry1]

Yes indeed - almost a 5% rise is needed to make it to Even Better Than the Real Thing, and more than a 7% drop is needed to place it into Desire territory .

Looking for that Santa rally.

 

[SecondCor521]

With 5 weeks to go Beautiful Day group looks strong for the win!

I'd like to submit a request to management to consider my second guess (+20%). I hedged my bets just like the folks on CNBC.

 

[Gumby]

Looking for that Santa rally.

I say 12% between now and 12/31/23 is not too much to ask.

 

[latexman]

Personally, I’m ? for sengsational’s prediction!

 

[Chuckanut]

If we can get back to the previous S&P high, continue with approximately 5% CDs, and keep inflation at 3% max, I will declare victory and go home.

 

[teejayevans]

Off by less than 15, I need to go on CNBC.

 

[erkevin]

It will go up, down , or remain the same.

 

[jollystomper]

Home Stretch Time!

With a month to go, the S&P 500, at 4,567.80, finds itself just above the Beautiful Day division, and below the Even Better Than the Real Thing division.

braumeister's 4,560 prediction is currently the closest, just 7.8 points (0.17%) below the November close.

From a growth standpoint, if the S&P closes higher at the end of December, braumeister will remain the closest if the gain is less than 1.9%. With a gain above 1.9%, kgtest, Jerry1, and Ronbusa3 are the likely prediction contenders.

Of course, if the index goes goes down, there are more prediction contenders, as six others (Car-Guy, mebden, Out-to-Lunch, teejayevans, Closet_Gamer, Rickt) are within a 2% drop from the current level... but (assuming we all have not gone 100% Treasuries, Bonds, Money Markets, and CDs at this point in the year) we would not want that, would we?

 

[Out-to-Lunch]

Of course, if the index goes goes down, there are more prediction contenders, as six others (Car-Guy, mebden, Out-to-Lunch, teejayevans, Closet_Gamer, Rickt) are within a 2% drop from the current level... but (assuming we all have not gone 100% Treasuries, Bonds, Money Markets, and CDs at this point in the year) we would not want that, would we?

No, we don't. I will happily forgo my chance at fame, and instead defer to those who guessed above me!

 

[SecondCor521]

Still no love.

My standard guess is up 10% in line with historical averages:

3839.5 * 1.1 = 4223.45

With the "death of equities" attitude many seem to have at the moment, I wouldn't be surprised by 20%:

3839.5 * 1.2 = 4607.40

I'd like to submit a request to management to consider my second guess (+20%). I hedged my bets just like the folks on CNBC.

With a month to go, the S&P 500, at 4,567.80, finds itself just above the Beautiful Day division, and below the Even Better Than the Real Thing division.

My second guess is about 0.87% above the November close.

 

[kgtest]

4750. They say the bear market recovers within a year or two. Hopefully this will be the year and I am correct. It could go the complete other direction as well though, with mass layoffs which already seem to be happening, tightening of credit, foreclosures and bankruptcies.

No prize for getting it right so I am going high!

FWIW I tried to ask ChatGPT OpenAI and got this response:

AI: "I'm sorry, but I am not able to provide you with predictions about the future movements of the stock market. There are many factors that can affect the performance of the stock market, and it is difficult to accurately predict its movements. It is always important to do your own research and invest wisely."

Well, I am thinking with the fed turning into a more dovish stance, and interest rates dropping, that if this stays the coursre throough December I have a good chance of being "close" with my original 4750 guess. Another ~4% gains on the S&P for this guess to be worthwhile.

 

[kgtest]

With a month to go, the S&P 500, at 4,567.80, finds itself just above the Beautiful Day division, and below the Even Better Than the Real Thing division.

braumeister's 4,560 prediction is currently the closest, just 7.8 points (0.17%) below the November close.

From a growth standpoint, if the S&P closes higher at the end of December, braumeister will remain the closest if the gain is less than 1.9%. With a gain above 1.9%, kgtest, Jerry1, and Ronbusa3 are the likely prediction contenders.

Of course, if the index goes goes down, there are more prediction contenders, as six others (Car-Guy, mebden, Out-to-Lunch, teejayevans, Closet_Gamer, Rickt) are within a 2% drop from the current level... but (assuming we all have not gone 100% Treasuries, Bonds, Money Markets, and CDs at this point in the year) we would not want that, would we?

The confidence I brought to my prediction is noteworthy. I set it early and stuck with it. I know that within 18months of a bear market we on average are back to market highs. I knew we wouldn't QUITE be back to high's with the shorter than 18 month average "runway". So with the shortened duration of time "runway" I came to my 4750 conclusion somehow. I essentially used some law of averages which seemed practical for a guessing game like this.

 

[DrRoy]

Personally, I’m ? for sengsational’s prediction!

I wouldn't hope for that because it would just go the way of the tulip bulb.

 

[latexman]

I wouldn't hope for that because it would just go the way of the tulip bulb.

Hoping for the best, prepared for the worst, and unsurprised by anything in between.

― Maya Angelou, I Know Why the Caged Bird Sings