cute fuzzy bunny
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Re: Self Correction
Sort of. In 2000 we still thought it might be "all different" and it wasnt clear what the impending risk might be. Sort of like riding a dirt bike full tilt on a big flat open space towards an invisible precipice. The perceived risk might have been lower before you went 3 miles down the face of the precipice. But the point is right on. 4% in 2000 is no more or less likely to work than 6% in 2004. Although I'd feel less good about the 6% than the 4% because I know there be precipices nearby...but I might feel better about 4% in 2004 than I did in 2000 with the same sized portfolios.
As far as two sequential slumps? Oh yes.
From July of 1929 to June of 1932, the Dow fell from 380 to 42. From then to August it ran up to 78. Then from August to February of 1933 it fell back to 53. A huge drop, rise and drop, percentage-wise. Substantial drops in 1937, 1938, and 1940 and 1942 after run ups. In fact there are a number of large percentage up and down cycles throughout.
I disagree that it's necessarily equally risky, so I can still argue it's not exactly the same thing, and I can argue that FIREcalc doesn't say 6% in 2004 is 100% safe. : (Although I think I've exhausted all ways of saying it.)
Sort of. In 2000 we still thought it might be "all different" and it wasnt clear what the impending risk might be. Sort of like riding a dirt bike full tilt on a big flat open space towards an invisible precipice. The perceived risk might have been lower before you went 3 miles down the face of the precipice. But the point is right on. 4% in 2000 is no more or less likely to work than 6% in 2004. Although I'd feel less good about the 6% than the 4% because I know there be precipices nearby...but I might feel better about 4% in 2004 than I did in 2000 with the same sized portfolios.
As far as two sequential slumps? Oh yes.
From July of 1929 to June of 1932, the Dow fell from 380 to 42. From then to August it ran up to 78. Then from August to February of 1933 it fell back to 53. A huge drop, rise and drop, percentage-wise. Substantial drops in 1937, 1938, and 1940 and 1942 after run ups. In fact there are a number of large percentage up and down cycles throughout.