Thoughts on TESLA

[Texas Proud]

A good prediction, but made prior to the success of the Tesla Model 3. What they were predicting for 2020 and beyond actually started in 2017. Also, the success of hybrids has not followed in the numbers predicted and the cost of electric cars has come down much faster than they predicted.

The way this works has been laid out before. As soon as the winner in a marketplace is made clear, the losers are quickly abandoned. Remember Beta tapes? As soon as VHS took over (thanks to pornography), the Beta format collapsed. Once DVD's became the preferred format VHS quickly collapsed, and once streaming video claimed the lead, DVDs became a side note. There is only one Blockbuster video still open and it exists as a novelty.

Will gas cars still be around in 10 years? Of course. Just as I still have some VHS tapes on my shelf collecting dust. New cars will be electric, however, and with a dying gas car market, gas stations will become another Blockbuster video. A novelty, not a necessity.

You example has nothing to do with cars... a car is a major investment that will last 10 to 30 years... it will not be abandoned like the Beta tape...


I doubt that even if they wanted to car companies could only make EVs by 2030. The change will just not happen as fast as you think it will. Heck, even going from the horse and buggy to cars took many decades and that was a very clear winner... and EV vs ICE is not so clear... right now the ICE is still the winner if the decision is based on costs...

 

[oneill225]

You example has nothing to do with cars... a car is a major investment that will last 10 to 30 years... it will not be abandoned like the Beta tape...
I doubt that even if they wanted to car companies could only make EVs by 2030. The change will just not happen as fast as you think it will. Heck, even going from the horse and buggy to cars took many decades and that was a very clear winner... and EV vs ICE is not so clear... right now the ICE is still the winner if the decision is based on costs...

It isn't about cars as much as it is about a superior technology displacing another. In this case, battery vs. internal combustion. Once charging is considered a non-issue, prices drop a little more, and range is extended, ICE cars/trucks cannot compete.

All of the above will happen over the next few years. After that, only the cheapest ICE cars and a small number of hybrids will continue to sell in any big numbers because anyone who can afford the cost will make the switch to full EV when they buy their next vehicle. Why wouldn't they?

Invest in Tesla and natural gas producers/suppliers (who will fuel the power plants). They will do very well over the next ten years.

 

[eroscott]

You example has nothing to do with cars... a car is a major investment that will last 10 to 30 years... it will not be abandoned like the Beta tape...

I doubt that even if they wanted to car companies could only make EVs by 2030. The change will just not happen as fast as you think it will. Heck, even going from the horse and buggy to cars took many decades and that was a very clear winner... and EV vs ICE is not so clear... right now the ICE is still the winner if the decision is based on costs...

I also think that cars (and trucks) are a different paradigm. There are many adoption charts and the adoption is more 'vertical' in recent times but I think it is for less costly items than cars.

Factors
* People that like big trucks/SUVs will be slower to adopt (mindset)
* People that lease cars or love to drive new cars every 2-3 yrs to avoid maint or want latest/greatest -- i.e. turnover but used cars go so someone
* USA will be slower to adopt because cheap/subsidized gas. Plus large-travel-area/landmass and concerns for trips related to that
* Europe will adopt faster than the USA because of fuel and very rapid acceptance of charging stations (100s times more than the USA)
* China (4x population of USA) gov is pushing electric cars on various monetary incentives to consumers and manufacturers.
* Utility companies are on-board and solar has dropped to a point to make it worthwhile for their solar farms. Battery storage magnifies this. Related article: https://phys.org/news/2019-03-dollars-big-batteries-grid.html

I think we are at a tipping point in the next 5 years because all the big players are now committed (and in a major way because of Tesla).

 

[ERD50]

It isn't about cars ... .

No, it is about cars. Really. And infrastructure.

... Once charging is considered a non-issue, ...
All of the above will happen over the next few years...

Well that's quite a caveat, I don't even need to include the price/range issues you added.

Charging can't become a non-issue for the masses in "the next few years". Sure, you can always say it's not an issue for people with garages and chargers, or who can charge at work, or who don't take long trips on a time limit, or.... But that's a tautology - it's not an issue for the people who don't have an issue with it? Charging will be an issue for many for a long time, more than a decade for many.

... After that, only the cheapest ICE cars and a small number of hybrids will continue to sell in any big numbers because anyone who can afford the cost will make the switch to full EV when they buy their next vehicle. ....

Wait, you just said that once costs "drop a little more, .. ICE cars/trucks cannot compete." Now only those who can afford them? Are you backpedaling on that already? Have you really thought about this?

... will make the switch to full EV when they buy their next vehicle. Why wouldn't they? ...

Plenty of reasons why many people won't make the switch to an EV with their next vehicle have been posted here. Heck, you just mentioned some of them! Charging is not a "non-issue", cost, range.... And those are from you!

... Invest in Tesla and natural gas producers/suppliers (who will fuel the power plants). They will do very well over the next ten years.

I'd love to see all your Tesla/EV predictions in a list in one post - how have you done so far?

-ERD50

 

[ERD50]

...
I think we are at a tipping point in the next 5 years because all the big players are now committed (and in a major way because of Tesla). ...

Can you define "tipping point"? Is it 50% of new car sales are BEV? If not, what?

-ERD50

 

[oneill225]

I also think that cars (and trucks) are a different paradigm. There are many adoption charts and the adoption is more 'vertical' in recent times but I think it is for less costly items than cars.
Factors
* People that like big trucks/SUVs will be slower to adopt (mindset)
* People that lease cars or love to drive new cars every 2-3 yrs to avoid maint or want latest/greatest -- i.e. turnover but used cars go so someone
* USA will be slower to adopt because cheap/subsidized gas. Plus large-travel-area/landmass and concerns for trips related to that
* Europe will adopt faster than the USA because of fuel and very rapid acceptance of charging stations (100s times more than the USA)
* China (4x population of USA) gov is pushing electric cars on various monetary incentives to consumers and manufacturers.
* Utility companies are on-board and solar has dropped to a point to make it worthwhile for their solar farms. Battery storage magnifies this.

The relative cost of the item has little to do with it. When there is a leap in technology, the old tech is left behind. If you want a more costly example, look at jet airplanes overtaking prop planes and ocean liners.

I acknowledge that some will hold onto their old ICE cars until the bitter end, but they will be a tiny minority of car/truck users. Horse-drawn buggies were still around years into the early ICE days. The fact that some still use them, today, does not negate the fact that they are no longer a relevant form of transportation.

The only advantage of ICE over EV is cost and range anxiety. Improvements to both are ongoing. Once an EV can be purchased for the same (or similar) cost as an ICE vehicle, ICE will lose.

Regarding trucks, EV trucks will have superior torque, handling, and towing capacity. Again, why would any avid trucker choose to drive an inferior vehicle?

I am not saying ICE cars won't be around, but they will not be the new sales in ten years and they will quickly go away as it becomes harder to find cheap gas and buyers of used ICE cars.

 

[bobandsherry]

The way this works has been laid out before. As soon as the winner in a marketplace is made clear, the losers are quickly abandoned. Remember Beta tapes? As soon as VHS took over (thanks to pornography), the Beta format collapsed.

Really, that's what you think did in Betamax? Come on, let's get real. Let's walk through perhaps a better understanding.

Betamax came out a year before VHS. VHS (JVC) ended up dominating Beta (Sony) as JVC licensed the technology freely to any manufacturer that was interested. This in turn created competition and drove prices down on VHS units. Sony on the other hand wanted to retain sole control of Betamax format. They were then the only manufacturer and as with any Sony product, it cost more than competing products.

So interesting observation, and perhaps can draw parallel's to Tesla (time will tell). Betamax owned 100% of the market in 1975 (as VHS didn't roll out until 1976). By 1980 VHS controlled 60% (North America market) and by 1981 VHS controlled 75% of the market. The movie studios (and perhaps the porn industry as well) embraced the VHS format as that was the dominate format.

In the end it came down to:

1) Cost - while Beta held a slightly superior recording format, consumers could not differentiate and VHS units cost less so consumer flocked to them. VHS cost hundred less than Beta machines.

2) Recording time - Beta was limited to one hour, while VHS would hold 2 hours - a full movie could easily be recorded on VHS and wouldn't fit on Beta. Beta later came out with longer recording tape (IMHO a desperate move to finally cave into consumer demands) but it was already too late, consumers had already chosen VHS.

So what did Beta (Sony) in was they didn't take into account what the consumer wanted. Sony believed the consumer wanted a superior format and would be willing to pay more. But turned out they really wanted an affordable VCR and really appreciated the longer recording time. And by the way, having a choice of manufacturer's instead of just one, also probably swayed the consumer.

Will gas cars still be around in 10 years? Of course. Just as I still have some VHS tapes on my shelf collecting dust. New cars will be electric, however, and with a dying gas car market, gas stations will become another Blockbuster video. A novelty, not a necessity.

This is more than EV vs. ICE. Specific to this thread, it's more Tesla vs. competition. Will Tesla end up being like Sony with the Beta with the other manufacturer's coming out with VHS? That's more the question for a Tesla investor. As I said earlier, time will tell.

 

[aja8888]

The relative cost of the item has little to do with it. When there is a leap in technology, the old tech is left behind. If you want a more costly example, look at jet airplanes overtaking prop planes and ocean liners.

I acknowledge that some will hold onto their old ICE cars until the bitter end, but they will be a tiny minority of car/truck users. Horse-drawn buggies were still around years into the early ICE days. The fact that some still use them, today, does not negate the fact that they are no longer a relevant form of transportation.

The only advantage of ICE over EV is cost and range anxiety. Improvements to both are ongoing. Once an EV can be purchased for the same (or similar) cost as an ICE vehicle, ICE will lose.

Regarding trucks, EV trucks will have superior torque, handling, and towing capacity. Again, why would any avid trucker choose to drive an inferior vehicle?

I am not saying ICE cars won't be around, but they will not be the new sales in ten years and they will quickly go away as it becomes harder to find cheap gas buyers of used ICE cars.

My bold above:

1. Jet planes are flown by corporations. Most (very high percentage) private pilots fly ICE planes.

2. Just about EVERYONE I know is happy with their Audi. Lexus, VW, BMW and other ICE cars and will NOT be getting rid of them for an EV. Obviously, it is an older crowd I hang with.

3. Please tell me when an Ev can be bought for ~$25,000 without incentives (taxpayers kicking in).

4. Quite frankly, my 1998 F150 (below) with 48,000 original miles is paid for, can haul ANYTHING I need, and will last another 20 years given proper care. There is really no incentive to pay upwards of $100,000++ for an electric pickup truck, which, BTW, is not available yet. And that's just me, but many of my friends have very nice trucks and plan to keep them for a long time. That's going to be a tough market to break into for EV's.

 

[oneill225]

No, it is about cars. Really. And infrastructure.
Charging can't become a non-issue for the masses in "the next few years". Sure, you can always say it's not an issue for people with garages and chargers, or who can charge at work, or who don't take long trips on a time limit, or.... But that's a tautology - it's not an issue for the people who don't have an issue with it? Charging will be an issue for many for a long time, more than a decade for many.

Charging solutions continue to proliferate. The "masses" you refer to living in apartments will, no doubt, be the last to switch over because they are also lower income and/or living in a larger city with decent bus service (soon to be electric bus service). Once a full charge can be had in less than 15 minutes, they won't even need a charger at their parking spot because they will be able to charge at the grocery store or dedicated fast charging station (a single charge should last them a week or more, by then).
Also, don't think that charging capability at apartments and condos won't improve each and every year going forward. Meanwhile the other "masses" have garages and carports, so none of this is an issue.

Wait, you just said that once costs "drop a little more, .. ICE cars/trucks cannot compete." Now only those who can afford them? Are you backpedaling on that already? Have you really thought about this?

I am saying that an ICE car that costs the same as a similar EV cannot compete. The advantages of EV performance, fuel savings, and maintenance savings will win the day (ignoring all environmental advantages). I don't think it is very controversial to state that cost is a factor in buying decisions.

Plenty of reasons why many people won't make the switch to an EV with their next vehicle have been posted here. Heck, you just mentioned some of them! Charging is not a "non-issue", cost, range.... And those are from you!

Short-sighted. We are not even two years into this shift and millions are now driving EVs around the globe. I am not sure what you are trying to defend. Is it your contention that EVs are not superior cars? Do you believe that the battery and charging tech will not improve? If I can charge my inexpensive EV in 10-15 minutes at a charging station conveniently located where I shop or eat, then how is that much different than gassing-up at Costco once a week?

Two years ago we would not be having this conversation because no one believed EVs were ready for prime-time. The pace of production and innovation is now increasing every year. Three years from now, charging will be faster and range on the cheap EVs will be over 300 miles. These are not crazy predictions.

 

[oneill225]

Really, that's what you think did in Betamax? Come on, let's get real. Let's walk through perhaps a better understanding.
Betamax came out a year before VHS. VHS (JVC) ended up dominating Beta (Sony) as JVC licensed the technology freely to any manufacturer that was interested. This in turn created competition and drove prices down on VHS units. Sony on the other hand wanted to retain sole control of Betamax format. They were then the only manufacturer and as with any Sony product, it cost more than competing products.
So interesting observation, and perhaps can draw parallel's to Tesla (time will tell). Betamax owned 100% of the market in 1975 (as VHS didn't roll out until 1976). By 1980 VHS controlled 60% (North America market) and by 1981 VHS controlled 75% of the market. The movie studios (and perhaps the porn industry as well) embraced the VHS format as that was the dominate format.
In the end it came down to:
1) Cost - while Beta held a slightly superior recording format, consumers could not differentiate and VHS units cost less so consumer flocked to them. VHS cost hundred less than Beta machines.
2) Recording time - Beta was limited to one hour, while VHS would hold 2 hours - a full movie could easily be recorded on VHS and wouldn't fit on Beta. Beta later came out with longer recording tape (IMHO a desperate move to finally cave into consumer demands) but it was already too late, consumers had already chosen VHS.
So what did Beta (Sony) in was they didn't take into account what the consumer wanted. Sony believed the consumer wanted a superior format and would be willing to pay more. But turned out they really wanted an affordable VCR and really appreciated the longer recording time. And by the way, having a choice of manufacturer's instead of just one, also probably swayed the consumer.
This is more than EV vs. ICE. Specific to this thread, it's more Tesla vs. competition. Will Tesla end up being like Sony with the Beta with the other manufacturer's coming out with VHS? That's more the question for a Tesla investor. As I said earlier, time will tell.

Off topic, but porn did play a huge role in VHS adoption because that was the format used by the industry. Do a little more research.

 

[oneill225]

My bold above:
1. Jet planes are flown by corporations. Most (very high percentage) private pilots fly ICE planes.
2. Just about EVERYONE I know is happy with their Audi. Lexus, VW, BMW and other ICE cars and will NOT be getting rid of them for an EV. Obviously, it is an older crowd I hang with.
3. Please tell me when an Ev can be bought for ~$25,000 without incentives (taxpayers kicking in).
4. Quite frankly, my 1998 F150 (below) with 48,000 original miles is paid for, can haul ANYTHING I need, and will last another 20 years given proper care. There is really no incentive to pay upwards of $100,000++ for an electric pickup truck, which, BTW, is not available yet. And that's just me, but many of my friends have very nice trucks and plan to keep them for a long time. That's going to be a tough market to break into for EV's.
View attachment 31094

Ten years from now, you may be in the market for a new truck. I think you will find that your choices will be limited to electric. Nothing against the cars and trucks we have now. I do not own an EV, but our next car will be one. That will mean we will have one EV and one ICE car in the garage. I fully appreciate the history and role of ICE vehicles in our lives, but I also appreciate this new and improved technology.

By the way, prop driven airplanes controlled the commercial skies until the late 50's. The Boeing 707 was the Tesla Model 3 of it's time.

 

[Texas Proud]

The relative cost of the item has little to do with it. When there is a leap in technology, the old tech is left behind. If you want a more costly example, look at jet airplanes overtaking prop planes and ocean liners.

I acknowledge that some will hold onto their old ICE cars until the bitter end, but they will be a tiny minority of car/truck users. Horse-drawn buggies were still around years into the early ICE days. The fact that some still use them, today, does not negate the fact that they are no longer a relevant form of transportation.

The only advantage of ICE over EV is cost and range anxiety. Improvements to both are ongoing. Once an EV can be purchased for the same (or similar) cost as an ICE vehicle, ICE will lose.

Regarding trucks, EV trucks will have superior torque, handling, and towing capacity. Again, why would any avid trucker choose to drive an inferior vehicle?

I am not saying ICE cars won't be around, but they will not be the new sales in ten years and they will quickly go away as it becomes harder to find cheap gas and buyers of used ICE cars.

First, airplanes are a bit of a problem to compare as the same basic design keeps getting updated and since there are only 2 major makers they will only sell the latest versions... but 737s were sold decades ago and are still being sold...


But let's compare that to the fleet out there.... you keep talking about gas stations being gone, or almost gone in 10 years.... but even with all the new airplanes being sold the avg fleet age of some airlines are really old...


Read about some of the fleet and you will see that 20+ year old planes are common... it is not like the whole fleet is replaced just because of some new technology...



And to me the difference between an EV and ICE is not some major breakthrough in new technology... the car is still a car... it gets you from point A to point B... the EV does not do it any faster or any better... as far as the driver knows there is zero difference in your 'new' technology....





https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/07/03/average-fleet-age-of-the-10-major-us-airlines.aspx

 

[aja8888]

And to me the difference between an EV and ICE is not some major breakthrough in new technology... the car is still a car... it gets you from point A to point B... the EV does not do it any faster or any better... as far as the driver knows there is zero difference in your 'new' technology....

https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/07/03/average-fleet-age-of-the-10-major-us-airlines.aspx

Exactly...I've read the same elsewhere. The basic "car/truck" is still the same as it have been for 100+ years. Basically, a platform with a driveline, wheels, brakes, steering, seating and some functional controls for piloting the vehicle.

The only real technology increases have been accomplished with different propulsion systems, improved driver control and stopping, better tire materials, aerodynamic improvements, and personal comfort features.

Otherwise, a car is a car is a car.

Now, when one (a personal car/truck vehicle) is developed for the masses (and affordable) that has the ability to fly from place to place, then that's new technology.

 

[oneill225]

And to me the difference between an EV and ICE is not some major breakthrough in new technology... the car is still a car... it gets you from point A to point B... the EV does not do it any faster or any better... as far as the driver knows there is zero difference in your 'new' technology.

We will have to agree to disagree on there being no difference. The last time I checked EVs:

1. Cost less to drive and maintain than ICE;
2. Emit no deadly fumes in your face;
3. Are faster and produce better torque;
4. Handle better due to low center of gravity;
5. Can be fueled at home while you sleep (for many, if not most);
6. Are quiet with superior sound systems; and,
7. Can be more comfortable inside due to no transmission tunnel.

If you can incorporate all of these advantages while getting from point A to point B at a similar price point, why wouldn't you? You could also sit on an old stump in your living room. I prefer a lounge chair, however.

 

[aja8888]

We will have to agree to disagree on there being no difference. The last time I checked EVs:

1. Cost less to drive and maintain than ICE;
2. Emit no deadly fumes in your face;
3. Are faster and produce better torque;
4. Handle better due to low center of gravity;
5. Can be fueled at home while you sleep (for many, if not most);
6. Are quiet with superior sound systems; and,
7. Can be more comfortable inside due to no transmission tunnel.

If you can incorporate all of these advantages while getting from point A to point B at a similar price point, why wouldn't you? You could also sit on an old stump in your living room. I prefer a lounge chair, however.

1. Cost less to drive and maintain than ICE; But cost way more to purchase

2. Emit no deadly fumes in your face; No deadly fumes are in my face when I drive my cars - i sit inside

3. Are faster and produce better torque; This is relative and is not an advantage unless you are racing competitively. There is no such thing as "better torque" - torque is torque....

4. Handle better due to low center of gravity; You need to prove that as other components make up the handling characteristic of a vehicle.

5. Can be fueled at home while you sleep (for many, if not most); Not an advantage, it a choice.

6. Are quiet with superior sound systems; and, Many ICE are very quiet, some so quiet you can't tell they are running. No advantage. Also, ANY car can have a great sound system. My 17 year old BMW has a wonderful Harmon Kardon system in it "stock".

7. Can be more comfortable inside due to no transmission tunnel. Name me a car that has a transmission tunnel in it that is made today (not truck). 99% are FWD. (in any event, it has nothing to do with comfort)

 

[oneill225]

1. Cost less to drive and maintain than ICE; But cost way more to purchase

2. Emit no deadly fumes in your face; No deadly fumes are in my face when I drive my cars - i sit inside

3. Are faster and produce better torque; This is relative and is not an advantage unless you are racing competitively. There is no such thing as "better torque" - torque is torque....

4. Handle better due to low center of gravity; You need to prove that as other components make up the handling characteristic of a vehicle.

5. Can be fueled at home while you sleep (for many, if not most); Not an advantage, it a choice.

6. Are quiet with superior sound systems; and, Many ICE are very quiet, some so quiet you can't tell they are running. No advantage. Also, ANY car can have a great sound system. My 17 year old BMW has a wonderful Harmon Kardon system in it "stock".

7. Can be more comfortable inside due to no transmission tunnel. Name me a car that has a transmission tunnel in it that is made today (not truck). 99% are FWD. (in any event, it has nothing to do with comfort)

Glad that you are happy. To each his own.

 

[Running_Man]

You could also sit on an old stump in your living room. I prefer a lounge chair, however.
You can review your old VHS collection in your chosen repose , I kinda like my oak chair stump

!

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

Just got home from lunch. Drove to Downey and plugged in my X at the supercharger. Had lamb and chicken at the Green Olive restaurant. Walked the 40 yards or so back to my car which had charged to 90%. Can't beat it.

 

[bobandsherry]

Off topic, but porn did play a huge role in VHS adoption because that was the format used by the industry. Do a little more research.

There ya go again, just saying things without providing any source to back ya up. Then tell me to do my research.

It's more like this.... Beta would not license their technology to porn industry, VHS did. VHS was already leading the market in consumer demand.

Tell ya what, I'll show you mine, now show me yours.

The legend is that Sony’s Betamax lost the “Videotape Format Wars” to VHS because Sony refused to mass produce pornographic films. While it may have helped in VHS’s victory, there is no definite proof that there was much of an influence at all.

https://knowledgenuts.com/2014/03/05/betamax-didnt-lose-to-vhs-because-of-adult-films/

 

[bobandsherry]

Just got home from lunch. Drove to Downey and plugged in my X at the supercharger. Had lamb and chicken at the Green Olive restaurant. Walked the 40 yards or so back to my car which had charged to 90%. Can't beat it.

I stop at the gas station, fill up my ride once a week and I'm good. If I run low, I can find gas within a couple miles of just about anywhere. I don't have to plan to be at a particular restaurant just because it had charger nearby. I'm just back from dinner along the gulf tonight. There was definitely no charger nearby, but plenty of gas stations. So yes, I quite easily can beat it.

 

[ls99]

Seems a Tesla fan is not happy. WARNING colorful language.
Owner can not open car door from inside using any of the standard methods, like pulling the door handle.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1112227295631159297

 

[aja8888]

Seems a Tesla fan is not happy. WARNING colorful language.
Owner can not open car door from inside using any of the standard methods, like pulling the door handle.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1112227295631159297

He could always break the window, but where would he get a replacement?

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

I stop at the gas station, fill up my ride once a week and I'm good. If I run low, I can find gas within a couple miles of just about anywhere. I don't have to plan to be at a particular restaurant just because it had charger nearby. I'm just back from dinner along the gulf tonight. There was definitely no charger nearby, but plenty of gas stations. So yes, I quite easily can beat it.

You quite easily can beat it, you say?

Tell us how you get free gasoline?

My vehicle was fueled for free at the supercharger.

I'll make a wild prediction: You won't type "You're right Mr, Tightwad". Instead, you'll continue to pay for your gasoline, and somehow justify to yourself how paying for smelly gasoline "beats" getting free electricity.

 

[Chuckanut]

The people I know who have an EV consist of two car families with one EV and one ICE (easily the majority), a couple with two EVs and no ICE, and a single young guy with one EV.

The above is simply my observation. My conclusion based on this observation is that people will buy what meets their needs no matter what the ‘experts’ and know-it-alls predict. Yeah, I know, it’s pretty radical stuff.

 

[Ready]

We have two Model 3’s in our family and no other cars. The best part of owning the Model 3’s is when we drive by the local gas station and observe how expensive gasoline is becoming in So Cal. And then we remember, oh yeah that doesn’t matter any more.