Thoughts on TESLA

[eroscott]

I'm curious to know how the owner of the car is billed for the power they consume at the Tesla charging stations? Do they use a credit card? Or is there some other system to charge the user? What's the cost of the electricity?

Credit card. At least 1/2 - 1/4 the cost of gas. Rate can vary by charging speed / flow (ie. kW). Different states have different laws limiting how Tesla and others do this. (ie. time based, kWh units based, kW power based)

https://www.tesla.com/support/supercharging

 

[aja8888]

Thanks. I see that Illinois? charge rate of $0.24 kW...is that just for that area? Also, that seems pretty high given that we pay less than half that where we live. Is that a local/regional charge per kW?

(looks like you changed it to Kentucky that charges differently.)

I'm not sure how you can say that the power charge is 1/2 - 1/4 the cost of gas though.

EV's aren't paying road use tax (yet) so the comparison is not the same.

 

[eroscott]

Thanks. I see that Illinois? charge rate of $0.24 kW...is that just for that area? Also, that seems pretty high given that we pay less than half that where we live. Is that a local/regional charge per kW?
(looks like you changed it to Kentucky that charges differently.)
I'm not sure how you can say that the power charge is 1/2 - 1/4 the cost of gas though.

EV's aren't paying road use tax (yet) so the comparison is not the same.

a) I provided you link where you can read details and you can pick whatever state you want as well as do the math. My son recently took a multi-state road trip over Thanksgiving which he/SO have done a few times in a couple different cars. This time he did it in his Tesla Model 3 so the cost comparisions are known.

b) Use https://abetterrouteplanner.com/ and pick a TM3 as your car. Put in from/to and see the cost in the planned trip table output! This is a decent estimate.

c) There are also posted above that show what states are charging EVs annually as well. I'm sure the F150/suburban driven think the Prius/Yugo driver should pay more road tax ... you know because they pay so little fuel tax by comparison

 

[Chuckanut]

Yes, I am impressed more by Tesla's supercharging network than their autopilot.

A very good point.


Does anybody know if there is any standardization between chargers and the various EVs now produced and coming down the road. I can't imagine EVs being popular if they are limited to one type of charger technology while on the road.

 

[bobandsherry]

b) Use https://abetterrouteplanner.com/ and pick a TM3 as your car. Put in from/to and see the cost in the planned trip table output! This is a decent estimate.

Interesting tool. I checked route I take for long trip (1200+ miles), with plan leave next week (so using lower temps) and mid-range Model 3. Estimated $57 for charging vehicle, plus would add over 4 hours to my trip, 12 stops. I guess if I could arrange some stops to coincide with planned breaks that would help offset. Cost of fuel for me to drive with my ICE is $105. So estimate of cost for EV being 25-33% of ICE seems to be a bit of a stretch as I would calculate difference to be closer to 50%.

 

[eroscott]

Does anybody know if there is any standardization between chargers and the various EVs now produced and coming down the road. I can't imagine EVs being popular if they are limited to one type of charger technology while on the road.

NOTE that SAE did *not* have a standard in place when Tesla wanted to put larger battery and faster-charging plugs in. Thus Tesla had to do their own engineering.

Two types -
a) fast DC charging
b) slower at home/over-night AC charging. Or mall, or hotel, or some eateries.

a) Fast DC:
a1) Yes, in non-USA CCS 2.
a2) No, In the USA, it is mainly Tesla and CCS 1 currently.

b) Slower AC:
b1) Yes, Slower charging in the USA while at the mall, hotels, at home in your garage all the cars use a standard SAE J1772 charging plug. My Volt and Tesla a few inch long adapter do this in my garage or when visiting son as an example.
b2) Yes, Slower charging in non-USA is for their own standard IEC 62196.

China doing its own thing ... surprise.

Aside: When I've traveled I've also use the charger that comes with Tesla standard 14-50 'RV' plug. I've used an adapter to go to my sister's dryer plug or my brother's electric welder plug. Obviously for emergencies, you can charge at any of the 100s of campgrounds you pass while traveling. They are everywhere!

 

[eroscott]

Interesting tool. I checked route I take for long trip (1200+ miles), with plan leave next week (so using lower temps) and mid-range Model 3. Estimated $57 for charging vehicle, plus would add over 4 hours to my trip, 12 stops.

I guess if I could arrange some stops to coincide with planned breaks that would help offset.

Cost of fuel for me to drive with my ICE is $105. So estimate of cost for EV being 25-33% of ICE seems to be a bit of a stretch as I would calculate difference to be closer to 50%.

You can use Model 3 Mid-Range/MR (~250 mile) OR the Model 3 Long-Range/LR (~300 mile) to get different outcomes for sure! My new 100kWh Model X (~300 mile) is a way different roadtripping machine than my 90 kWh Model X (~250 mile) was. It really surprised me. I skip some Superchargers now. Arriving at lower SOC at next one means I charge faster/longer_at_higher_kW.

That is a 3rd party (non-tesla) tools so not sure it is fully accurate when you get to the lower tiers (i.e. below 60 kW) so take it with a grain of salt and not exact estimates. Also varies quite a bit what states you are in. Also if the temps are warm depending on time of year or state it can change kWh ('MPG') usage

When I travel I eat while charging so, for example, you can charge a lot longer for lunch and fill up more. This could allow you to charge to higher levels and even skip the next SuperCharger. I have done this. Charging at lower SOC (charge %) means you charge faster/longer (less taper) in your next stop. This is all automatic as you travel. I went from IL to WA last summer and experienced this.

 

[NW-Bound]

Below is a Wikipedia article with some technical info about EV charging.

It is interesting to learn that VW, as part of the settlement on the diesel emission scandal, has agreed to spend $2 billion in the next 10 years to build a charging network in the US.

The article mentions that each charging station typically costs more than $200K, but does not say how many stands in such station.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combined_Charging_System.

 

[oneill225]

Interesting tool. I checked route I take for long trip (1200+ miles), with plan leave next week (so using lower temps) and mid-range Model 3. Estimated $57 for charging vehicle, plus would add over 4 hours to my trip, 12 stops. I guess if I could arrange some stops to coincide with planned breaks that would help offset. Cost of fuel for me to drive with my ICE is $105. So estimate of cost for EV being 25-33% of ICE seems to be a bit of a stretch as I would calculate difference to be closer to 50%.

This is about the worst case scenario currently for Tesla and other EV's in the 250 mile range, but range will continue to improve along with the charging tech/time. I don't see this as a limiting factor in the short term because most Americans will still have a gas or hybrid in the driveway along with the Tesla for a few years. They will be available for the occasional cross-country.

For me, 300+ miles (over 4 hours of driving time) is about the right time to get a meal. Recharging during that time is not a great burden or delay. When I get my EV in a year or two, that is the minimum range I will look for. I know you road warriors would drive non-stop if you could.

 

[NW-Bound]

Another thing about charging stations: the total load of the station is limited. So, if a station has 20 stands, and all happen to be occupied, the power to each stand will be reduced so that the local grid will not get overloaded.

That makes sense, as they make provision for each plug to supply as much as 350kW. If you multiply that by 20x or 30x, wowza!

 

[beowulf]

All the discussion about the price of EV recharges is moot until the number of EVs on the road becomes more than minuscule and the reduced use of gas affects federal and state revenues. My monthly home electric bill has about 10 lines of taxes from different levels of government. I doubt both the taxing jurisdictions and the oil companies will stand idly by while their revenue decreases. I do believe that EVs will replace gas cars at some point, but my guess is that is at least 25 to 30 years away. I drive cross country several times a year and I have seen very few hotels that have charging stations. It's coming, but still a long way off, for many of the reasons stated in above posts, not just the cost and availability of charging stations. When a manufacturer come out with a $25K EV with all the bells and whistles that a gas vehicle of the same price has, then we will be a lot closer. This year, both the median and average family US income is about $59K to $60K. Not much room for a $50K to $60K car in those budgets.

 

[eroscott]

Re: my charging tapering/curving comments

It is standard for all electric cars (or lith. batteries for that matter) to slow the kW power flow the closer they are to 100% SOC.

So electric car charging tapers (slows) down (some cars like the GM Bolt are awful and stair-step down pretty quickly).

Imagine the below with other cars leaving and recent cars just plugging in at Supercharger stations. They all won't be pulling 100 kW power. They will all be at different stages of their 10-75% SOC (or 20-85 or whatever) charging patterns.

NOTE that the faster charging (kW flow) is at the lower SOCs so arriving at a Supercharger at 10 or 15% is advantages. Accurate built-in trip planning and energy graphs help. Plus all the electric cars would tell you in advance if there is a potential problem (ie. slow down below 75 MPH to easily make the next SC).

Varies cars tapering/curves here: https://insideevs.com/fast-charging-curves-popular-electric-cars/

A Tesla example:

 

[Lakewood90712]

Cost of fuel

With a $50,000-$100,000 car or suv, EV or ICE, cost of fuel is not a large portion of total cost of ownership. Depreciation, loan interest, insurance etc.

Just depreciation 10 year ownership 150k miles, residual value 30 % ( just a guess ) the only 10 year old Tesla's are the roadster , so the used market for the S , X and 3 is still developing.

I do not think we will see the $35k model 3. If it cannot be sold at a profit, it should not be produced. The big 5 automakers have tried the loss leader game for decades and finally abandoned it.

 

[eroscott]

This year, both the median and average family US income is about $59K to $60K. Not much room for a $50K to $60K car in those budgets.

Now that everyone is starting to build/planning for 10 models by 2025 you'll see the price drop faster and faster. A big part will be the battery price dropping.
Lot of families didn't/couldn't afford flat screen TVs or smart phones when they first came out. Early adopters bring these things all about. Proven time and time again.

...I drive cross country several times a year and I have seen very few hotels that have charging stations....

FYI, charging at hotels is not necessary when roadtripping. I often just stayed at a hotel in a town that also had a Supercharger.

When I did a 5500 mile roadtrip last summer I simply charged to 90% at a Supercharger while I at dinner before or after I checked into the hotel. Others may charge while eating breakfast in the morning. I stayed at one hotel with destination chargers and didn't even use them because I had already supercharged. Simple.

When charged at the hotel while on my counter-clockwise trip around Lake Michigan it was at the WI/MI border that has a Supercharger permitted but not built. In this case, I absolutely needed the destination charger at the hotel but wouldn't be if I did the trip again this year. I charged to 90% overnight and then before I jumped in the shower and then to breakfast, I started the charger up via my phone to get some extra 'fuel'.

 

[ERD50]

Originally Posted by ERD50 And of course, if you look by brand, rather than model, Tesla comes up at #17 in the US. Probably more revealing, since Tesla has so few models, and most sales are in a single model. But I wouldn't expect a fan to post both to provide some objectivity.

U.S. Auto Sales Brand Rankings – November 2018 YTD | GCBC

Tesla is just now entering the mainstream market, with only one somewhat affordable model, so it’s a little early to predict their demise.

On your incomplete list, I’m surprised as a brand Tesla is just behind Audi and already outselling Chrysler, Acura, Infinity, Mitsubishi, Lincoln, Land Rover, Volvo, Porsche, Mini, Jaguar, Alfa Romeo, Fiat, Genesis and Smart - all owned by mature, experienced automakers.

Did you think I was predicting their demise? Where did I infer that? I wasn't/didn't. As I said, just another view of sales, the fans only show the breakdowns that they like.

I have no idea if Tesla will be successful long term. I would not bet for or against them, and I don't, other than the exposure in my index funds.

-ERD50

 

[aja8888]

It will be interesting to see Tesla sales as their backlog of Model 3 units ends and the Federal tax credit diminishes. I think the price of the Model 3 needs to get to a point where the middle class can afford it and interest rates need to remain low to support loans.

Also, from reading several auto blogs, it's clear that fewer and fewer people are buying new cars with these stratospheric prices (all makes). Even truck sales are getting soft. Here in Houston, many dealers still have hundreds of unsold 2018 trucks in stock.

 

[oneill225]

All the discussion about the price of EV recharges is moot until the number of EVs on the road becomes more than minuscule and the reduced use of gas affects federal and state revenues. My monthly home electric bill has about 10 lines of taxes from different levels of government. I doubt both the taxing jurisdictions and the oil companies will stand idly by while their revenue decreases. I do believe that EVs will replace gas cars at some point, but my guess is that is at least 25 to 30 years away. I drive cross country several times a year and I have seen very few hotels that have charging stations. It's coming, but still a long way off, for many of the reasons stated in above posts, not just the cost and availability of charging stations. When a manufacturer come out with a $25K EV with all the bells and whistles that a gas vehicle of the same price has, then we will be a lot closer. This year, both the median and average family US income is about $59K to $60K. Not much room for a $50K to $60K car in those budgets.

I can't disagree with most of what you say, but I think you underestimate how quickly Americans will adopt a clearly superior technology. We should see a number of $30,000-$40,000 EVs (with bells and whistles) emerge over the next two years. A non-electric Toyota Camry currently costs $30,000 with just a couple of options, so the pricing will be here soon and get better over time.

Also, an EV does not need to match a similar looking ICE vehicle in price to be competitive. EVs offer a better experience (faster, quieter, better mileage, better handling, less maintenance, no gas station stops). So, a similarly equipped $30,000 EV is likely to be seen as a better value than a $30,000 ICE vehicle.

Regarding taxes, the government will start to extract their pound of flesh as soon as they can figure out a way that doesn't cause a revolt. The new trend in WA State is to tax the crap out of you when you register your car each year. It is based on the value of your car and amounts to hundreds of dollars every year. They are also testing tax by miles driven. In the end, I doubt the government will tax in a way that deters or "over taxes" EVs as compared to a gas tax. That would be counter to the push to reduce carbon emissions.

The oil companies really will have no say in any of this. Natural gas will be needed to fuel the new electric plants, but we will use less and less gasoline every year in this country.

 

[NW-Bound]

I don't think EVs will catch on that fast, but if it does I will not complain.

Why. I may get an EV to tool around town myself. And the EVs will free up more cheap gasoline for me to put in my gas-guzzling motorhome to go on long treks as I have done.

It will be a long time before anyone talks about building an affordable electric motorhome. And then, it will be even longer before I can find superduper charging stations in the boondocks, Alaska or the Yukon. Many towns there have to generate their own electricity with diesel generators. I don't think I can suck a megawatt out of their generators for charging.

... EVs offer a better experience (faster, quieter, better mileage, better handling, less maintenance, no gas station stops)...

No gas station stop, but a charging stop is worse.

 

[oneill225]

I don't think EVs will catch on that fast, but if it does I will not complain.
It will be a long time before anyone talks about building an affordable electric motorhome. And then, it will be even longer before I can find superduper charging stations in the boondocks, Alaska or the Yukon. Many towns there have to generate their own electricity with diesel generators. I don't think I can suck a megawatt out of their generators for charging.

RVs and aircraft will be the last to switch. Tough to even venture a guess until we start seeing all-electric semi's. Once again, Tesla may be leading the charge.

 

[NW-Bound]

Airplanes? A 747 carries 60,000 gallons of fuel. That's more than 2x my reasonably large residential swimming pool. There is yet no battery imaginable by humans that can store that energy (and fit in an airplane).

PS. By the way, people including Tesla are designing electric semis. The battery weighs something like 12,000 lbs, and stores 1MWh. Price is estimated around $300K, if I remember right.

 

[Midpack]

There have been several recent studies suggesting technology adoption has taken place faster and faster over the years. Whether that translates to EVs or not remains to be seen. On the one hand, a car is a big ticket item with an longer life than most consumer electronics, so they may take a while. But if someone comes out with an EV that captures the imagination of most people at a price many can handle, the transition could happen faster than any of us expect. Infrastructure to support EVs will follow when/if they reach some critical mass.

 

[MRG]

Airplanes? A 747 carries 60,000 gallons of fuel. That's more than 2x my reasonably large residential swimming pool. There is yet no battery imaginable by humans that can store that energy (and fit in an airplane).

Today.

I remember, during my career ,when a terabyte of data required a 100,000 sq. ft. data center to support it. I carry a TB in my pocket today.

I'm not suggesting it's easy or even within our knowledge today, but in 25 years? Who knows? A buddy who has RP, had one optic nerve severed in the 1960s. Surely they could reattach it after they cured RP. Neither has happened. Who knew?

 

[oneill225]

Airplanes? A 747 carries 60,000 gallons of fuel. That's more than 2x my reasonably large residential swimming pool. There is yet no battery imaginable by humans that can store that energy (and fit in an airplane).
PS. By the way, people including Tesla are designing electric semis. The battery weighs something like 12,000 lbs, and stores 1MWh. Price is estimated around $300K, if I remember right.

I understand; flying will require a big leap in battery tech. Semi trucks are a little closer:

https://insideevs.com/red-tesla-semi-spotted/

 

[NW-Bound]

Just for fun, I computed the energy in 60,000 gallons of jet fuel. It requires a lithium battery of more than 25 million pounds in weight.

We will need some kind of battery not yet invented by men.

 

[bobandsherry]

This is about the worst case scenario currently for Tesla and other EV's in the 250 mile range, but range will continue to improve along with the charging tech/time. I don't see this as a limiting factor in the short term because most Americans will still have a gas or hybrid in the driveway along with the Tesla for a few years. They will be available for the occasional cross-country.



For me, 300+ miles (over 4 hours of driving time) is about the right time to get a meal. Recharging during that time is not a great burden or delay. When I get my EV in a year or two, that is the minimum range I will look for. I know you road warriors would drive non-stop if you could.

Honestly, we stop for some fast food and get back on the road. Stops only as necessary to answer mother nature's call. So except for a stop for the night we just keep on keepin' on.