This time is different!!

[Dash man]

Presumably, many of us have picked a certain Asset Allocation with the idea that there will be great times, bad times and lots of middle times. Unless you have found your reasoning for that AA to be defective, just stick to the AA.

Absolutely! But it is a great time to do in kind conversions from a traditional IRA to a Roth IRA. Move the shares and pay less tax because of the lower values!

 

[MRG]

This time is different.

In '08 I was working, today I'm retired.

In '08 I had little control over the instruments or allocation I had, today I have complete control.

In '08 my allocation was 90/10, today it's 50/50.

In '08 a major part of my assets were in Megacorp stock, today there is no Megacorp. [emoji23]

In '08 if Megacorp let me go my world would end, today I'm going for a walk on the river.

In '08 I listened to financial advice from talkshow pundits, today I'm letting the indexes work.

Today I feel comfortable. [emoji846]

 

[Live Free]

I'm the idiot who cashed out at the bottom of the '08 crash after never having touched my 80/20 AA for 20+ years. I got back in in 2011. What a disastrous mistake. I vowed then "never again". I'm done with market timing. I am 70/30 and staying there for the next 8 years, when I will drop my AA to 60/40- even if an asteroid hits.

 

[harley]

Hang on you lot, what is all the panicking about? in 2008 the low was 7449!!!!!! It is now 29,000!!!!! ~400% increase, the Dow can go to ~17k before you should even start to worry.... right?

Actually, today it's 25,750. But I do agree this isn't worth getting too worked up about.

I considered doing some market timing and selling to stop the bleeding, but every time I started I backed off. I'm a bit cash-strapped right now, so I was thinking if I sold now (which would be selling high, even after the recent drops) I'd have some cash to do some buying if it went lower. But then I remembered that the reason I'm cash strapped is I borrowed some money from our personal accounts to cover some business deals last Nov/Dec. The payments should be coming in next month, so hopefully I'll get an inflow of cash just in time for the bottom to occur. In my experience, it's usually better to be lucky than smart. I've made some of my best financial moves by not doing what I thought would be a good idea.

 

[NW-Bound]

Hang on you lot, what is all the panicking about? in 2008 the low was 7449!!!!!! It is now 29,000!!!!! ~400% increase, the Dow can go to ~17k before you should even start to worry.... right?

I thought you are holding mostly fixed income.

 

[tdv2]

While I didn’t cash out any stocks, I just got off the phone moving some stocks from my tIRA to my Roth IRA. May as well make the conversion move while prices aren’t as sky high.

+1

 

[Perryinva]

I went to just under 10% equities in the Nov2019 time frame, after being 80% since 2009. . It just seemed too good to be true, and just retired @ 61 & 66. I was wondering what the heck I was thinking 2 weeks ago. Now I remember. I don’t normally time, but....since we don’t live off investments at all, it made sense in light of things at the time. I’m not normally this lucky.

 

[Dtail]

+1

I don't disagree.

The psychological aspects of being older are potentially more challenging, I guess. Those remaining 25 years presumably will be without significant wage income, as well as involving ever-escalating risks such as deteriorating health. Watching one's portfolio go through the ringer in such an age bracket could be more stress inducing.

I think much of this is psychological. The psychological aspects of investing are fascinating.

Well I am 60 y.o. and am doing fine with this correction so far.
It is still less than Dec 2018 and as stated in a different thread, we do have corrections almost every 2 years.
If there is a bear market of 50% drop, well then.....

 

[NW-Bound]

Of course this time is definitely different.

Starting in 2000, we had the dot-com bubble burst, then 9/11. After that came the subprime meltdown. Now, it's a virus. It has not repeated. It's always something new.

"If it's not one thing, it's 'nother" -- Gilda Radner.

PS. After this virus, the next one may be REWahoo's asteroid. Youse guys have not seen nothin'.

 

[Bestwifeever]

Every time the economy moves downward it is different for each of us, but overall and over time the broader markets recover, so in general we can say it's no different.

No one I know IRL is very concerned about the markets or the pandemic (a word wrought with fear that does not really mean immediate death in the streets). Besides not checking our accounts too often, I'm avoiding some of the threads here.

 

[NW-Bound]

My mocking post was an attempt at a joke.

 

[Bestwifeever]

My mocking post was an attempt at a joke.

So sorry if it appeared I was responding to you! Not at all, I did not quote you (and yes I love a joke and of course Gilda Radner).

 

[Perryinva]

Wasn’t that Anna Rosanna Danna?

 

[palomalou]

In my investment class I recommend that students check their portfolios every year or two, but if they hear that the market has gone down then skip checking for two or three years.

Shooter, I am interested—so you suggest rebalancing that infrequently? We do it every 14-15 months.

 

[candrew]

However, even with the Spanish Flu of 1918/1919, the results were relatively short lived. The market DID go down (about 25% if I remember correctly), but then after that we entered into the roaring 20's with fantastic stock market appreciations.

Glad that you survived the Spanish Flu and are able to regale us with your anecdotes!

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

Glad that you survived the Spanish Flu and are able to regale us with your anecdotes!

Yes, it was a tough time! Isn't it funny that I am not sure about such a recent memory (1918), while I can remember the Black Plague as if it were yesterday.

 

[steelyman]

So sorry if it appeared I was responding to you! Not at all, I did not quote you (and yes I love a joke and of course Gilda Radner).

Those who remember the early SNL days and “Jaws” can probably imagine the virus knocking at the door.

“Shark Attack!”

 

[Bestwifeever]

Those who remember the early SNL days and “Jaws” can probably imagine the virus knocking at the door.

“Shark Attack!”

Or

“Coronagram”!

 

[Retch The Grate]

I'm cutting my automatic monthly investments to 0. BUT, that's because DW just lost her job thanks to a bureaucratic snafu so our cash inflow is down by about 60% until her paperwork goes through and I'd rather keep our net cash position stable rather than spending it down. The market, meh.

 

[steelyman]

Or

“Coronagram”!

“Girl Scout cookies”

 

[NW-Bound]

Yes, it was a tough time! Isn't it funny that I am not sure about such a recent memory (1918), while I can remember the Black Plague as if it were yesterday.

Hmmm... In all the vampire movies that I have seen, the immortal protagonist always manages to be quite well-funded, and never has to rely on the stock market for his finance.

But then, movies are of course not real life, and a vampire in real life has to make money somehow, I guess.

 

[MRG]

Yes, it was a tough time! Isn't it funny that I am not sure about such a recent memory (1918), while I can remember the Black Plague as if it were yesterday.

How did the market recover from Black Plague?

I had a call with my Vanguard guy today obviously recent market moves were discussed. He spit out a fact, according to him, that the last 11 similar events in 9 cases the market recovered in 6 months. I think one that took longer was early 80s around AIDS among other things. Maybe the plague was longer too?

 

[sengsational]

“Coronagram”!

Good one!

 

[Amethyst]

Probably because he's usually had the Magic of Compounding on his side since at least 1632.

Hmmm... In all the vampire movies that I have seen, the immortal protagonist always manages to be quite well-funded, and never has to rely on the stock market for his finance.

.

 

[Out_the_Door]

Hmmm... In all the vampire movies that I have seen, the immortal protagonist always manages to be quite well-funded, and never has to rely on the stock market for his finance.

But then, movies are of course not real life, and a vampire in real life has to make money somehow, I guess.

That's because vampires always put all their money in "Blood Banks"...Sorry, I couldn't resist. . .