The Great Crash Ahead

[Leonidas]

The U.S. military (PACOM) works very hard to [-]scare the crap out of[/-] engage with the PRC's military leadership through exercises, port visits, and conferences. So far it's going quite well.

IIRC, the authors predicted that the CHICOMS were all going the way of the Dodo, as had their contemporaries up 'round [-]USSR[/-] Russia way.

But them wascaly wabbits proved 'em wrong, what with running over the bullet riddled bodies of their own citizens with their tanks and such.

I'm thinking the Chinese leaders have thick skins, lots of national pride, and huge ambitions. They haven't gone crazy enough to take us on - not just yet anyway - but give them time and they will do their best to be a PITA.

Dent reminds me of my MiL, who believed in Astrology and the I-Ching. She predicted all kinds of crap, and every now and again something kinda-sorta happened and she proclaimed victory. If she were still alive to see the little bit of red on the back of our ten dollar bills she would swear she nailed her prediction on "red money" - http://www.zerohedge.com/article/red-money-conspiracy-theory-11

I put Dent in the same category as I placed Jim Cramer. They both have interesting ideas and theories, they're not complete crackpots, they are motivated more by selling their books and being famous than anything else, and other than being the source for alternative views no actual investments should take place based on their words.

 

[Ed_The_Gypsy]

Youw tink we s domed?

We b domed 4 sho.

Nords, I am certain your boys have instilled caution in the military leaders. Your account was wonderful. It is the political leaders I worry about.

 

[My Dream]

I know a bit off topic and I didn't take the time to read through all the posts but, I just heard that the guy that said it was going to be the end of the world awhile back is finally admitting he was wrong.

 

[HFWR]

I know a bit off topic and I didn't take the time to read through all the posts but, I just heard that the guy that said it was going to be the end of the world awhile back is finally admitting he was wrong.

Now that IS scary...

 

[Nords]

We b domed 4 sho.
Nords, I am certain your boys have instilled caution in the military leaders. Your account was wonderful. It is the political leaders I worry about.

I don't remember whether it was 2006 or 2007, but two Pacific aircraft carriers (and their attendant ships) were going west as one was returning east. It was the largest Navy ship rendezvous since Vietnam.

Whaddya do for this historic occasion-- throw a party? Nope: plan an exercise.

The two battlegroups squared off and exercised various tactical problems. Late in the planning, PACOM personally invited his PRC counterpart and several of their [-]spies[/-] staff aboard the U.S. carriers to observe the exercise.

All it took was one night of carrier ops to make the PRC understand that they would not have 24/7 air superiority. True, even U.S. pilots think that night flight ops are kinda scary. The PRC were feeling the fear of "We won't be able to do this for decades"...

Then they found out that the entire air war over Guam-- sorties, armament, tankers and on-the-fly planning changes-- was actually being handled by a joint Air Force-Navy detachment at Hickam AFB. PRC would have to shoot down a lot of satellites to put that data link out of business.

Different story: Spouse used to lead VIP tour groups of exercise COBRA GOLD in Thailand. Each year the observers included PRC officers. One year she and her team observed the PRC [-]spies[/-] officers covertly photographing the Thai-U.S. command centers and computers with their cell phones. This was duly reported up the U.S. chain of command for appropriate diplomatic reprisals. The report was returned by the PACOM staff, however, with additional guidance of "Let 'em think they're getting away with it!"

The fighting never ends-- the ammunition just changes.

 

[TargaDave]

Ah yes, "hanging by a thread". Wait a second,.... maybe it was someone else who said that. Hmmm, ECB steppin in to buy the latest Italian bond auction to keep the yields jumpin even farther beyond the point of no return on what amounts to more than 2.5 trillion in debt (if only Corzine had a little more time on that bet and figured out how to comingle taxpayer money in addition to customer money). And of course the French-bund spreads hitting new records is always a good sign.

Contagion back to the far more solvent US? No problem, it will all be just peachy as soon as the ECB's new boy, Mario borrows Ben's helicopter according to our man Jim. And of course CDS triggers would never kick in anyway since any and all defaults will be voluntary according to ISDA [-]gun pointing [/-]guidelines.

And I'm feelin much better knowin our supercommittee default cuts will get spending under control while GDP continues to accelerate (GDP is accelerating isn't it?)...........somewhere out there in the future. Blastin thru 100%debt/GDP got ya slightly worried? Once again, no worries, just stick with the forum B,B and B mantra, take solace that Bill G and Meridith got it wrong (or was their timing just off...forget I said that) and all will be perfectly well with the almighty US of A...

Of course that Jim Grant, he's just another sensationalizing lunatic

ECB's Response to Debt Crisis, Money Printing - Video - Bloomberg

(sorry to bore ya but that was fun. Good luck to all of us in these interesting times)

 

[Ed_The_Gypsy]

The PRC were feeling the fear of "We won't be able to do this for decades"...

And then we will have something else.

Now back to your regularly scheduled thread.

 

[REWahoo]

Bold predictions: More entertainment than truth

Remember Dow 36,000, published to much fanfare during the heady bull market of the mid-1990s? How about Why the Real Estate Boom Will Not Bust, published in 2006? And late last year, a well-known analyst predicted widespread defaults on debt during 2011 by state and municipal governments.

How did that all work out?

... although many predictions miss their mark or are ill-timed, people continue to listen to them avidly.

"There is a deep-rooted need to believe that we live in a predictable and controllable universe," Mr. Tetlock said. In addition, "people anticipate intense regret—and a lot of blame—if they failed to heed authoritative-sounding advice that subsequently turned out to be accurate."

So demand outstrips supply in the forecasting business. And while there really aren't any expert seers, there are a lot of people eager to fill that market niche.

"The media rewards simplistic sound bites," he said. "It is a big mistake to confuse entertainment value with truth value."

 

[ziggy29]

The bottom line is that greed and fear get attention and sell product.