Tesla Electric Semi-Truck?

[lwp2017]

Natural gas fueled large trucks are the future.

Electric trucks are uneconomical without a carbon tax credit to offset the battery cost.

 

[ocean view]

At some point shouldn't these electric vehicles pay highway taxes? Seems like they are getting a "free ride".

No more free ride in CA. We just implemented a new gas tax to help fix the roads, adding 12 cents/gallon. At the same time EV drivers will now have a transportation surcharge added to their annual registration fee to cover their share. I don’t recall the amount, maybe $100 per year.

Have any other states done anything similar?

 

[rocketjockey]

Oh then there s Roof, Powerwall, SpaceX, Solar City, and Tunnels. Maybe Hyperloop. None are meeting expectations set by Musk. Autopilot is one feature I do believe would be attractive to the semi-truck market, but I believe that feature also has a long way to go.
I was an applications engineer for heavy truck components. You all have done a good job summarizing the challenges to produce an electric semi. I could give you dozens of reasons why the market for class 6,7 electric trucks is way better and easier to implement.

I am not a semi truck applications engineer, but I AM an aerospace engineer who has work in the rocket launch biz for 20 years and counting, including several years for SpaceX.

Elon has a well known knack for overly optimistic schedules, but I would not bet against his success. In less than 15 years he has completely turned the rocket biz on its head. Unseated the longtime megacorp giants, sending them out of biz or forcing a massive scramble to try and catch up which will take decades if they pull it off. All from absolute zero. I myself laughed at SpaceX when they first came out, made fun of the amateur. Then they killed my company and I went to work for them.

Sure Tesla has piles of problems, but in just over 5 years, the have sold over 150K Model S alone. From "Who?" to outselling S-Class Benz, 7 Series BMW, A8 Audi, etc......

I might poke fun at his timing, but I would not bet against his long term vision.

 

[CaptTom]

No more free ride in CA. We just implemented a new gas tax to help fix the roads, adding 12 cents/gallon. At the same time EV drivers will now have a transportation surcharge added to their annual registration fee to cover their share. I don’t recall the amount, maybe $100 per year.

These types of taxes are ridiculous.

The roads benefit all of society, not just the car and truck owners. I'm not a fan of big government, but I have to admit there are a few things that we all benefit from if done centrally. Roads are among them.

You can argue (but please don't!) how to create a fair tax structure. But once that's decided, money for roads should come from those general tax revenues. Not just drivers and truck owners.

I'm not a big fan of tolls, for the same reasons, as well as highway safety, traffic jams and the creation of a new bureaucracy of toll collectors.

 

[mickeyd]

I hope he comes out with a hand-held, battery powered device soon that can allow people to speak to each other through a coded numbering system! That would be cool!

Will it have to be hand-held?

 

[NW-Bound]

Large EVs have been around, though they do not have the publicity of this Tesla semi engine. A Chinese company called BYD has been making large articulated buses, garbage trucks, tractors, etc... for their domestic use. They have been pushing for sales in North America.

So, the question is not whether heavy EVs are technically feasible as they are well within the reach of today's technology, but how economically competitive they are. This will be interesting to watch.

By the way, Warren Buffett invested in BYD.

 

[ERD50]

I posted this a while back - I guess some testing is still going on, but not too much news. An electric delivery/garbage truck - limited range but a constant speed turbine keeps the batteries topped off. They get the benefit of regen braking, and they say the turbine is clean and meets future EPA requirements w/o any added stuff.

https://www.wrightspeed.com/technology

http://www.early-retirement.org/for...t-the-bad-and-the-ugly-73304.html#post1746288

-ERD50

 

[Chuckanut]

Interestingly, a few years ago I read an article by a former GM exec saying that electric vehicles made more sense in expensive low mpg type vehicles. More savings bang for the buck in a 50K and up vehicle that gets lousy mileage compared to cheap small car that gets 38 mpg. The big truck seems to fit right that to a 'T'.

Bob Lutz on Electrification of Pickup Trucks and VIA Motors

Of course, Mr. Lutz tends to change his mind from time to time. But, IMHO, a Model S or a fancy roadster makes more sense than the Model 3. The Model 3's biggest competitor will be hybrids like the Prius or the new 50+ mpg hybrid Camry. My 2¢.

Mr. Musk has a habit of under estimating the time and difficulty of his projects.
OTOH, if you want to get cargo up to the ISS and then take a meaningful amount back he has the only space craft that will do that. And, his rockets, while perhaps not super dependable yet, are cheap enough that they are worth the risk. Who else can land a first stage on a barge in the ocean and then reuse it? This is hardly the mark of a con-man, IMHO.

I suspect his subsidies are not worse than many others who get the 'gubmint' to pay part of their bill. Just give some thought to ethanol as fuel. Or sugar prices. Or bailed out banks. Etc. etc. etc.....

 

[NW-Bound]

I posted this a while back - I guess some testing is still going on, but not too much news. An electric delivery/garbage truck - limited range but a constant speed turbine keeps the batteries topped off. They get the benefit of regen braking, and they say the turbine is clean and meets future EPA requirements w/o any added stuff.

https://www.wrightspeed.com/technology

http://www.early-retirement.org/for...t-the-bad-and-the-ugly-73304.html#post1746288

-ERD50

Yes. This idea of a hybrid car is not new, where propulsion is provided solely by an electric motor, whose battery is kept charged by a small combustion engine running at a constant speed. The current day version uses a high-tech turbine, but older prototypes used a small 4-stroke engine tweaked for efficiency at one constant speed.

I recall in the early 80s reading about Briggs & Stratton building such a concept car, because small 4-stroke engines were their specialty. It did not go anywhere, and I just now wonder if this company is still around.

Dug a bit better, and the same idea in that B & S concept car was implemented by a French company called Krieger, back in 1904! How about that?

PS. Yes, Briggs and Stratton is still in business. Sales in 2016 is $1.6 billion. I have not heard much about them, but then I have not been looking in the market for a lawn mower or anything that uses a small engine.

 

[ERD50]

Yes. This idea of a hybrid car is not new, where propulsion is provided solely by an electric motor, whose battery is kept charged by a small combustion engine running at a constant speed. ... .

I'm fascinated with this concept, so maybe I can fill in a few details.

The problem with a pure series hybrid ( as you say "propulsion is provided solely by an electric motor, whose battery is kept charged by a small combustion engine running at a constant speed") is that it does help efficiency to keep that engine at a constant speed. But while you cruise the highway at 65 mph, you have the losses of converting rotary motion to electric, and from electric back to rotary (maybe 10% loss each way?). Even worse if some of that is buffered by the battery (another ~15% loss in/out?).

So you also want to be able to couple that engine to the wheels directly when you can. Check out "Engineering Explained" on youtube. I think it is one of the new Hondas that runs in EV mode right up to highway speeds, and then the the ICE couples direct to wheels above ~ 35 mph - no transmission, always direct drive, just a clutch to disconnect the ICE from wheels at lower speeds.

... The current day version uses a high-tech turbine, but older prototypes used a small 4-stroke engine tweaked for efficiency at one constant speed.

WrightSpeed uses a turbine, and from what I understand it is a low maintenance engine, which makes it attractive for a fleet operator. And meets emission rules w/o added stuff. But turbines are not as efficient as a piston engine, so it really needs the stop-start regen braking advantage to come out ahead, it won't cut it in long haul trucks (Ian Wright is very upfront about that).

But what is old is new again. Recently, I posted some links to Mazda's SC-HCCI engine.

edit/add: here is the link:

http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f27/internal-combustion-engine-has-a-future-88129.html

A gasoline piston engine with the efficiency of a diesel. I think if this works out and is coupled with a strong hybrid, there is a real future for the old piston engine.

With those sorts of efficiencies, an SC-HCCI hybrid likely produces less pollution than the power plant output to charge an Electric Vehicle (even on a very 'green' grid). And no range anxiety.

-ERD50

 

[Scrapr]

I posted this a while back - I guess some testing is still going on, but not too much news. An electric delivery/garbage truck - limited range but a constant speed turbine keeps the batteries topped off. They get the benefit of regen braking, and they say the turbine is clean and meets future EPA requirements w/o any added stuff.

https://www.wrightspeed.com/technology

-ERD50

I test drove one of Ian's delivery trucks at a conference several years ago. It was very cool. The sound of the turbine going was freaky. The motors on ea wheel were very small. I'd bet <50 lbs ea. I'd bet the weight of the turbine & motors on ea wheel were much less than engine + transmission.

I would have done one of his trucks but he wasn't ready for market. Last time I looked he was doing some garbage companies in the Bay.

Just looked at his site. Looks like he is focusing on Class 8 trucks and not the lower weights. He added a transmission instead of motors on ea wheel. Weight differential vs engine + transmission looks about even now

 

[ERD50]

I test drove one of Ian's delivery trucks at a conference several years ago. It was very cool. The sound of the turbine going was freaky. The motors on ea wheel were very small. I'd bet <50 lbs ea. I'd bet the weight of the turbine & motors on ea wheel were much less than engine + transmission.

I would have done one of his trucks but he wasn't ready for market. Last time I looked he was doing some garbage companies in the Bay. ...

That's cool! I've been very impressed with Ian when I've seen interviews. He was a co-founder of Tesla, for those who were unaware of that.

-ERD50

 

[Running_Man]

These electric vehicles with their environmental reputation are merely trading carbon emissions for lethal cobalt, nickel and lithium heavy metals into the environment which are destined to become a major problem. To manufacture the battery chemicals requires a whole body suit for production workers and all these metals are serious problems in a fire, which as the spread of these batteries occurs will eventually become known as cancers are spread by exposure to the heavy metals. If one looked at the SDS sheet for the chemicals going into a battery they’d never bring it into their house.

 

[ERD50]

These electric vehicles with their environmental reputation are merely trading carbon emissions for lethal cobalt, nickel and lithium heavy metals into the environment which are destined to become a major problem. To manufacture the battery chemicals requires a whole body suit for production workers and all these metals are serious problems in a fire, which as the spread of these batteries occurs will eventually become known as cancers are spread by exposure to the heavy metals. If one looked at the SDS sheet for the chemicals going into a battery they’d never bring it into their house.

It is true that there are a lot of dangerous chemicals used in the battery production, but I have not seen anything that really breaks that down in terms of hazards to the public or environment.

But they are recycled, not just thrown about. Oil is a hazardous chemical as well. Do you have any sources that quantify the risks?

I'd like to know the same about solar panels. They use dangerous chemicals, and lots of energy in their production (the energy is paid back after about the first 2 years in the sun). They will need to be recycled in ~ 30 years, I'm not sure how green that is?

My more immediate concern is that EVs burn as about much/more fossil fuel than a good hybrid. But I think that's a different story for an EV versus diesel truck - those diesel trucks are dirty! I would expect an EV truck to have a real advantage there. Not so much with an EV car.

-ERD50

 

[6miths]

I'm glad to see Elon is continuing to create new products, but it would be nice if he could figure out how to build more than a few Model 3's each week before venturing out into two new product categories.

+1

 

[ERD50]

I'm glad to see Elon is continuing to create new products, but it would be nice if he could figure out how to build more than a few Model 3's each week before venturing out into two new product categories. ...

But I don't think the engineers that are working on the production bottlenecks (which are battery production issues, I think?) are the same ones working on vehicle designs.

And those are pretty specialized, valuable engineers. Musk needs to keep them busy, you can't just lay them off, and expect them all to come back and hit the ground running, working on a new design a year later. So I think it makes sense for Musk to keep new products in the pipeline. Each one leverages off the past, so each new product should be a little easier to get going ( yes, Musk grossly underestimated the Model 3 start-up). For example, the semi uses the Model 3 motors. I'd bet the battery pack is similar, just more of them. Etc.

Plus, he has to keep up excitement to keep that stock propped up. Can he deliver over the next few years? To be seen. And although I also see Musk as a bit of a con-man in some ways, I do appreciate that he is shaking up some of these industries with innovations that the status quo manufacturers just don't seem to be thinking of. With all the software in cars these days, they all should offer OTA updates, or at least let me download and plug in a flash drive to update my car. But you need to go into the dealer, and pay for it. That's not modern thinking.

-ERD50

 

[jazz4cash]

Wrightspeed Semi-Electric Truck

 

[NW-Bound]

I just learned of this Nikola truck which has a 320kWh battery. It claims a range of 800-1200 mi, but that's because it carries a hydrogen fuel cell to recharge the battery enroute. The cell is said to be refillable in 15 minutes, and has a top output of 300kW. Their Web site provides a lot of technical details.

Price is $375K, but that includes free hydrogen refill for 1,000,000 miles. Field test is said to be in late 2018.

 

[NW-Bound]

Some data points for those technically inclined and curious that I found on the Web from insiders.

1) It takes 2.5-3 kWh/mi to move a big and loaded semi-trailer at 65 mph on flat land. Normal driving brings that up to 3-4 kWh/mi. This number sounds reasonable as it is about 10x the energy to move a car at the same speed.

2) The latest battery technology can do 0.1 kWh/lb (10 lbs for 1 kWh). This is a bit better than the current number for EV sedan batteries.

By the way, Cummins also announced an EV semi, but for short hauls because it has a smaller battery. The date of unveiling was in Aug 2017, but it did not have the publicity of the Tesla truck. Some companies do not know the importance of PR or, more likely, how to get it.

 

[ERD50]

Some data points for those technically inclined and curious that I found on the Web from insiders.

1) It takes 2.5-3 kWh/mi to move a big and loaded semi-trailer at 65 mph on flat land. Normal driving brings that up to 3-4 kWh/mi. This number sounds reasonable as it is about 10x the energy to move a car at the same speed.

2) The latest battery technology can do 10 kWh/lb. This is a bit better than the current number for EV sedan batteries.

By the way, Cummins also announced an EV semi, but for short hauls because it has a smaller battery. The date of unveiling was in Aug 2017, but it did not have the publicity of the Tesla truck. Some companies do not know the importance of PR or, more likely, how to get it. ...

Where did you get the "2.5-3 kWh/mi to move a big and loaded semi-trailer at 65 mph on flat land" numbers? The Tesla site say "< 2 kWh/mile"

I'm not sure Cummins cares too much about the Musk style of PR. I'd bet Cummins is talking direct to their customers. Yes, they might try to get some 'green' street-cred with a electric semi - but they can probably only do that by pointing out how dirty their current diesels are! That might backfire?

-ERD50

 

[NW-Bound]

That number comes from a Nikola employee. Not surprisingly, he is not impressed with the lower number cited by Tesla.

Maybe the number can be lower if the trailers are redesigned to be as aerodynamic as the new breed of semi engines.

Important: Please note the typo error in battery weight that I already corrected. It's 10 lb/kWh, not 10 kWh/lb!

 

[ERD50]

Pricing is announced:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...at-150000-2017-11-24?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

the base price of its new semi-autonomous electric Semi big rig with a 500-mile range, which was unveiled last week, will start at $180,000. The 300-mile version will start at $150,000. The expected Founders series price is $200,000.

That's less than much of the speculation. For a diesel semi, I saw numbers of ~ $100-$150K being thrown around. And it would seem that an estimated 1,000 kWh battery (based on Tesla's 500 mile range and < 2 kWh/mile figures) would cost ~ $100K at just $100/kWh (can Tesla get that low by 2020?). If the $30K delta for an extra 200 miles is representative of the figure they need to sell their batteries at, that means $15K per each 100 miles of range, so $75K for the 500 mile range battery.

Of course, the batteries and motors replace the engine, cooling system, fuel tanks, exhaust, transmission, emissions devices, etc. That must make up a big chuck of the + $100K for a diesel truck, there isn't much else there.

So maybe not such a leap for a trucker to consider? Though by 2020, there will be lots of competition.

-ERD50

 

[aja8888]

Is he going to build these trucks on Mars?

I think more importantly than "pricing announced", it would be advantageous to Musk if he would announce where this vehicle will be built and in what facility. It takes a "good while" to permit a new facility, especially if it has Clean Air Act emissions that would require a major permit. Even for an existing facility, if there are active permits, and there is an increase in emissions, modifications to existing permits are required.

In my industrial permitting experience, it can take 2 - 5 years to permit a new manufacturing plant. And that's without concern or lawsuits from neighbors, etc. Plus, you can't even stick a shovel in the ground to start construction until air emission operating permits are granted.

Delivering these trucks in a couple of years from now may be a pipe dream. Let's also not forget these vehicles have to pass stringent OSHA testing and safety standards.

 

[NW-Bound]

The disparity of the kWh/mi numbers quoted by Tesla (<2 kWh/mi) and Nikola (up to 4 kWh/mi) was a curious point. The range of energy usage is well-known for EV sedans, but we do not yet have real-life numbers for heavy trucks.

However, a quick look on the Web found this:

The Port of Los Angeles and South Coast Air Quality Management District have demonstrated a short-range heavy-duty all-electric truck capable of hauling a fully loaded 40-foot (12 m) cargo container. The current design is capable of pulling a 60,000 lb (27 t) cargo container at speeds up to 10 mph (16 km/h) and has a range of between 30 and 60 miles (48 and 97 km). It uses 2 kilowatt-hours per mile...​

Note the cargo weight of 60,000 lbs, the speed of 10 mph, and the 2 kWh/mi number.

For 100,000-lb trailer weight and 60-70 mph, what should a reasonable number be?

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_truck

The above Wiki article also describes an 18t truck operated since 2014 in Switzerland. Its power consumption is 1.3 kWh/km (2.1 kWh/mi). It is not a semi-truck, and the integral cargo box has solar panels installed on top. The nearly 200-sq.ft. of PV panels allows the power consumption to be reduced to 1 kWh/km (1.6 kWh/mi).

The above info brings up an interesting point. Detachable trailers can be easily retrofitted with solar panels which are now dirt cheap, and these can be tethered to the engine to provide some supplemental power. Unlike cars, truck trailers have a large flat-top that's easily put to use to mount solar panels.

See photo of this truck.

 

[ERD50]

The disparity of the kWh/mi numbers quoted by Tesla (<2 kWh/mi) and Nikola (up to 4 kWh/mi) was a curious point. The range of energy usage is well-known for EV sedans, but we do not yet have real-life numbers for heavy trucks.

However, a quick look on the Web found this:

The Port of Los Angeles and South Coast Air Quality Management District have demonstrated a short-range heavy-duty all-electric truck capable of hauling a fully loaded 40-foot (12 m) cargo container. The current design is capable of pulling a 60,000 lb (27 t) cargo container at speeds up to 10 mph (16 km/h) and has a range of between 30 and 60 miles (48 and 97 km). It uses 2 kilowatt-hours per mile...​

Note the cargo weight of 60,000 lbs, the speed of 10 mph, and the 2 kWh/mi number.

For 100,000-lb trailer weight and 60-70 mph, what should a reasonable number be?

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_truck

The above Wiki article also describes an 18t truck operated since 2014 in Switzerland. Its power consumption is 1.3 kWh/km (2.1 kWh/mi). It is not a semi-truck, and the integral cargo box has solar panels installed on top. The nearly 200-sq.ft. of PV panels allows the power consumption to be reduced to 1 kWh/km (1.6 kWh/mi).

The above info brings up an interesting point. Detachable trailers can be easily retrofitted with solar panels which are now dirt cheap, and these can be tethered to the engine to provide some supplemental power. Unlike cars, truck trailers have a large flat-top that's easily put to use to mount solar panels.

...

Interesting, but those solar panel numbers seem to work out due to the limited range of that truck (240 km, 144 miles). It doesn't look so good for a long haul semi like the Tesla.

To provide the same 0.5 kWh/mile offset from rooftop solar panels while driving 60 mph in a Tesla-like vehicle, would require 30 K-Watts continuous. If we get 200 watts per panel to the batteries (after charger/converter), and that panel is ~ 18 sq ft, then we get 11 panels in 200 sq ft, and only 2.2 K-Watts. Less than 2% of the power it would take to move the Tesla at 60 mph if it is using 2 kWh/mile. Probably not worth the extra weight - better to keep the panels in the sun and feeding the grid?

Even an hour lunch break at high noon would only provide a mile of range. And all that may be generous considering you can't orient the panels to the sun.

-ERD50