Unrealistic Expectations

[daylatedollarshort]

I read the article. Lots of correlation presented as cause and effect interlaced with unsupported assumptions likely tied to the ideology of the authors.

Greater income differential in the US is not in and of itself proof that it is more difficult for one to achieve upward income mobility. Bill Gates’ billions don’t prevent anyone from getting a raise.

It is not just one statistic from one article that matters. Public policy and perceptions are shaped best by objective measures and hard data, not personal anecdotes. I've not seen any studies lately that the U.S. is ranked particularly high for any social mobility factors, but if you have any research based articles I would be interested in reading those.

In the graph in the link below we are ranked 27th on social mobility. Not the worst by far but far from the best -
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/ranked-the-social-mobility-of-82-countries/

"Today’s chart pulls data from the inaugural Global Social Mobility report produced by the World Economic Forum. The report ranks 82 countries according to their performance across five key pillars: healthcare, education, technology access, working conditions, and social protection."

 

[Montecfo]

It is not just one statistic from one article that matters. Public policy and perceptions are shaped best by objective measures and hard data, not personal anecdotes. I've not seen any studies lately that the U.S. is ranked particularly high for any social mobility factors, but if you have any research based articles I would be interested in reading those.

In the graph in the link below we are ranked 27th on social mobility. Not the worst by far but far from the best -
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/ranked-the-social-mobility-of-82-countries/

"Today’s chart pulls data from the inaugural Global Social Mobility report produced by the World Economic Forum. The report ranks 82 countries according to their performance across five key pillars: healthcare, education, technology access, working conditions, and social protection."

Well, I think we can agree on the importance of data.

I could comment on your chosen data sources, but rather than doing so here perhaps I could suggest that comparative economic mobility worldwide is a different topic than the one set forth herein.

So perhaps it is better suited for another thread since it in fact does not address the question of whether it is easier or harder to make it in the US than it used to be and whether young folks' expectations of success are realistic?

 

[daylatedollarshort]

So perhaps it is better suited for another thread since it in fact does not address the question of whether it is easier or harder to make it in the US than it used to be and whether young folks' expectations of success are realistic?

The point before was that the American Dream may be easier to achieve these days outside the U.S. But if you want a paper focused only on the U.S. here is one showing the decline in income mobility in the U.S. over time - https://inequality.stanford.edu/news-events/center-news/fading-american-dream

The OP wrote that " People are saying you can't build financial security as easily as past generations. Whether that's the 1950s, 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, get it?" Yes, if by people you mean people like researchers from the Stanford Center on Poverty and Inequality, yes, that is what they are saying.

 

[jimbee]

Lots of correlation presented as cause and effect interlaced with unsupported assumptions likely tied to the ideology of the authors.

Kinda like a lot of the responses in this thread...

 

[dmpi]

The world is so different from forty years ago I'm not sure any comparison isn't comparing oranges to apples. The truth is I couldn't live like I did when I was a kid. Six people in a three bedroom 1500 sf house with one bathroom, one TV and one car. People didn't make much then but they didn't need much. Oh and that much touted factory job, my Dad had one and he complained about it every single day. Yes the kids are a bit spoiled but I'm just thankful for everything I have today.

 

[llolly]

Haven't read through yet, but one big difference for young people I see is when I was young, I knew a number of people who put themselves through a good state college merely working at a fast food joint -- can't really imagine that now.

 

[Popeye]

It is not just one statistic from one article that matters. Public policy and perceptions are shaped best by objective measures and hard data, not personal anecdotes. I've not seen any studies lately that the U.S. is ranked particularly high for any social mobility factors, but if you have any research based articles I would be interested in reading those.

In the graph in the link below we are ranked 27th on social mobility. Not the worst by far but far from the best -
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/ranked-the-social-mobility-of-82-countries/

"Today’s chart pulls data from the inaugural Global Social Mobility report produced by the World Economic Forum. The report ranks 82 countries according to their performance across five key pillars: healthcare, education, technology access, working conditions, and social protection."

It’s not necessarily the data I have a problem with, it’s the conclusions they draw from it. The data can be true but it doesn’t prove what they are saying it proves.

And I don’t assume that this Social Mobility Score isn’t composed of lots of subjectively chosen and subjectively weighted factors. I’ll give that site a perusal and see what it looks like. I think I’ve looked through something like this before. When I see some of the countries ranked above the US, I become skeptical.

 

[Finance Dave]

I see it all the time, in our tenants!

Had one tenant move in and said she "HAD TO HAVE" a water softener...because her hair did not look good with unsoftened water. She wanted to rent one and asked if that was ok. I told her we'd install one and raise her rent by less than it would cost to rent one, and she said ok. We installed one a week later.

Then, two months later, she didn't pay her rent. She claimed she didn't have enough money. Yet she was going to the tanning booth, had her nails done, was always fully made up, and had soft hair! I offered her to move into one of our lower rent units, but she looked at the place and said it wasn't nice enough for her.

In the end, we evicted her. She felt like she should have all these things regardless of whether she could pay for them.

 

[Popeye]

Well, I think we can agree on the importance of data.

I could comment on your chosen data sources, but rather than doing so here perhaps I could suggest that comparative economic mobility worldwide is a different topic than the one set forth herein.

So perhaps it is better suited for another thread since it in fact does not address the question of whether it is easier or harder to make it in the US than it used to be and whether young folks' expectations of success are realistic?

Lol, probably true. Sometimes it feels like these threads are circling a black hole and must be pulled in eventually. Personally when I see one my first question is , “How long before someone brings up the L word?” ( The L word being Luck.)

 

[daylatedollarshort]

The difference that I see is that when I graduated from high school you could get a good paying job with no skills at a factory. This allowed people to buy homes and have families. Now many non skilled people work for minimum wage. It’s a huge difference.

I see that, too, from growing up in a factory town that at one time had a strong middle class. Most of those jobs are gone now. Middle skill jobs have been declining in the U.S. since the 1990s, and are being replaced with low and high skill jobs. If you live in an urban area like I do now, with a backbone of high skill jobs, maybe it is harder to relate to what is going on in cities with declining economies.

 

[Perryinva]

kinda like a lot of the responses in this thread...

ding ding ding!!

 

[MrsHaloFIRE]

Terry, I think this is correct. My friends father was in the navy, and then worked in the shipping department of some company.
He managed to buy a home in the suburbs, have his wife stay home, and raise four kids with basically a highschool education.
That isn't happening anymore.
JP

I think I see it everyday. HS education to join the military. Maybe the wife works until the kids start arriving. STack some kids. Military offers to pay for a degree bc now you kind of need one to be promoted even for enlisted. Get your 4 year degree. Get promoted. Get out with medical and a small pension. Go back and work maybe in the same base perhaps in the same office doing same/similar job now drawing GS civilian pay, getting a match in your TSP (401k equiv), still got your retiree medical care, maybe even some veterans benefits in cash and care if your body got torn up. Buy a house in the outskirts near a good school at retirement, This happens all over, everyday. SO yes it is possible. THis is not fairy tale land.

I also worked alongside folks that did maybe just one contract length in the military, then they use their education beenfits, get picked up in a GS job maybe somewhere theyve always wanted to live, maybe somewhere near their hoemtown, whatever. Its very possible. But you cant be a piece of sh*t and sit around and complain how it doesnt come to you. And no you and the wife prob cant drive nice cars prob until the kids move out.

Victims need not apply.

 

[ivinsfan]

The world is so different from forty years ago I'm not sure any comparison isn't comparing oranges to apples. The truth is I couldn't live like I did when I was a kid. Six people in a three bedroom 1500 sf house with one bathroom, one TV and one car. People didn't make much then but they didn't need much. Oh and that much touted factory job, my Dad had one and he complained about it every single day. Yes the kids are a bit spoiled but I'm just thankful for everything I have today.

You certainly could live like that, but in fact you don't want to. Nothing wrong with not wanting to.

 

[gayl]

The world is so different from forty years ago I'm not sure any comparison isn't comparing oranges to apples. The truth is I couldn't live like I did when I was a kid. Six people in a three bedroom 1500 sf house with one bathroom, one TV and one car. ...... a bit spoiled but I'm just thankful for everything I have today.

It's not that different for most people. 6 people in a 3 bedroom house = mom & dad sleep together + 2 kids to each room. Normal. 1500 is average size house. Those 1 BR houses still exist. Who really needs electronics in each room? I have 1 TV. Normal for many of us

FWIW: My house was built in 1979, both kids have houses built in early 60s (3bd 1200 sq ft). DD had 5 in her 3 BR house & has 1 car. Normal

 

[daylatedollarshort]

I don't know about you but I didn't start from an easy spot. If I could climb out of homelessness, work 1.5 jobs while desperately trying to not lose my home in the 1990s, have 2 kids own their own home in my HCOL area -- why can't others?

From your other posts it seems like you have a pension with a lump sum value of at least $1M, a home that has appreciated over $500K plus your adult kids / grandkids have been helped by the bank of mom. I'm glad things worked out for you and your adult kids, but most jobs these days do not have pensions and houses bought at current prices in the Bay Area are often over $1M. Could your kids buy houses today at market prices and would you be as financially secure as you are now if you didn't have a job with a pension?

 

[Music Lover]

There's no reason to buy in the Bay area if you can't afford it.

 

[daylatedollarshort]

There's no reason to buy in the Bay area if you can't afford it.

If you look at section I quoted, part of the OPs point was she has 2 kids in houses in a HCOL area, which I assume means the Bay Area since that is where she lives and her kids seem to live nearby. So when they bought houses are relevant to her point, because prices were much lower just 10 years ago, when the area wasn't as HCOL. There were really nice houses out in places like Brentwood for $200K back then.

 

[Montecfo]

The point before was that the American Dream may be easier to achieve these days outside the U.S. But if you want a paper focused only on the U.S. here is one showing the decline in income mobility in the U.S. over time - https://inequality.stanford.edu/news-events/center-news/fading-american-dream

The OP wrote that " People are saying you can't build financial security as easily as past generations. Whether that's the 1950s, 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, get it?" Yes, if by people you mean people like researchers from the Stanford Center on Poverty and Inequality, yes, that is what they are saying.

Well, I do not think the data cited show that. Even though kids on average are earning more than their parents (though perhaps not as much as prior generations) those parents are more likely college educated and have been employed in relatively higher wage fields. So kids are still earning more but they do not have to earn more than parents to be able to achieve financial security.

As wages rise in general with US moving from agrarian to mechanized labor to knowledge workers, the bar gets higher. It is not as easy for my generations kids to out-earn us. My parents were blue collar and clerical. Their parents were farmers and miners.

But kids have tremendous opportunities with a primary difference maker being drive and passion for doing so, and developing the ability to see themselves as the main difference maker in their personal story.

As we have gotten more wealthy our kids have gotten more self satisfied, and we have become less of a nation of "strivers" and, honestly more entitled and less motivated. I think a large piece of that is because of wealth.

Which brings us back to the OP. I agree that our kids can lack the drive of prior generations for a variety of reasons and expect things to come too easily. And we need to continue to combat that.

 

[daylatedollarshort]

Well, I do not think the data cited show that. Even though kids on average are earning more than their parents (though less than prior generations) those parents are more likely college educated and have been employed in relatively higher wage fields. So kids are still earning more but they do not have to earn more than parents to be able to achieve financial security.

Yet those social mobility scores in many other developed countries remain higher than the U.S. But if you want to rely on your own opinions and beliefs instead of using actual metrics and the analysis of researchers from top universities who do these kinds of studies for a living, that is certainly your choice.

 

[ExFlyBoy5]

Terry, I think this is correct. My friends father was in the navy, and then worked in the shipping department of some company.
He managed to buy a home in the suburbs, have his wife stay home, and raise four kids with basically a highschool education.
That isn't happening anymore.
JP

Uh, sure it is. There are thousands of folks that join the military and then go on to great careers...all with "only" a HS diploma.

 

[Montecfo]

Yet those social mobility scores in many other developed countries remain higher than the U.S. But if you want to rely on your own opinions and beliefs instead of using actual metrics and the analysis of researchers from top universities who do these kinds of studies for a living, that is certainly your choice.

My conclusions came directly from the data presented.

Now you wish to change topics back to US compared to other nations. Ok, we can do that.

The first article you linked compared the US unfavorable to Denmark, a very small, non-diverse country which accepts few immigrants and with the population of Colorado. But Colorado is more productive and generates higher GDP. A more apt comparison would be to Europe overall. Do you notice how these tiny non-diverse European countries also compare favorably to the larger economies in Europe?

It is apples and oranges.

Having said that, in my opinion the US needs to address educational disparities and the growing problem of illigitimacy both of which limit opportunities.

 

[ivinsfan]

Yet those social mobility scores in many other developed countries remain higher than the U.S. But if you want to rely on your own opinions and beliefs instead of using actual metrics and the analysis of researchers from top universities who do these kinds of studies for a living, that is certainly your choice.

DLDS I clicked through and read your
link,but I'd be hard pressed not to realize the people doing the research and writing are a bit biased toward some outcomes..the title of the think tank that wrote it is the first clue.

 

[daylatedollarshort]

DLDS I clicked through and read your
link,but I'd be hard pressed not to realize the people doing the research and writing are a bit biased toward some outcomes..the title of the think tank that wrote it is the first clue.

I've posted many research links between this and a related thread on a similar topic. I've never seen anyone posting a link supporting the ongoing sentiments here that poverty and lack of success are mainly due to laziness and other moral failings. Many of the replies have been along the lines of all the researchers are biased, the places their results are published are all biased and I disagree with their analysis so I don't think they are right, even though I don't have any actual research to support my own opinions.

Well, okay then. Not much more I can add to what I've already posted.

 

[ivinsfan]

I've posted many research links between this and a related thread on a similar topic. I've never seen anyone posting a link supporting the ongoing sentiments here that poverty and lack of success are mainly due to laziness and other moral failings. Many of the replies have been along the lines of all the researchers are biased, the places their results are published are all biased and I disagree with their analysis so I don't think they are right, even though I don't have any actual research to support my own opinions.

Well, okay then. Not much more I can add to what I've already posted.

The difference here is I'm not seeing people here say the laziness and moral failings are the main reason people are in poverty. The truth is it's way more complicated and multi-faceted then that.



The fact the gap is widening should tell us we need to do something different.

 

[Music Lover]

The fact the gap is widening should tell us we need to do something different.

I disagree. By most measures, when the people on the top earn more, everyone benefits including those at the bottom.