Sweden’s “Bold Experiment?”

[gerntz]

Most hospitals were not overwhelmed with the exception of NYC (so far). But we have too many deaths. I think if we had locked down earlier, especially in nursing homes, and if we had done adequate testing and tracing we would have far fewer deaths. The jury is of course still out on how many deaths we will end up with. I am concerned we are going to see many more deaths.

NYC barely used the temporary hospitals set up & always has sufficient ventilators, so not sure what you mean when you claim their hospitals were overwhelmed. Taxed I'll give you. There was a lot of headwind to locking down earlier.

 

[anethum]

NYC barely used the temporary hospitals set up & always has sufficient ventilators, so not sure what you mean when you claim their hospitals were overwhelmed. Taxed I'll give you. There was a lot of headwind to locking down earlier.

Not true. It was widely reported by multiple reputable news sources that NYC hospitals and staff were overwhelmed by Covid cases. Just because the temporary hospitals weren't filled up and they didn't run out of ventilators, doesn't mean that hospitals weren't overwhelmed. The situation in many NYC hospitals sounded horrific, with hallways overflowing with sick patients and staff completely exhausted. Here's one article dated 3/31/20. It's easy to find other similar articles.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/30/us/brooklyn-hospital-coronavirus-patients-deaths/index.html

 

[brewer12345]

Not true. It was widely reported by multiple reputable news sources that NYC hospitals and staff were overwhelmed by Covid cases. Just because the temporary hospitals weren't filled up and they didn't run out of ventilators, doesn't mean that hospitals weren't overwhelmed. The situation in many NYC hospitals sounded horrific, with hallways overflowing with sick patients and staff completely exhausted. Here's one article dated 3/31/20. It's easy to find other similar articles.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/30/us/brooklyn-hospital-coronavirus-patients-deaths/index.html

We have memories like a goldfish.

 

[statsman]

IMHO, any discussion of how this all turns out needs to include the health problems and deaths caused by the economic collapse we are currently experiencing. If Sweden can limit that damage they might, just maybe, come out ahead. But, that is a big IF for a relatively small country in a much larger world economy.

You may be correct, especially with large groups of doctors in this country starting to speak up about mental health issues and suicides because of the lockdowns. Plus the concerns of long-term health for those individuals putting off medical procedures because they were (or still are) deemed "non-essential", or the people are just too scared to get a specific medical condition attended to.

It's always easier to draw conclusions when looking at a situation in a vacuum.

 

[donheff]

So far Sweden looks pretty good to me. They are higher than nearby neighbors but lower than most large EU counties with much less disruption. It remains to be seen whether they are better able to save their bars, restaurants, and hotels than others that shutdown.

 

[2soon2tell]

Chuck,

I agree that the Covid19 death count should include the economic effects of the shutdown but how do you quantify those numbers?

 

[Chuckanut]

Chuck,

I agree that the Covid19 death count should include the economic effects of the shutdown but how do you quantify those numbers?

There are plenty of studies that link low-income and/or poverty to more negative health outcomes. But, quantifying them is an issue. I would love to hear interviews from those who have studied this issue.

 

[Chuckanut]

Chuck,

I agree that the Covid19 death count should include the economic effects of the shutdown but how do you quantify those numbers?

There have been academic studies of poor and low-income health problems vs the rest of the population. I would think they would allow estimates of how many people have their health hurt because they are poor or low-income.

Here's one:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1756763/

 

[TrvlBug]

Not true. It was widely reported by multiple reputable news sources that NYC hospitals and staff were overwhelmed by Covid cases. Just because the temporary hospitals weren't filled up and they didn't run out of ventilators, doesn't mean that hospitals weren't overwhelmed. The situation in many NYC hospitals sounded horrific, with hallways overflowing with sick patients and staff completely exhausted. Here's one article dated 3/31/20. It's easy to find other similar articles.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/30/us/brooklyn-hospital-coronavirus-patients-deaths/index.html

Yep, my SIL, an RN in NYC can attest to this. Also the refrigerated trucks parked outside of the hospitals to hold the dead. They were overwhelmed.

 

[audreyh1]

Yeah - I would say that if you need refrigerator trucks to warehouse the bodies, the system has been overwhelmed.

 

[harllee]

Yeah - I would say that if you need refrigerator trucks to warehouse the bodies, the system has been overwhelmed.

Boy I hope that does not happen where I live. Talk about a negative economic and mental health impact.

 

[YVRRocketSurgery]

There are plenty of studies that link low-income and/or poverty to more negative health outcomes. But, quantifying them is an issue. I would love to hear interviews from those who have studied this issue.

Makes me think of the quote by Brad Pitt's character in the Big Short, Ben Rickert: "Every one percent unemployment goes up, 40,000 people die, did you know that?" I wanted to validate the stat with something before the current issues. Found this BBC segment from 2016.

 

[CardsFan]

Makes me think of the quote by Brad Pitt's character in the Big Short, Ben Rickert: "Every one percent unemployment goes up, 40,000 people die, did you know that?" I wanted to validate the stat with something before the current issues. Found this BBC segment from 2016.

And the answer was??

 

[YVRRocketSurgery]

And the answer was??

I wanted people to listen and make their own decision but a summary is:
The screenwriter of the Big Short had a financial journalist fact check the script. There's no database where someone can pull up such a stat. There's difficulties around determining if someone died directly because they were unemployed or if they would have lived longer. The stat itself seems to have origins from a Congressional study during the recession in the 1970's which seems to indicate an increase in mortality due to unemployment and that the ratio is a good rule of thumb. Feels that they can correlate the number of strokes, heart attacks, suicides, etc from unemployment via statistical analysis. Conflicting professor says mortality rates seem to go down during recessions due to less economic activity from less pollution, etc..

--
TLDR: Conflicting opinions on mortality rate but that unemployment nonetheless has a very profound and damaging impact on the individuals that are unemployed whether it be death, or their marriage broke up, etc.

 

[CardsFan]

I wanted people to listen and make their own decision but a summary is:
The screenwriter of the Big Short had a financial journalist fact check the script. There's no database where someone can pull up such a stat. There's difficulties around determining if someone died directly because they were unemployed or if they would have lived longer. The stat itself seems to have origins from a Congressional study during the recession in the 1970's which seems to indicate an increase in mortality due to unemployment and that the ratio is a good rule of thumb. Feels that they can correlate the number of strokes, heart attacks, suicides, etc from unemployment via statistical analysis. Conflicting professor says mortality rates seem to go down during recessions due to less economic activity from less pollution, etc..

--
TLDR: Conflicting opinions on mortality rate but that unemployment nonetheless has a very profound and damaging impact on the individuals that are unemployed whether it be death, or their marriage broke up, etc.

Thanks for the summary. I will try to look at the video later. Nothing sounds definitive, as to be expected.

 

[Poopycat]

You may be correct, especially with large groups of doctors in this country starting to speak up about mental health issues and suicides because of the lockdowns. Plus the concerns of long-term health for those individuals putting off medical procedures because they were (or still are) deemed "non-essential", or the people are just too scared to get a specific medical condition attended to.

It's always easier to draw conclusions when looking at a situation in a vacuum.

Delaying procedures and exams is one of the things I’m worrying about personally. I was supposed to get a colonoscopy, my first ever, on April 6. A relative was coming for a visit and was going to take me (since you have to have a driver wait for you), but she couldn’t come due to her state being locked down. I arranged for a local friend to take me but she is high risk due to her age, and it really didn’t matter anyway since all elective procedures were canceled.

Elective procedures that don’t require an overnight stay are now permitted but frankly, I don’t want to go yet. And I don’t want to ask the same person because she is high risk. I’m still relatively new to this area so I don’t have a lot of other people to ask; most of the people I know are working during the week. I don’t want to delay the procedure but fear of catching the virus and the logistics of finding someone who has the free time and willingness to go with me is keeping me from getting it done. I have another exam I want to get done too, but I want to get the colonoscopy first.

 

[RobbieB]

How was your last poop test poopycat? Got any colon cancer in your family?

If yes then go with the torpedo, if not, probably can wait.

 

[Poopycat]

How was your last poop test poopycat? Got any colon cancer in your family?

If yes then go with the torpedo, if not, probably can wait.

Never had one before. I always thought the age when you start getting colonoscopies was 50, which I hit this month. But I recently found out that the recommended age is now 45. I would have had it done sooner had I known.

My dad was fine, my mom never took care of herself so I don’t think she ever had one done. But I have an aunt my mom’s side that died from colon cancer and at least one other aunt on that side who had polyps removed. I have a cousin on my dad’s side who had polyps removed too...not cancerous but could be a precursor. So I’m a little nervous and want to get it done.

 

[robnplunder]

So far Sweden looks pretty good to me. They are higher than nearby neighbors but lower than most large EU counties with much less disruption. It remains to be seen whether they are better able to save their bars, restaurants, and hotels than others that shutdown.

Actually, Sweden isn't looking good. Their death per million is pretty high (in 6th place among all the nations with population > 1 million) and it will only get worse from there. If I am 80 years old living in a Swedish senior center, I'd be hopping mad at their government for picking a strategy that sacrifices the old for the young (who probably paid far less tax than someone who retired from work).



There are many nations who are beating or have beaten the COVID 19 threat: Australia, Taiwan, Israel, Korea, Austria, Greece, China, New Zealand, Vietnam, ..., and many more. Sweden isn't anywhere near the list.

 

[Christine]

IMHO, any discussion of how this all turns out needs to include the health problems and deaths caused by the economic collapse we are currently experiencing. If Sweden can limit that damage they might, just maybe, come out ahead. But, that is a big IF for a relatively small country in a much larger world economy.

My 2¢. Take what you wish and leave the rest.

In the EU prognosis this spring Sweden is doing better than the EU average. But compared to their neighbours they are not.


EU estimate a 6.1% fall in GDP for Sweden
a 5.9% fall for Denmark
a 5.5% fall for Norway


so the rest of us Scandies are doing better both with C19 and GDP.


Source: https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/economy-finance/ip125_en.pdf

 

[sengsational]

Yeah - I would say that if you need refrigerator trucks to warehouse the bodies, the system has been overwhelmed.

If being in the hospital improved survivability, then yes. But if those that show up (those that are "really sick") get treatments that only keep a certain fraction of them going (which is certainly the case), then the demand on the "remains processing" system is going to overrun historical capacity. So the refrigerator trucks point more to the inability of hospitals to keep people alive, even with beds, staff and equipment in full supply.

 

[audreyh1]

If hospitals get overrun, can’t treat everyone, don’t have enough equipment, have to resort to triage, have patients lying in the hospital halls as happened in Italy and New York, you are going to have much higher deaths than normal and refrigerator trucks and other temporary morgue situations. So I don’t think you can claim that it points more to the inability of the fully equipped hospital to keep patients alive.

 

[aiken]

Actually, Sweden isn't looking good. Their death per million is pretty high (in 6th place among all the nations with population > 1 million) and it will only get worse from there. If I am 80 years old living in a Swedish senior center, I'd be hopping mad at their government for picking a strategy that sacrifices the old for the young (who probably paid far less tax than someone who retired from work).



There are many nations who are beating or have beaten the COVID 19 threat: Australia, Taiwan, Israel, Korea, Austria, Greece, China, New Zealand, Vietnam, ..., and many more. Sweden isn't anywhere near the list.

I wonder how many lives were saved by keeping hospitals open for other medical needs, and not crashing their economy.

 

[Midpack]

Actually, Sweden isn't looking good. Their death per million is pretty high (in 6th place among all the nations with population > 1 million) and it will only get worse from there. If I am 80 years old living in a Swedish senior center, I'd be hopping mad at their government for picking a strategy that sacrifices the old for the young (who probably paid far less tax than someone who retired from work).



There are many nations who are beating or have beaten the COVID 19 threat: Australia, Taiwan, Israel, Korea, Austria, Greece, China, New Zealand, Vietnam, ..., and many more. Sweden isn't anywhere near the list.

While it will undoubtedly get worse, we don't have any idea where along their curve they are. They may reach R0<1 long before some other countries, and come out with fewer deaths per million than many countries who appear to be in better shape at the moment. It could easily be a year before we know who fared better than who...

 

[cathy63]

I wonder how many lives were saved by keeping hospitals open for other medical needs, and not crashing their economy.

Staying open did not save Sweden's economy. As Christine points out above, they are economically worse off now than their neighbors who shut down.

It's possible that things would be in even worse shape if they had also shut down, but there's no way to know that.