martyp
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
It sounds like you are too young to retire, not really FI, and don't know what you want to do. Find a job you like and LBYM.
So close and yet so lost...:(
- Thread starter Snoopy80
- Start date
Back in 98'-99' time frame I was in my mid 30's and had about $600k in investable assets. I had the idea that if the market continued to post 15%-20% returns that I could retire and draw about $100k/yr without any worries. It was a nice fleeting thought but not based on long term reality.
Good news is, I stayed in the work force. Now I have close to 6 times the assets and now believe I can let go pretty soon (will be 50 at the end of the year). A good plan in my opinion has to be based on close to worst case scenarios. Firecalc does a nice job of this and so does Fidelity RIP.
Good news is, I stayed in the work force. Now I have close to 6 times the assets and now believe I can let go pretty soon (will be 50 at the end of the year). A good plan in my opinion has to be based on close to worst case scenarios. Firecalc does a nice job of this and so does Fidelity RIP.
Snoopy80,
You should really think about taking a leave from work.
Talk to HR and find out what your options are.
Taking 6-8 weeks off will recharge your batteries and help you think better.
Your job will still be there when you get back.
You should really think about taking a leave from work.
Talk to HR and find out what your options are.
Taking 6-8 weeks off will recharge your batteries and help you think better.
Your job will still be there when you get back.
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Thank you all for your advice. 
I've talked to my manager and will be taking the month of July off and will re-evaluate my situation. Perhaps all I need is some time off to recharge and comeback. But, I am secretly hoping I don't. Either way...thank you all for your responses!!
I've talked to my manager and will be taking the month of July off and will re-evaluate my situation. Perhaps all I need is some time off to recharge and comeback. But, I am secretly hoping I don't. Either way...thank you all for your responses!!
Thank you all for your advice.
I've talked to my manager and will be taking the month of July off and will re-evaluate my situation. Perhaps all I need is some time off to recharge and comeback. But, I am secretly hoping I don't. Either way...thank you all for your responses!!
This is great! Take time off, have some time with your dad while you can. I lost my dad on 1/1/13 from a heart attack, so it really hits home. I was lucky to have some really good memories with him in December, but my brother didn't, he was planning to hang out with him "soon".
Spend some time during your month thinking about what you want to do with the rest of your life. I think it would be really good for you to find something you're interested in even if it pays less. You've got a good amount saved up that you can probably take a pay cut pretty easily, and just let your nest egg grow.
Accumulating Wealth
Dryer sheet wannabe
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Nobody on this planet has a system that reliably returns 10%-15% a year. Do not quit your job based on this faulty assumption. Your 15% gain could quickly turn into a 15% loss and then where would you be?
A ridiculous statement since you are not familiar with everyone's system on this planet.
Regardless of that snafu...if the spirit of your statement is that there are no guarantees in the market, you are right and I spend most of my time focusing on risk management to get me through the rough times and it has served me well.
Rustward
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
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Snoopy, I'm not going to ask you to reveal your secrets, but would you mind telling us in exactly which years you got 10-15% returns?
I'll step out a little further and ask what return you got each of the (few) years you have been trading.
To be totally candid, your claim sounds incredible -- over a long term.
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REWahoo
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give
We've had a lot of warm-up, now where's the pitch?
Texas Proud
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
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You do not have to know everybody's system on the planet... there are really only a few 'systems' and all have proven to be wrong...
Probably one of the best 'systems' is Warren Buffet with Berkshire... I did a quick look at the 40 years of returns for them between 1967 and 2007...
Guess what... there are 7 years with negative results... (and the list did not have the last few years when I bet there was another one or two)...
There were also 7 more years of positive return, but less than 10%...
So, if one of the best investors in the world has earned over 10% a year in 26 of 40 years.... I doubt your 'system' can do it year in and year out...
And to be clear... a system is a process that can be repeated by others.... not some dumb luck which cannot....
PS... Berkshire avg annual return was over 24%.... so in total he did very well... and still had losses...
Hey, No man..it's no secret. I just sell options on futures. The reason is that futures use SPAN margin and for the same % return you use less margin than say selling options on stocks.
I don't want to give out any figures but, since 2007 the range has been between 5% and 35%, with the average & median falling between 10-15%.
And I sell options naked primarily on ES and CL futures.
I have tried to make money by buying options and have failed, but if someone tells that they have been able to do that for several years....I would not respond by saying 'no, it cannot be done'. A more accurate statement would be 'I cannot make money buying options.'
So...when you have no experience selling options or being profitable by selling options...your opinion on systems that sell options are invalid.
Options, futures & margin. What could possibly go wrong?
If you insist on that trading then keep the job, pay off the car, and build a portfolio that will sustain you for the rest of your life with a low withdrawal rate and low risk, diversified allocations. Then you can quit and do what you want.
Texas Proud
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
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Take a look back at the post... nobody said you could not make money over the past few years on a system.... we just question that you can do it consistently over the long term.... IIRC, (not looking it up), you stated you had a system that 'reliably' returned 10% to 15% per year... now that you posted your system, you claim is BS... (which, BTW is what people have said)....
Not that you have not had gains the last few years, but it is not a reliable system...
But, good luck to you anyhow....
Err...okay. Thanks.
Rothman
Recycles dryer sheets
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Snoopy,I don't know how naked options on ES would be a system, how do you risk manage but keep upside? Is it a side bet with a portion of your funds or does this represent the entire portfolio management system. Congrats on success so far and good luck in future
Hi Rothman,
When selling naked I leave a lot of margin as 'dry powder', this enables me to adjust and fix positions to changing market conditions. As long as I am not over-leveraged (using excessive margin) I can control my risk. Of course, I will have to give up some of my profit if too many adjustments are made.
In the beginning I was averse to selling naked and used to sell vertical spreads as a way of managing risk. This is the only thing I do, i've tried other forms of trading/investing but no cigar. Hope this helps.
gauss
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
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Selling Naked Options on Futures?
Doesn't that have the potential for unlimited/unbounded losses , when the day finally comes around?
Sure you broker will try to liquidate all your positions before you run negative, but legally you are still on the hook if that doesn't happen.
Watch out for the future Flash Crashes.
Hopefully you only have a small fraction of your Net Worth in this particular brokerage account.
-gauss
(former dabbler in Futures & Options)
p.s. have you ever read about Martingale Casino betting systems?
I learned about those the hard way!
Doesn't that have the potential for unlimited/unbounded losses , when the day finally comes around?
Sure you broker will try to liquidate all your positions before you run negative, but legally you are still on the hook if that doesn't happen.
Watch out for the future Flash Crashes.
Hopefully you only have a small fraction of your Net Worth in this particular brokerage account.
-gauss
(former dabbler in Futures & Options)
p.s. have you ever read about Martingale Casino betting systems?
I learned about those the hard way!
Yes Gauss you are right, the flash crash is always a possibility. In this regard all systems are at risk of massive losses, selling naked doesn't inherently have greater risk (assuming you are not over-leveraged).
When selling naked I give up high returns for consistency, therefore I only use a fraction of my margin to get to my goal of around 10-15% annual return. This has allowed me to survive the downturn in 2008 and the flash crash of 2010. I did take a loss during the flash crash on my ES position, but the other positions were fine and once the market 'normalized' I was back in an ES position and ended the year positive. I suppose I gave back a chunk of the profit for the year, but my point is that if you are looking for a steady, dependable 'lower' rate of return than traders usually expect, then selling naked isn't as bad as it is usually portrayed.
Yes, I have heard of the martingale betting system, but I don't use it. The market can only be heading in one direction at a point in time, it is my job to get out of the way with the least damage possible. So, doubling down is not something I do.
Sincerely.
Snoopy80.
Rothman
Recycles dryer sheets
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Ok then in this strategy are you sitting watching the market throughout the trading day in case you need to adjust or can you set trade rules and live the passive investor life?
Yes Rothman, it's passive for the most part. I check the positions a couple of times a day. I execute the trades manually, gives me more of a feeling of control...I guess I am not comfortable with automated trading rules.
