(Spoiler Alert) Jeopardy! And Life Metaphor Question

[ziggy29]

Frankly, I've lost interest during his run. It's not because of his streak -- Ken Jennings had a much longer one -- but because most of the games are blowouts and are over well before the final, and because it's painful to watch people fish for Daily Doubles all over the place, and it's a mental exercise just remembering which category we're in each time.

Frankly I think the show should completely randomize the DD placement. Let them be on the top row. Let both of them in the second round be in the same category! Remove all incentives to "fish" for them early in the round, because there would be a 1/25 chance (or 2/25 chance in the second round) that the DD is in any box.

Holzhauer seems to me what Dr. Reid of "Criminal Minds" would be if he played Jeopardy. And I believe the professional gambler angle helps him as well because he has conditioned himself not to be overly emotional in his decisions, and not too emotional if he bets big and loses.

 

[GrayHare]

Brain scientists have concluded we all store in our heads a memory of nearly everything we encounter every day. Normal brain chemisty blocks retrieval of most of those memories, perhaps for the purpose of aiding concentration on a particular topic. Some people have less of the memory blocking chemicals, and therefore much better recall. Combine that with lots of reading, and you have someone who is great at trivia contests.

 

[mpeirce]

I admire the strategy he came up with. It'll be interesting to see if his style of play survives him or if the game goes back to "regular" style play (roughly top to bottom).

 

[ziggy29]

I admire the strategy he came up with. It'll be interesting to see if his style of play survives him or if the game goes back to "regular" style play (roughly top to bottom).

To me it's a lot like analytics in baseball. Few can argue that the data-driven decision making doesn't help you win -- it does -- so players of this game, like GMs in baseball, would be foolish not to do it if they had the tools. It helps you win. But also like baseball's analytics, this sort of data-driven decision making makes the game tougher to watch as a fan.

 

[RunningBum]

They moved the Double Jeopardy categories on him today. One in the second row, two in the fifth.

 

[COcheesehead]

He bet too low in final Jeopardy. And I think on purpose.

 

[RunningBum]

He bet too low in final Jeopardy. And I think on purpose.

Nah. Well, of course he bet that amount on purpose, but it wasn't "too low". That bet guaranteed him 2nd place even if he missed the question and 3rd place got it. His only chance to win was to get the question right and 1st place to miss, so it really didn't matter how much he bet, other than if he did win, he wouldn't get as much. You say it was "too low" as if there was a bet that would've won him the game, which there wasn't. He knew that.

She outplayed him, plus as I said they messed with him by moving the DJs. He could only get $1000 on the 1st round, and didn't even get a chance in the 2nd round, partly because they hid them better, and partly because she had some control of the board. He actually answered more questions right, but lower $ and didn't rack up big money on DJs. And he never built up a big enough lead to demoralize either of them.

People thought his downfall would be missing a question on a big DJ bet, but he didn't miss any.

 

[ziggy29]

Nah. Well, of course he bet that amount on purpose, but it wasn't "too low". That bet guaranteed him 2nd place even if he missed the question and 3rd place got it. His only chance to win was to get the question right and 1st place to miss, so it really didn't matter how much he bet, other than if he did win, he wouldn't get as much. You say it was "too low" as if there was a bet that would've won him the game, which there wasn't. He knew that.

This makes sense in terms of being a wager that guaranteed 2nd place if he got it right. But it just doesn't seem like his style to play for second place. That said, this also likely guarantees him a win if he got it right and she missed it, since she is probably wagering enough to ensure she has $1 more than he would if he went all in and got it. If she missed it with that wager, his small wager could still win, even if he missed it. That might have also been a consideration; if the final was so tough that no one got it, his tiny wager would probably turn out to be a winner.

 

[ERD50]

I wonder if the game will ever be the same now that all the secrets are out?

There are no 'secrets'. Anyone could approach the game as he did, the rules are the rules.

What he did (from the very little I've read/heard) is manage to achieve a very high proficiency and success rate with each clue. At that point, the gambler/mathematician in him realizes that it makes sense to make big bets. You could come up with some optimizations based on the number of questions you can fit in a game - the more questions the more aggressive you can be (to a point), because you have time to recover, and probably be more aggressive at the start.

As a so-so trivia player myself, I would want to take easy questions first, to kind of get my bearings, sometimes it helps to realize just how the category works. But he is way beyond that, so jumping straight into the top questions works for him. As someone else mentions, it probably throws off and intimidates a lesser player.

A lesser player would not succeed with his approach, they'd get too many negative points going in cold on the hardest clues.

Funny thing is, I heard all about this guy, but never remembered to tune in. Today there was talk about his chance to beat the record, so I set an alarm. Seemed to me the other payers realized they had to be just as aggressive to have any chance, and to take away the top questions from him. I had a sense it would be a good match when I realized there was not a single mistake in the first round.

And then, we had a power outage with clear skies (very rare), right before Final Jeopardy! It happened just as they went to commercial, so I didn't even realize it for about 15 seconds. Fortunately, it came on in time to see the final clue.


-ERD50

 

[RunningBum]

This makes sense in terms of being a wager that guaranteed 2nd place if he got it right. But it just doesn't seem like his style to play for second place.

I think it just shows that he truly approached this with a gambler's mathematical odds. He wasn't wildly going for broke with big bets, he was betting big to increase his chances of winning. In final Jeopardy on other days, he bet big to increase his winnings on what he saw as a better than 50/50 proposition. When a big bet did nothing to increase his chances, he didn't do it. I suppose you could argue that he should've bet big to increase his winnings in case she missed, but instead he decided to guarantee 2nd place at worst.

 

[RunningBum]

I found everything about this run fascinating, including the end. I started recording the show a couple weeks ago. I'll keep the recording tomorrow just to see how Emma does, and what Alex has to say about it, but then I'll cancel the recording.

 

[COcheesehead]

Second place is first loser.

 

[JoeWras]

Alex was choked up a bit when he talked about "seeing him again" (presumably in a champions round). This was filmed a while ago and was near the end of the season's taping.

I wish the best for Alex.

 

[hausfrau]

My husband and I watch Jeopardy every day. I am glad to see his run over. I got tired of the blowout games too. He is a good player though. I'm sure those one day records will stand for a long time.

 

[ERD50]

I think it just shows that he truly approached this with a gambler's mathematical odds. He wasn't wildly going for broke with big bets, he was betting big to increase his chances of winning. In final Jeopardy on other days, he bet big to increase his winnings on what he saw as a better than 50/50 proposition. When a big bet did nothing to increase his chances, he didn't do it. I suppose you could argue that he should've bet big to increase his winnings in case she missed, but instead he decided to guarantee 2nd place at worst.

No, he knows that if they both are right, she wins cause her double is higher than his double. He expects her to bet an amount that brings her $1 more than him if they are both right. He can't beat her with a higher bet, they both know that.

So the only thing he can do is plan for the case where he is right, and she is wrong (edit - and he did just that, assuming she be enough to double him + $1). It's not likely, but he has no other option. So he places his bet amount to be safe in case he is wrong and the #3 guy is right.

So any combo of right/wrong responses for the 3 of them puts him in 1st or 2nd place. The only way he can be 1st is if he is right and she is wrong. But if he bet more, and they were wrong and #3 was right, he'd lose and #3 would win.

Seems he played it 100% correct, given the circumstances.

One explanation here.

-ERD50

 

[RunningBum]

What I was saying is that he could've bet something like $15,000, which would've increased his winnings if he answered right, and her wrong. But, if they both missed and 3rd place got it right, he (3rd place) would've won. So you're right, it was absolutely the right bet because it gave him the best chance to win.

 

[ERD50]

The numbers, going into Final:

Him: $23,400
Her: $26,600
#3: $11,000

He plans on her betting $20,201, for $46,801 if she is right. That lets her beat him if he doubles, 2 x $23,400 = $46,800.

But if she is wrong, she is at $6,399, so he doesn't need to bet any more to beat her if she's wrong, his $1,399 bet takes him to $24,799, larger than her $6,399. He could have bet $0, and been in the same boat, but $1,399 is actually the optimal number for him right, her wrong. Any more, and he risks losing to a double bet from #3. At $1,399, a wrong response gets him down to $22,001 - so he is still $1 ahead of a double from #3.

What else could he do?

-ERD50

 

[audreyh1]

The numbers, going into Final:

Him: $23,400
Her: $26,600
#3: $11,000

He plans on her betting $20,201, for $46,801 if she is right. That lets her beat him if he doubles, 2 x $23,400 = $46,800.

But if she is wrong, she is at $6,399, so he doesn't need to bet any more to beat her if she's wrong, his $1,399 bet takes him to $24,799, larger than her $6,399. He could have bet $0, and been in the same boat, but $1,399 is actually the optimal number for him right, her wrong. Any more, and he risks losing to a double bet from #3. At $1,399, a wrong response gets him down to $22,001 - so he is still $1 ahead of a double from #3.

What else could he do?

-ERD50

How does he do that in his head so quickly!

 

[ERD50]

What I was saying is that he could've bet something like $15,000, which would've increased his winnings if he answered right, and her wrong. But, if they both missed and 3rd place got it right, he would've won. So you're right, it was absolutely the right bet because it gave him the best chance to win.

Cross posted with you, but yes - the strategy is to get to play another game (hopefully games), not to so much to maximize the winnings in a game. There's a better chance of making more the next game(s) than there is in the usual delta between contestants in the current game.

No way I could think that fast (I'm assuming they only get about as much time as we see?), and consider all the possibilities for the bets. I was trying to follow some blogger on the betting strategies, and I followed along until about bullet #4, then they just kept going for several more pages. It ain't easy!


-ERD50

 

[ERD50]

How does he do that in his head so quickly!

They have a plan for a lot of situations. It's really not that hard if you already have a handle on it.

He calculates his double, sees what she will bet to assure a win for both right, and he's done with that. That's all he can do. Then he checkes against #3, and sees he can bet up to $1,399, to protect against #3.

I couldn't do it that fast, but I would never make it to Final Jeopardy either!

-ERD50

 

[Jerry1]

yes - the strategy is to get to play another game (hopefully games), not to so much to maximize the winnings in a game.

-ERD50

This is what I had to learn playing video poker. The basic strategy gives you the best chance of winning something, which gives you more chances to pull that very special Royal Flush. The average player will hold cards trying to pull a great hand, for example thee cards to a royal flush instead of holding a low pair. The low pair has a better chance at winning, giving you another chance to play (and another chance to get a royal). The three cards to a royal has very high odds at winning, but it sucks a lot of people in. The house always wins, but they love it when you don’t play correctly. This guy had a strategy and played it well.

 

[ERD50]

I think he has speed reading skill. I studied his face while the questions were read and could see in his facial expression, usually 3 or 4 words in of Alex's reading, that he had the answer. He would close his eyes and relax so he could concentrate on timing his button push. A premature push of the button before Alex finishes uttering the last word in the response causes a delay for the button to work again.

I'd like to have a better grasp on that lock out delay. I've read about it, but never seen good details.

There was a show with a blind contestant. So they added an audio beep to signal when you could buzz in. Unfortunately, the visual cue is not shown to the audience. I think that's a mistake, I appreciated the audio cue as an observer. I'd also like to see an indication of when the contestants are buzzing in and when they are locked out. We really don't know what's happening (other than the look o their faces as they wildly hammer the button!), and I think it would be better if we saw all this.

Here's some info I just found - it says 1/4 second lock out:

https://www.jeopardy.com/jbuzz/behind-scenes/how-does-jeopardy-buzzer-work

 

[razztazz]

OK, he is very lucky that he is a math genius and has street smarts, and amazing memory. Got it!

No matter how cleverly and determinedly he trained those talents and put them to work.

Shakespeare was just lucky.

Sine qua non, baby. Sine qua non. Chain is only as strong (defined by, as it were) it's weakest link.

 

[Bestwifeever]

Watched this late last night with friends, who have seen every show—DH and I had seen only one of Holzhauer’s run. Wish we’d watched more!

 

[street]

He answered correctly 97% of the time. That was his strength and his strategy was big help but IMO there really wasn't any hidden secret to his success. His holding the clicker/button firmly and with both hands was something that played well for him. He got the jump on questions fast.