Will We Get A Santa Rally in 2022?

[NW-Bound]

I prefer thin-cut porkchop. Easier to grill.

 

[audreyh1]

I found these heritage breed pork chops at HEB this week and plan to smoke them on New Year’s Day. Thick is good for smoking. Will then do a quick sear after smoking.

 

[MarieIG]

For some reason, I am thinking of adding pork chops to DH's shopping list. No idea why.

 

[joesxm3]

Is it just short covering? What recently went down the most bounced up the most. Stocks that have been doing well YTD go up the least.

We will not know until later when the smoke clears. The enigmatic stock market is never boring to me.

But for now, because nothing fundamental has changed, I take advantage of the up market to sell some OTM call contracts to get $1319 in cash. I like cash, and my stocks help me get that cash.


PS. I am in the stock market for the long term. Have been doing it for decades. But when the short-term crazy movements give me a chance to make some extra, I take it.

I sold a $100 TSLA put for a little over $300 on Wednesday when TSLA was $112. I bought it back today for $100 when TSLA was $122.

I almost sold a call contract, but chickened out as TSLA had pulled back to $120 by the time it occurred to me. I could have sold a one day $125 call contract for $100 or a one week for $400. Nice premium but newbie me got scared.

 

[folivier]

Haven't bought a pork chop in years. Prefer to buy a whole pork loin when on sale then cut my own chops. Well I lied, I like fried pork chops from the local grocery deli whenever they have them.

 

[NW-Bound]

I almost sold a call contract, but chickened out as TSLA had pulled back to $120 by the time it occurred to me. I could have sold a one day $125 call contract for $100 or a one week for $400. Nice premium but newbie me got scared.

Is it a naked call? This, I never do.

About the option expiry, I always go for shorter contracts. My chance of making $100 in a week on a contract is higher than making $400/contract in a month, with the market being as crazy as it is now. I like to make smaller bets, but many of them. That's how I make $200K-$300K each year on option premium.

Again, I still lose money this year, but this helps me lose less than if I did not sell options. And as always, as Koolau says, YMMV.

 

[Born2Fish]

I think the market will reverse after lunch and have a strong move up!!

(But I'm not betting on it!!)

 

[joesxm3]

Is it a naked call? This, I never do.

About the option expiry, I always go for shorter contracts. My chance of making $100 in a week on a contract is higher than making $400/contract in a month, with the market being as crazy as it is now. I like to make smaller bets, but many of them. That's how I make $200K-$300K each year on option premium.

Again, I still lose money this year, but this helps me lose less than if I did not sell options. And as always, as Koolau says, YMMV.

No, covered call. My account has training wheels. They don't let me do naked calls or use margin to secure selling puts.

I had a decent or too large TSLA position, but I could not help adding 15% when it hit $125 and some more at $112. I was gambling that I could reduce my position if there was a short term bounce.

My put contract was only until 1/6 I think, but figured 2/3 in hand better than waiting since I really did not want to buy another 100 shares.

 

[GravitySucks]

Did someone say pork chop?

Those look great. I’ve been having the best luck on pork chops from CostCo. Haven’t seen their double center cut chops in over a year now though.

 

[NW-Bound]

No, covered call. My account has training wheels. They don't let me do naked calls or use margin to secure selling puts.

I had a decent or too large TSLA position, but I could not help adding 15% when it hit $125 and some more at $112. I was gambling that I could reduce my position if there was a short term bounce.

My put contract was only until 1/6 I think, but figured 2/3 in hand better than waiting since I really did not want to buy another 100 shares.

I don't do Tesla, but have some stocks that I thought I would not mind getting more when they dipped. So, I sold puts at a lower price (OTM put), and got assigned when the stock dropped right through the strike price. Ouch! I was wrong when I expected the stock not to drop that much.

I immediately hedged by selling a call at exactly the same strike price, and if the stock stayed low, kept selling calls in an attempt to reduce my exposure to the stock. This has helped me to reduce the loss.

 

[Koolau]

The puts/calls thing sounds like it requires quite a learning curve to me - not to mention actually "doing it" sounding like w*rk. Having said that, if it is fun for others in FIRE, by all means "just do it." It sounds like it can smooth the ride, so, by all means, go for it.

For my part, I'll make my money the old fashioned way. Set and forget. With some luck, I'm just about even for the year even after taking my biggest draw ever from 401(k) - essentially a double RMD. Old, retained Megacorp stock didn't hurt in keeping me above water for the most part. Full disclosure: I'm ignoring inflation (and the hit that means when converting nominal numbers to actual purchasing power.) But YMMV.

 

[audreyh1]

Well we’ll see what happens on Jan 3 and 4, but I would say this was no Santa Rally. Lots of volatility but going nowhere fast (very slightly down).

 

[jollystomper]

S&P 500 Index when this thread was started: 3,954.17
S&P 500 Index at close today: 3.839.50

Change: -2.9%

 

[steelyman]

S&P 500 Index when this thread was started: 3,954.17
S&P 500 Index at close today: 3.839.50

Change: -2.9%

Looks like it’s -19.44% for the year. That’s “WHOA”.

 

[Car-Guy]

Looks like it’s -19.44% for the year. That’s “WHOA”.

Ouch... But, it could have been worse.

 

[NW-Bound]

^^^ Well, the loss may continue on to next year. We don't know yet where the bottom is.

We have been through 50% loss twice in the last 20 years. We should all be seasoned veterans already.

Party on!

 

[audreyh1]

S&P 500 Index when this thread was started: 3,954.17
S&P 500 Index at close today: 3.839.50

Change: -2.9%

The S&P500 closing value on Dec 22 was 3845. That was the day before the Santa Claus Rally period. So we are very slightly down down. -0.14%.

 

[Lsbcal]

^^^ Well, the loss may continue on to next year. We don't know yet where the bottom is.

We have been through 50% loss twice in the last 20 years. We should all be seasoned veterans already.

Party on!

No way do I want to repeat that 2008-2009 ride. I'm too old for that.

And don't you put seasoning on the steak before putting it in the oven?

 

[jimbee]

So that's a no?

 

[NW-Bound]

No way do I want to repeat that 2008-2009 ride. I'm too old for that.

And don't you put seasoning on the steak before putting it in the oven?

Yes. And after going through the dot-com bust and the sub-prime fiasco, we should all be well-done.

 

[Chuckanut]

^^^ Well, the loss may continue on to next year. We don't know yet where the bottom is.

We have been through 50% loss twice in the last 20 years. We should all be seasoned veterans already.

Party on!

We are veterans. But a lot of the young folk only know UP and a quick return to UP if the market goes down. Just like they [-]know[/-] knew about people making killing in Crypto but knew nothing about Bernied Maddoff, Enron, etc.

 

[NW-Bound]

So that's a no?

Did you see the post where Koolau said Santa brought some switches instead of gifts?

 

[Lsbcal]

Yes. And after going through the dot-com bust and the sub-prime fiasco, we should all be well-done.

That's me ....

 

[jimbee]

Did you see the post where Koolau said Santa brought some switches instead of gifts?

I guess you could call that a rally.

 

[Lsbcal]

I guess you could call that a rally.

Good one.

(we are having a lot of fun with this thread )