Agreed. However, Raddr's calculated SWR with this portfolio is 7.1% vs. 4-5% for the "traditional" portfolios. So this portfolio should be safer, no? You can take more out each year without the expectation of going broke. What's not to like?
Garbage in, garbage out (GIGO).
Most of the historical data in the more rigorous retirement calculators is eight decades, and FIRECalc happens to go back 135 years. Yet the [-]explosives[/-] commodities & small-cap value data you're playing with has a much shorter history. Note that Raddr is using phrases like "The 5-year correlation coefficients (1957-2003)", and "First the bad news. I was able to find data for the CRB index (presumably spot prices, equal weighted?) dating back to the 1920's. Commodities helped little, if any, in the survival of 1929-era portfolios.", and "I think that this is a better reference period than the 1920's since we were on the gold standard then which favored deflation when the economy went bad. On the other hand, since we went to fiat currency in 1971 the economy has been fighting inflation." He also mentions that there's no real ScV index before 1993 but that he put something together from Fama & French's data.
We spend a lot of time arguing on this board about trying to use 135 years of FIRECalc historical data for 50-year retirements and whether a partial data run (less than a 50-year period) is valid. Monte Carlo is popular for its ability to synthesize more runs because it mixes the data up, but none of the calculators will predict future correlations.
It's possible that we have no idea what's going on because we don't have enough data. It's quite possible that going off the gold standard and using fiat currency will keep on doing great things for commodities. It's almost certain that the correlation between commodities and small-cap value will change in the future (as has the correlation between international & domestic stocks).
I'll point out that my ER is largely funded by a govt COLA'd annuity and that our high-equity ER portfolio has one of the board's highest tolerances for volatility. But, hey, you're young and you'll have plenty of working years to recover from GIGO.
You don't have to debate the subject with us. Send Raddr a PM on his board or post over there, where there are a number of guys who have studied this far more intensely than most of this board's posters.