Thoughts on TESLA

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NW-Bound said:
Cars are energy hogs, whether they run on charged batteries or gasoline or diesel.

The world would be a better place if more people took public transit. :hide:
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Tell us about your RV trips and the cost of fuel per mile! :duh:

I suppose you take a bus to the grocery store? :LOL:
 
aja8888 said:
Tell us about your RV trips and the cost of fuel per mile! :duh:

I suppose you take a bus to the grocery store? :LOL:
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I said "more people taking public transit". It does not necessarily include myself. ;)

I don't drive fast or crave for a muscle car. So, I deserve to drive. :angel:

Moreover, as George Orwell who said that "all animals are equal, but some are more equal than others", I am among the more equal ones. :cool:
 
Anyway, back on Tesla, there has not been much in the news about Solar City, which is now part of Tesla. I wonder how that operation is doing.
 
The Tesla Model 3 price is directly related to safety: At the price they sell for, there's zero chance I'll be killed driving one. Ya can't get safer than that.
 
From today's NYT: Tesla's Biggest Problem Isn't Elon Musk


From the piece:
From January to June of this year, Tesla generated revenues of $7.4 billion, but it had an operating loss of $1.7 billion, burning through its cash on hand. It has $2.2 billion left, most of which will be needed to cover operating losses. Romit Shah, a research analyst at Nomura Instinet and once one of Tesla’s biggest boosters, reversed course last week, calling the company “no longer investable.”
....


One chunk of the convertible debt, $230 million, is due in November. The conversion price is around $560 per share. If Tesla’s stock is not trading at more than $560 per share by then, the holders of those notes will most likely want cash.
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That convertible bond of $230M was inherited from Solar City, hence the awfully high conversion price due to the stock conversion between Solar City and Tesla at the merger.

Tesla's own bond of $920M is convertible at $360, and it is coming up in Feb 2019.

Then, another $1.38B is due in March 2021, also convertible at $360.
 
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Uh oh, another exec just bailed out. It's Liam O'Connor, VP of global supply management.
 
NW-Bound said:
Uh oh, another exec just bailed out. It's Liam O'Connor, VP of global supply management.
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He was former Apple global procurement director. Since this thread was started as a question on opinions on whether to buy or not Tesla has done nothing the S&P 500 is up 21%. So today you have 17 months of additional information and no additional cost to buy or not buy TESLA. In fact for the last 4 years as the Model 3 has been shown to be the best industrial achievement in the history of mankind and the likely savior of our planet and the principal hope that hurricanes will be banished from our planet by our all knowing CEO Elon Musk, the stock has gone nowhere net. The S&P 500 up 55%, this again is a display of the generosity and spirit of Elon Musk in keeping the price of the stock within reach of the average American so they can participate in Tesla and it's global savior program, because we all know the poor rubble of the world will never be able to afford one of his cars, nor should they, but may be able in 10 years to get an UBER ride from an autonomous ride after the banishment of those terrible fossil things, or for $15 an hour they can come to the factory and detail and polish one of Elon's cars prior to the presentation and tax breaks for the great individuals deserving of such a fine automobile.
 
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Running_Man said:
He was former Apple global procurement director. Since this thread was started as a question on opinions on whether to buy or not Tesla has done nothing the S&P 500 is up 21%. So today you have 17 months of additional information and no additional cost to buy or not buy TESLA. In fact for the last 4 years as the Model 3 has been shown to be the best industrial achievement in the history of mankind and the likely savior of our planet and the principal hope that hurricanes will be banished from our planet by our all knowing CEO Elon Musk, the stock has gone nowhere net. The S&P 500 up 55%, this again is a display of the generosity and spirit of Elon Musk in keeping the price of the stock within reach of the average American so they can participate in Tesla and it's global savior program, because we all know the poor rubble of the world will never be able to afford one of his cars, nor should they, but may be able in 10 years to get an UBER ride from an autonomous ride after the banishment of those terrible fossil things, or for $15 an hour they can come to the factory and detail and polish one of Elon's cars prior to the presentation and tax breaks for the great individuals deserving of such a fine automobile.
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Well said.
 
Running_Man said:
He was former Apple global procurement director. Since this thread was started as a question on opinions on whether to buy or not Tesla has done nothing the S&P 500 is up 21%. So today you have 17 months of additional information and no additional cost to buy or not buy TESLA. In fact for the last 4 years as the Model 3 has been shown to be the best industrial achievement in the history of mankind and the likely savior of our planet and the principal hope that hurricanes will be banished from our planet by our all knowing CEO Elon Musk, the stock has gone nowhere net. The S&P 500 up 55%, this again is a display of the generosity and spirit of Elon Musk in keeping the price of the stock within reach of the average American so they can participate in Tesla and it's global savior program, because we all know the poor rubble of the world will never be able to afford one of his cars, nor should they, but may be able in 10 years to get an UBER ride from an autonomous ride after the banishment of those terrible fossil things, or for $15 an hour they can come to the factory and detail and polish one of Elon's cars prior to the presentation and tax breaks for the great individuals deserving of such a fine automobile.
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Petty and bitter. Tesla and SpaceX employ thousands while pushing the boundaries and acceptance of new technology. They may ultimately fail as a business enterprise, but they are making an amazing run at success despite the petty attacks by Musk haters and short-sellers.
 
For some time I’ve been fascinated by the hatred toward Elon Musk on both left and right. So I asked myself who benefits from trolling him? Shorts on Tesla, it what about Space-X? It’s private, so there aren’t any shorts. While Boeing/United Launch Alliance and even Jeff Bezos might want him to fail, why all the Twitter hatred? The. It dawned on me? What country is sending Americans to the International Space Station for a fee? Coincidentally, what county ran has large petroleum deposits it would like to see in our cars? Oh wait! There is a bear lurking just around the corner...
 
oneill225 said:
Petty and bitter. Tesla and SpaceX employ thousands while pushing the boundaries and acceptance of new technology. They may ultimately fail as a business enterprise, but they are making an amazing run at success despite the petty attacks by Musk haters and short-sellers.
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Why do you think people are Musk haters when they say that Tesla is not a viable business? Or should I say it is not worth the current value that people who are Musk lovers seem to think.... it 'might' be viable...



I do not care if Tesla makes it or not and I do not hate Musk... heck, I think he is a brilliant guy... just that Tesla is not worth more than GM or Ford...



BTW, SpaceX is running a profit from what I read...
 
Texas Proud said:
Why do you think people are Musk haters when they say that Tesla is not a viable business? Or should I say it is not worth the current value that people who are Musk lovers seem to think.... it 'might' be viable...
I do not care if Tesla makes it or not and I do not hate Musk... heck, I think he is a brilliant guy... just that Tesla is not worth more than GM or Ford...
BTW, SpaceX is running a profit from what I read...
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Read the words between the stock price critique.
 
NW-Bound said:
That convertible bond of $230M was inherited from Solar City, hence the awfully high conversion price due to the stock conversion between Solar City and Tesla at the merger.

Tesla's own bond of $920M is convertible at $360, and it is coming up in Feb 2019.

Then, another $1.38B is due in March 2021, also convertible at $360.
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I admired Musk for his accomplishments until he cracked under pressure and started lying. I believe the exodus of executives is because he insisted on presenting future numbers that bear no resemblance to reality.

And I have difficulty forgiving him for loading the debts of Solar City on Tesla. I suppose he believed that it is easier to manage one bankruptcy rather than two.

(I still love the model S)
 
oneill225 said:
Read the words between the stock price critique.
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There are a few who I would say hate Musk... but most are like kcowan and just think he is doing a bad job as CEO... and that affects the stock price and from what it seems the benefit of staying with the company if you are an exec...
 
Texas Proud said:
There are a few who I would say hate Musk... but most are like kcowan and just think he is doing a bad job as CEO... and that affects the stock price and from what it seems the benefit of staying with the company if you are an exec...
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I am willing to give the benefit of the doubt to the motives of those who focus on Musk and his faults. However, when it invokes dripping sarcasm it shows an odd sense of enjoyment in mocking him. At that point, it becomes petty and non-useful, in my opinion.

The post in question did make me look at a few other stocks over the past 17 months, though. In doing so, I could not find a car maker stock that outperformed Tesla and a few actually lost value as an investment. Obviously, the start and stop points on the graphs result from a little cherry picking, but to suggest that Tesla stock is a failure compared with other well-established companies is just not factual.

Despite the headwinds, including Musk's missteps, Tesla is still the leader in a developing large market sector and will continue to be for at least another year or two. If they are able to overcome short-term debt obligations and manufacturing obstacles TSLA stock will see a significant rise over the next six months. This is why investing in TSLA now is a good move.
 
kcowan said:
I admired Musk for his accomplishments until he cracked under pressure and started lying. I believe the exodus of executives is because he insisted on presenting future numbers that bear no resemblance to reality.

And I have difficulty forgiving him for loading the debts of Solar City on Tesla. I suppose he believed that it is easier to manage one bankruptcy rather than two.

(I still love the model S)
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Not being a car enthusiast, I never cared to know that much about Tesla, the company and its cars, nor about Elon Musk. It is all the mention on this forum, then the "juicy" headlines on the Web that got me curious.

Musk has had some accomplishments, and one cannot deny that. But I think he lets it get to his head, and it's becoming arrogance. Nobody can be so smart that he is never wrong. Musk also likes to get into public fights, and call people names.

About technical aspects, I was turned off by Musk's outrageous claim on his car's "autopilot", when it's so far trailing Waymo car's capability. Granted, Musk tries to achieve the same capability without using lidars, and even called lidars a "crutch". But he does not have it yet. The world is still waiting to see him delivering true hand-off self-driving cars using just vision cameras.

Note that Musk has no hand-on experience in AI or specifically autonomous car technology. He simply decreed that no lidar would be needed. His chief technology guy quit, because he disagreed and could not deliver.

Never been long nor short Tesla shares, I still like to see him succeed in bringing down the price of lithium batteries. That has a lot of applications. And if he proves lidars are not needed for a truly autonomous self-driving car, then all the other experts are wrong, and more power to him for solving something nobody else can even imagine. The whole world would profit, myself included.

I am still waiting and watching...
 
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oneill225 said:
I am willing to give the benefit of the doubt to the motives of those who focus on Musk and his faults. However, when it invokes dripping sarcasm it shows an odd sense of enjoyment in mocking him. At that point, it becomes petty and non-useful, in my opinion.

The post in question did make me look at a few other stocks over the past 17 months, though. In doing so, I could not find a car maker stock that outperformed Tesla and a few actually lost value as an investment. Obviously, the start and stop points on the graphs result from a little cherry picking, but to suggest that Tesla stock is a failure compared with other well-established companies is just not factual.

Despite the headwinds, including Musk's missteps, Tesla is still the leader in a developing large market sector and will continue to be for at least another year or two. If they are able to overcome short-term debt obligations and manufacturing obstacles TSLA stock will see a significant rise over the next six months. This is why investing in TSLA now is a good move.
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But you are confusing what is happening with the price of TSLA over a period of time vs the other car companies... what I (and a few others) are saying is that the price today is not worth it... IOW, TSLA should not be valued at $300 ish per share... just because it is does not mean the analysis is wrong...


You then have to ask why is it priced so high compared to any possible future earnings in the next decade it can generate.. and the answer IMO is Musk... not just electric cars... so Musk is a big part of the valuation of TSLA, so what he does actually matters...


BTW, what price do you think it would be getting if he was hit by a bus tomorrow? I would think it would drop 50% or more... but hey, I could be wrong... and I have zero skin in the game so I really do not care...


And I still think the answer is hybrid or plug in hybrid instead of all electric... at least for the time being... but I probably will not get one for many years since I do not need a car any time soon...
 
Hard to say, Steve Jobs had a similar stature but Apple was making lots of money, so there's that.

On the other hand, there's this weed growing company now with similar not supported by earnings valuations and that's certainly not because of the CEO's name.
 
The stock market is weird. No fan of Apple here, but I see that Apple P/E is so low, Buffett could not resist even though he had been no fan of tech companies. Apparently, the market expects that Apple's revenue and profit cannot be sustained.

And the market had overpriced MCI Worldcom, Global Crossing, and numerous other telecoms before, when the Internet was going to be big. And of course the Internet gets really big, but these companies were gone.
 
Totoro said:
Hard to say, Steve Jobs had a similar stature but Apple was making lots of money, so there's that.

On the other hand, there's this weed growing company now with similar not supported by earnings valuations and that's certainly not because of the CEO's name.
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Probably another thread, but from what I have seen the past few days most have been taking a hit (pun intended :LOL:)


Since I have not looked at any of them I cannot say if they hype is overblown or not... most companies lose money in the beginning and then start to make up for it... however, if you invest $50 billion into something you kinda expect to get back more than that as a NPV... so a multiple of that...
 
NW-Bound said:
The stock market is weird. No fan of Apple here, but I see that Apple P/E is so low, Buffett could not resist even though he had been no fan of tech companies. Apparently, the market expects that Apple's revenue and profit cannot be sustained.

And the market had overpriced MCI Worldcom, Global Crossing, and numerous other telecoms before, when the Internet was going to be big. And of course the Internet gets really big, but these companies were gone.
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It's not the low P/E that makes Apple interesting as investor, it's their stock pile of cash. As of 1Q/18 it was $285 BILLION! It's now down to $243 billion, that's a lot of burn :) Considering their market cap, they have a quarter just held in cash.

By comparison, Tesla market cap of $50 Billion and ended 2Q/18 with $2.7 Billion cash and has convertible debt that comes due soon. Quite a difference between the two companies for sure.
 
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One of the things that bothers me is the market for the Model 3...


They talk about ramping up production to 10,000 per week... that would suggest 520,000 units a year... this would make it the best selling car in America!!! I do not think that will happen..


The first half of 2018 the Camry was the best selling at almost 179K units... so if the second half is the same as the first half then it would be 358K.... I do not see the Model 3 selling 45% more cars than the Camry... not at any price where they make money....


The numbers do not make sense... so the valuation does not make sense...


BTW, #10 on the list sold only 76K units in the first half... or less than 3,000 per week... nope, it does not compute...




https://www.motortrend.com/news/here-are-the-10-best-selling-cars-through-the-first-half-of-2018/
 
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