Stock Picking (Beat Boho) Contest - V2.0

[Boho]

My portfolio page works again!

 

[Boho]

Mar 29, 2017
SPY adjusted close: $224.59
$1,000,000 / $224.59 = 4452 shares + $125.32 cash

Oct 31, 2019
SPY adjusted close: $303.33
$303.33 * 4452 shares = $1,350,425.16
$1,350,425.16 + $125.32 cash = $1,350,550.48

Boho at close of Oct. 31: $1,329,442.02

$1,350,550.48 (SPY investor) - $1,329,442.02 (Boho) = $21,108.46 (1.56%)
1.56% difference after 31 months = .05% difference per month
.05% x 12 = .6% average difference per year

 

[pb4uski]

LHX: bought 3000 shares at $207.89 ($623,674.99), sold at $208.66 ($625,975.01), made $2300.02.

Good for you Bozo!

If you had invested $623,674.99 in VOO on 10/14 at $271.88 you could have sold it today for $638,975.51 (at $278.55) and made $15,300.52

 

[MuirWannabe]

mar 29, 2017

spy adjusted close: $224.59

$1,000,000 / $224.59 = 4452 shares + $125.32 cash



oct 31, 2019

spy adjusted close: $303.33

$303.33 * 4452 shares = $1,350,425.16

$1,350,425.16 + $125.32 cash = $1,350,550.48



boho at close of oct. 31: $1,329,442.02



$1,350,550.48 (spy investor) - $1,329,442.02 (boho) = $21,108.46 (1.56%)

1.56% difference after 31 months = .05% difference per month

.05% x 12 = .6% average difference per year

 

[Boho]

In case I wasn't clear, I'm behind $21,108.46 if my calculations were correct.

 

[ERD50]

....
.05% x 12 = .6% average difference per year

In case I wasn't clear, I'm behind $21,108.46 if my calculations were correct.

Translating for Boho - "difference" or "almost" means "behind".

Well, I'm staying consistent with the nunnun benchmark, which was VTI/VOO 50/50. Based on that, I get:


VTI
3/29/2017 adj close _ VTI ______ EOM
115.59 ______________ 154.18 ___ $1,333,852

VOO
3/29/2017 adj close _ VOO ______ EOM
205.92 ______________ 278.56 ___ $1,352,758

AVG VTI;VOO ____ $1,343,305

BOHO - nunnun CUML $ delta ___ -$13,863


That puts you $13,863 behind, if I did my calcs correctly. How many hours of work have you put in over the past 31 months, just to be behind? You could have done something constructive with your time.

-ERD50

 

[ERD50]

...

If you had invested $623,674.99 in VOO on 10/14 at $271.88 you could have sold it today for $638,975.51 (at $278.55) and made $15,300.52

So it seemed his 'strategy' was that he thought he saw something in a report that "the LHX market" didn't see, so he bought, figuring that once those people caught on, the price would rise, and ... PROFITS!

But he would have been better off napping. And he put ~ 60% of his portfolio at risk on this Rock-Paper-Scissors 'hunch"? I'd say that's why he is behind. And far more volatile than our napping benchmark.

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

this Rock-Paper-Scissors 'hunch"?

How many of my last 100 picks were losers? Zero? (maybe I haven't posted enough of my trading history). I essentially don't lose any more. Finding something that outperforms the index isn't always easy but I haven't been trying that lately. I've been identifying what out performs the buy price and buying it on margin while keeping the S&P unmargined. If I were competing against someone who has the S&P on margin, I wouldn't be so confident at the moment because I think the market is likely to go up short term. I just don't want to take the chance so I'm taking it slower and surer.

 

[ERD50]

How many of my last 100 picks were losers? Zero? (maybe I haven't posted enough of my trading history). I essentially don't lose any more. ... .

Did the contest rules change, and you didn't tell us? I thought the contest was measured by portfolio value, not the number of trades with gains (not that tricky in an up market).

And your portfolio value has been lagging the market for as long as I've been tracking the EOM portfolios (NOV 2017). It's a sea of red. And your volatility is about 1.7x higher as well.

You've been in the red by more than $100,000 in 15 of those 24 months. That's really bad. Now, if the regression to the mean comes into play, you just might pop up at the end of the game. Like I've said from the beginning, that's how a non-diversified portfolio will act. Volatility. That's all.

See you next month.

-ERD50

 

[pb4uski]

... I essentially don't lose any more. Finding something that outperforms the index isn't always easy...

But that's the point... if you don't beat the index then you have lost unless your objective is just to not lose money... in which case perhaps you sould just invest in CDs or an online savings account.

...

 

[Boho]

Current Rank	Previous day's rank	Account Value (USD)	Today's change in value	Overall%
1. comsecga	1	$3,217,412.41	($20,441.20)	221.74%
2. Spudd	2	$2,781,803.27	($15,375.09)	178.18%
3. kite_rider	3	$2,466,311.66	$88,740.00	146.63%
4. cfahey27	4	$1,413,586.67	$13,065.00	41.36%
5. BohoII	5	$1,329,442.02	($1,352.03)	32.94%
6. wmc1000	6	$1,281,612.62	$16,491.99	28.16%
7. lbymfreddie	7	$1,240,108.30	$3,429.84	24.01%
8. DieWurst	8	$1,210,352.83	($3,474.60)	21.04%
9. wrd58	10	$1,177,152.14	($368.00)	17.72%
10. nvestysly	9	$1,172,519.70	($5,399.76)	17.25%
11. easysurfer	11	$1,142,334.67	($1,428.92)	14.23%
12. covert1	12	$1,126,434.74	($7,720.00)	12.64%
13. KCScubaSteve	13	$1,074,969.67	$1,553.75	7.50%
14. RiskyBusinessC2	14	$1,021,978.22	$2,700.00	2.20%
15. ransil	15	$1,001,668.31	$611.80	0.17%
16. dixonge	16	$1,000,000.00	$0.00	0.00%
17. exnavynuke	17	$1,000,000.00	$0.00	0.00%
18. jmil07	18	$1,000,000.00	$0.00	0.00%
19. consvgmbl	19	$1,000,000.00	$0.00	0.00%
20. monitorLizzy	20	$1,000,000.00	$0.00	0.00%
21. secondcor521	21	$1,000,000.00	$0.00	0.00%
22. guestperson	22	$998,905.01	($760.00)	-0.11%
23. natetheb	23	$968,008.77	$4,867.34	-3.20%
24. sengsational	24	$915,449.95	($13,392.90)	-8.46%
25. lawrencewendall	25	$786,196.69	$11,388.33	-21.38%

 

[pb4uski]

Below is from M* for 3/29/17 to 10/31/19.

S&P 500 (VFIAX): $1,354,221... 12.41% annualized return
Total Stock Market (VTSMX): $1,335,594... 11.81% annualized return
Boho II: $1,329,442... 11.61% annualized return

Boho did better than I expected, but still seriously lagging S&P 500 benchmark.

 

[Boho]

My portfolio is once again not available, plus I'm having trouble placing an order to sell BORR which I bought 4000 shares of (for $6.65 per share). It's only letting me sell 133 shares, which is about 1/30th what I bought less than an hour ago.

Those 133 sold at $6.72/share. And now I can only sell 15 more shares which I won't even bother with. I think someone said the volume restriction is per day, not per trade, so if I bought near the maximum then I can't sell it all the same day. But I don't know if that's true or where it says that beside this thread.

This is what Investopedia says when you try selling more than allowed:

Invalid Trade: No Volume In Stock This order did not execute due to a violation of the game's volume rule. Every game has a setting that only allows an order to be executed when the size of the order is less than 10.00 % of the stock's real life trading volume. If this stock typically has high daily trade volume, try making this trade again at a later time in the day; as our data feed updates alongside the real world's trade volume.

Even that's not helpful to a beginner. What about my trade has to be less than 10% of the volume? Cost or shares? The volume on BORR is now 41,495 so 10% is 4149.5 so why is my limit 15 shares?

 

[Fermion]

Those trading rules are one reason I quit playing. Why can't you buy or sell more than 10% of the daily volume of a stock? I do that sometimes even in real life with much smaller money.


That and the fact that I find it more interesting to play with real money.

 

[Boho]

Total Stock Market (VTSMX): $1,335,594... 11.81% annualized return
Boho II: $1,329,442... 11.61% annualized return

That matters too. If we compare me with one thing it should be the S&P 500, but, as I said back in January:

I do want to compare against a few alternatives for index investors. I know some indexers think international stocks are unimportant but others don't.

S&P 500 (VFIAX): $1,354,221... 12.41% annualized return
Boho II: $1,329,442... 11.61% annualized return

That's a .8% difference, but I had calculated .6%. Your amount for S&P 500 is greater than what I figure it to be. Could someone check my work:

Mar 29, 2017
SPY adjusted close: $224.59
$1,000,000 / $224.59 = 4452 shares + $125.32 cash

Oct 31, 2019
SPY adjusted close: $303.33
$303.33 * 4452 shares = $1,350,425.16
$1,350,425.16 + $125.32 cash = $1,350,550.48

edit: I used the adjusted close for SPY on the first day of the contest, which was $224.59 but now I'm thinking that price was adjusted for dividends but someone buying on that day wouldn't be entitled, so the un-adjusted close would be the better price to use at the start of the contest. The un-adjusted close was higher ($235.54) so the indexer would get fewer shares to start and end up with a LOWER balance than I figured, not higher.

There needs to be a tutorial on this! People say "use the adjusted close" like that's a revelation, but they still have to say how to use it!

 

[pb4uski]

....Your amount for S&P 500 is greater than what I figure it to be. Could someone check my work:

Mar 29, 2017
SPY adjusted close: $224.59
$1,000,000 / $224.59 = 4452 shares + $125.32 cash

Oct 31, 2019
SPY adjusted close: $303.33
$303.33 * 4452 shares = $1,350,425.16
$1,350,425.16 + $125.32 cash = $1,350,550.48

edit: I used the adjusted close for SPY on the first day of the contest, which was $224.59 but now I'm thinking that price was adjusted for dividends but someone buying on that day wouldn't be entitled, so the un-adjusted close would be the better price to use at the start of the contest. The un-adjusted close was higher ($235.54) so the indexer would get fewer shares to start and end up with a LOWER balance than I figured, not higher.

There needs to be a tutorial on this! People say "use the adjusted close" like that's a revelation, but they still have to say how to use it!

You're overthinking it.... forget the approach that you are taking.

Just go to VFIAX Vanguard 500 Index Fund Admiral Shares Fund VFIAX chart and then put in the dates.... in this case 3/29/17 to 10/31/19.... the result will be the growth of $10,000 with dividends reinvested.... then just multiply result by 100 since the initial investment is $1 million rather than $10,000.... in this case $13,542.21 * 100 = $1,354,221.

In fact, this approach arguably slightly understates the return since VFIAX includes a 0.04% expense ratio... probably by ~$1,000 or so.... but close enough.

 

[Boho]

You're overthinking it.... forget the approach that you are taking.

Just go to VFIAX Vanguard 500 Index Fund Admiral Shares Fund VFIAX chart and then put in the dates.... in this case 3/29/17 to 10/31/19.... the result will be the growth of $10,000 with dividends reinvested.... then just multiply result by 100 since the initial investment is $1 million rather than $10,000.... in this case $13,542.21 * 100 = $1,354,221.

In fact, this approach arguably slightly understates the return since VFIAX includes a 0.04% expense ratio... probably by ~$1,000 or so.... but close enough.

It says "All data from Morningstar except U.S. intraday real-time exchange quotes, which are provided by BATS when available." I need a description of BATS that says their data is adjusted. It's either better or worse than the Yahoo adjusted data I've been using, or else I've been using Yahoo wrong. I still want to know how I'm supposed to use Yahoo. I'm trying to learn this stuff, I'm not just overthinking the contest. Maybe I'll start a new thread.

 

[Boho]

Oh I guess I need a description of Morningstar data since I'm not looking at intraday data. I didn't see one.

 

[ERD50]

... In fact, this approach arguably slightly understates the return since VFIAX includes a 0.04% expense ratio... probably by ~$1,000 or so.... but close enough.

But a fund/ETF's total return includes the effect of expenses, right? So no adjustment should be made.

Unless you are trying to state what "the market" would do. But for me, the reality is that the alternative to stock picking is buying a fund/ETF. The concept of "the market" is just a concept. The reality of a tracking fund/ETF is very, very close to reality though. As you say, a cost of about 0.1% over ~ 2.5 years.

A small price to pay for all that time you get back, not having to read press releases, earning reports, etc. It's like being paid to nap!

-ERD50

 

[ERD50]

It says "All data from Morningstar except U.S. intraday real-time exchange quotes, which are provided by BATS when available." I need a description of BATS that says their data is adjusted. It's either better or worse than the Yahoo adjusted data I've been using, or else I've been using Yahoo wrong. I still want to know how I'm supposed to use Yahoo. I'm trying to learn this stuff, I'm not just overthinking the contest. Maybe I'll start a new thread.

I gave examples of using yahoo adj prices. They match the morningstar numbers within some small rounding errors. You are barking up the wrong tree.

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

I gave examples of using yahoo adj prices. They match the morningstar numbers within some small rounding errors. You are barking up the wrong tree.

-ERD50

All I remember is your middot.

 

[pb4uski]

But a fund/ETF's total return includes the effect of expenses, right? So no adjustment should be made.

Unless you are trying to state what "the market" would do. But for me, the reality is that the alternative to stock picking is buying a fund/ETF. The concept of "the market" is just a concept. The reality of a tracking fund/ETF is very, very close to reality though. As you say, a cost of about 0.1% over ~ 2.5 years.

A small price to pay for all that time you get back, not having to read press releases, earning reports, etc. It's like being paid to nap!

-ERD50

I guess it depends... if the benchmark is investing in a low ER 500 index funds then you are correct, no adjustment is needed... I was presuming that the benchmark is the S&P 500 (assuming that you had a pile sufficient to just buy all the S&P 500 stocks in the index with no transaction costs).

Either way... difference is miniscule.

 

[Boho]

I compared Morningstar to Fidelity from 09/30/2016 to 09/30/2019 (because Fidelity doesn't let me choose 3/29/2017 to 10/31/2019). Fidelity says $14,566 and Morningstar says $14,681.50, a .79% difference. Maximum possible difference unknown, unless someone wants to enlighten me, but we can call it 1% (.033% annualized). That's our margin of error.

pb4uski found that I'm .2%/year behind VTSMX (total stock market). .2 - .033 = 0.167‬

 

[Boho]

I don't know what just happened but composing the above post got way too slow and editing it seems impossible because I can't move the cursor, but...

so, I'm .167% away from a total stock market investor, with a previous agreement that "0.1% difference is flat" making me essentially .067% behind.

Wait...the MoE is .33% annualized, so I'm within the MoE already.

 

[pb4uski]

NO! You are grossly misinterpreting my post... I found that you were 0.8% behind the benchmark.... ANNUALLY... not for the term of the contest so far. That is a huge difference.

The benchmark was 101.9% of your balance at 10/31/19.

In short, the S&P 500 is spanking you badly.