Treasury Bills, Notes, and Bonds Discussion 2024+

[joesxm3]

Audrey,

Your sharing on this thread has been very helpful. I probably would not have started with T-Bills without this thread.

It was also nice to see your picture next to the cyber truck in the other thread.

 

[aja8888]

T Bills are starting to look good again now that SWVXX (SchwaB MM fund) is yielding 5.04%.

 

[PaunchyPirate]

I’m buying into a one year t-bill in Tuesday’s auction. I’m hoping for a slight uptick in rate. But will be happy with recent rates as well.

 

[audreyh1]

Audrey, thanks for taking your valuable time to post these results every week.
Much appreciated..

You’re welcome. It’s quite easy and fast to do as long as I remember.

 

[audreyh1]

Audrey,

Your sharing on this thread has been very helpful. I probably would not have started with T-Bills without this thread.

It was also nice to see your picture next to the cyber truck in the other thread.

Ha ha first and maybe only for the ER forum.

 

[audreyh1]

I’m buying into a one year t-bill in Tuesday’s auction. I’m hoping for a slight uptick in rate. But will be happy with recent rates as well.

It’s seems pretty entrenched above 5% over the past week so you might get lucky .

 

[jldavid47]

T Bills are starting to look good again now that SWVXX (SchwaB MM fund) is yielding 5.04%.

That is incorrect. SWVXX is still yielding 5.19%:

https://www.schwabassetmanagement.com/products/swvxx

 

[audreyh1]

I’m buying into a one year t-bill in Tuesday’s auction. I’m hoping for a slight uptick in rate. But will be happy with recent rates as well.

I decided to join you for tomorrow’s 52 week auction.

 

[aja8888]

That is incorrect. SWVXX is still yielding 5.19%:

https://www.schwabassetmanagement.com/products/swvxx

Hmmm, I wonder what I was looking at when I saw the lower yield? Thanks!

 

[savory]

The article linked below did not feel like a financial article simply written to boost advertising. It addresses the Canadian government approach for changing their bond purchasing/selling approach. The articles message is Canada is taking some risks.

“ The Government of Canada (GoC) has begun buying billions in Canada Mortgage Bonds (CMBs), in a last ditch effort to stimulate more borrowing. The planned purchases are equivalent to three-quarters of the cash the Federal government is forecast to borrow this year. ”. Here is the link to the article https://betterdwelling.com/canada-is-spending-75-of-its-forecast-deficit-to-prop-up-mortgages/

I am holding some Canadian bank bonds, most maturing within 5 years. I am wondering if this change in strategy by the Canadian government should raise our concerns about holding these bonds/buying more or is it mostly a non-issue for current/future Canadian bank bond holders?

 

[pb4uski]

Nah, $30b Cdn a year isn't enough in to be a concern to me, but I agree that what they are doing doesn't make a lot of sense.

 

[audreyh1]

I’m buying into a one year t-bill in Tuesday’s auction. I’m hoping for a slight uptick in rate. But will be happy with recent rates as well.

It’s seems pretty entrenched above 5% over the past week so you might get lucky .

The way this was trading on secondary the few days before and day of auction I was hoping for more like 5.08-5.1%, but still I’ll take 5.062%, much better compared to 4 and 8 weeks ago. My other 52-week bought last October I managed to catch 5.488% but that’s already 5 months old.

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

I decided to join you for tomorrow’s 52 week auction.

As did I, first time in a few months.

 

[audreyh1]

This week's T-Bill auction results:

Bills	CMB	CUSIP	Issue Date	High Rate	Investment Rate	Price per $100
4-Week	No	912797JP3	03/26/2024	5.270%	5.365%	$99.590111
8-Week	No	912797JX6	03/26/2024	5.270%	5.387%	$99.180222
13-Week	No	912796ZW2	03/21/2024	5.245%	5.389%	$98.674181
17-Week	No	912797KQ9	03/26/2024	5.215%	5.380%	$98.276153
26-Week	No	912797KL0	03/21/2024	5.130%	5.340%	$97.406500
52-Week	No	912797KJ5	03/21/2024	4.810%	5.062%	$95.136556

The 52-week T-bill had crept above 5% for a brief period over the past week or so in secondary trading, but already dropped below again as of today. It only auctions every 4 weeks.

 

[audreyh1]

This weeks T-bill auction results:

Bills	CMB	CUSIP	Issue Date	High Rate	Investment Rate	Price per $100
4-Week	No	912797JV0	04/09/2024	5.265%	5.360%	$99.590500
8-Week	No	912797JZ1	04/09/2024	5.260%	5.377%	$99.181778
13-Week	No	912796Y52	04/04/2024	5.230%	5.374%	$98.663444
17-Week	No	912797KW6	04/09/2024	5.200%	5.364%	$98.281111
26-Week	No	912797GW1	04/04/2024	5.125%	5.334%	$97.409028

Treasury Notes for March (plus April 1 since I forgot last week)

Notes	Reopening	CUSIP	Issue Date	High Yield	Interest Rate	Price per $100
2-Year	No	91282CKH3	04/01/2024	4.595%	4.500%	$99.820388
3-Year	No	91282CKE0	03/15/2024	4.256%	4.250%	$99.983268
5-Year	No	91282CKG5	04/01/2024	4.235%	4.125%	$99.508988
7-Year	No	91282CKF7	04/01/2024	4.185%	4.125%	$99.639057
10-Year	Yes	91282CJZ5	03/15/2024	4.166%	4.000%	$98.656761

Oops - looks like I forgot last week. Things have been pretty hectic recently. I've got some travel coming up off and on so my postings will probably continue to be sporadic.

In the meantime you can check for auction results here. I usually look Thursday afternoon or Friday as all the auctions for the week complete by then.
https://www.treasurydirect.gov/auctions/upcoming/ then click on the "Auction Results" tab.

 

[jldavid47]

The 52-week auction is next week and this afternoon the yields on treasuries maturing in one year is around 5.2%. Auction yields for the 52 week T-bill should end up in that neighborhood unless something changes between now and Tuesday. Very tempting even if it comes in a few basis points lower.

 

[audreyh1]

The 52-week rate really popped today!

 

[jldavid47]

The 52-week rate really popped today!

Rates popped across the board. Even the 2-year came within a few basis points of hitting 5%.

 

[Sojourner]

Trying to use Vanguard's treasury search tool, but no matter what I put in it always says "No offerings match your search criteria". What am I doing wrong here? I've tried entering a variety of values in the different fields, all to no avail. In the particular search shown below, I'm looking for 18mo treasuries with yields around 5.0%.

 

[jollystomper]

Trying to use Vanguard's treasury search tool, but no matter what I put in it always says "No offerings match your search criteria". What am I doing wrong here? I've tried entering a variety of values in the different fields, all to no avail. In the particular search shown below, I'm looking for 18mo treasuries with yields around 5.0%.

Try it without the quantity entries? I tested the search without it and came up with 8 items. You can always see the price for the minimum quantity desired under each retrieved result.

 

[Sojourner]

Try it without the quantity entries? I tested the search without it and came up with 8 items. You can always see the price for the minimum quantity desired under each retrieved result.

Yep, that did the trick. Thanks!

 

[disneysteve]

Trying to use Vanguard's treasury search tool, but no matter what I put in it always says "No offerings match your search criteria". What am I doing wrong here? I've tried entering a variety of values in the different fields, all to no avail. In the particular search shown below, I'm looking for 18mo treasuries with yields around 5.0%.

Just use the quick search function and select the 2 years tab. I find that much easier.

 

[Chuckanut]

Today's 5 year TIPS came in at a Real Yield of 2.242%. The coupon was 2.125%. The breakeven inflation rate for fixed rate 5 year Treasuries is 2.44%.

While not as high as last October, the real yield is still the 2nd highest since 2008. I like a real yield above 2%. As one who thinks the glide path to 2% inflation will be longer and rougher than expected, the breakeven rate seems good. Time will tell.

TipsWatch has these details and more.

 

[audreyh1]

This week’s T-bill auction results:

Bills	CMB	CUSIP	Issue Date	High Rate	Investment Rate	Price per $100
4-Week	No	912797JX6	04/23/2024	5.280%	5.375%	$99.589333
8-Week	No	912797KF3	04/23/2024	5.275%	5.393%	$99.179444
13-Week	No	912797JS7	04/18/2024	5.250%	5.395%	$98.672917
17-Week	No	912797KY2	04/23/2024	5.240%	5.406%	$98.267889
26-Week	No	912797KU0	04/18/2024	5.155%	5.366%	$97.393861
52-Week	No	912797KS5	04/18/2024	4.915%	5.177%	$95.030389

Rates moved up this week and the 52-week really popped.

 

[Trailwalker]

Today's 5 year TIPS came in at a Real Yield of 2.242%. The coupon was 2.125%. The breakeven inflation rate for fixed rate 5 year Treasuries is 2.44%.

While not as high as last October, the real yield is still the 2nd highest since 2008. I like a real yield above 2%. As one who thinks the glide path to 2% inflation will be longer and rougher than expected, the breakeven rates seems good. Time will tell.

TipsWatch has these details and more.

I agree that the real yield is very attractive. TIPs are already a heavy component in our 4-9year investment strategy so I'm not a buyer at this time. If the fixed yield stays high, I may add another step to our ladder next fall.