Words of Wisdom William Bernstein_chat w/Ben Carlson

Good interview. He quoted JP Morgan on a nasty observation that has some truth: "A bear market is when stocks return to their rightful owners."
 
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The only Black Swan is the history you haven't read

Bill is such a treasure
 
Fantastic. I already loved the guy from his books, but his equanimity and humility are both impressive. When I get done reading "The Black Swan" yet again, I think I'll pull "The Investor's Manifesto" off my shelf.

Thanks!
 
I also enjoyed the video. Mind you, Carlson is a lot more "millennial" than I was expecting based on his writing.

Bernstein, as always, raises a lot of good points and cuts through a lot of b.s.
 
That video ought to be mandatory for all the people who are so sure and specific in their posted predictions of the future.
 
This the same Bill Bernstein that stated AFTER the 2007-2009 that his previous advice had been wrong and that a retiree should have 20-25 years of safe cash funded retirement in safe assets BEFORE investing any in stocks, where prior he had stated a 75-25 ratio was acceptable. Wonder what he'll be saying in two years
 
I donated his 'Birth of Plenty' to Katrina. Also read a lot of 'efficient frontier' website and some Boglehead's contributions.

15 Stock Diversification Myth is one of my much debated(in my own mind) favorites.

heh heh heh - Alas Mr Market doesn't give a pitcher of warm spit at all my decades of effort. Full auto since 2006 (Target Retirement 2015) AND NOT LOOKING or TAKING A PEEK once in a while has keep me in ER. Meanwhile the Saint's have won a Superbowl and now the Chiefs. A few good stocks with mad money help keep the male hormones in check during this stay at home period. ;) :flowers:
 
mickeyd said:
I have missed Jack Bogle and his common sense interviews and Bernstein helps me with the sense of loss. Is he the "new" Bogle?
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Well, his books are meatier.
 
Running_Man said:
This the same Bill Bernstein that stated AFTER the 2007-2009 that his previous advice had been wrong and that a retiree should have 20-25 years of safe cash funded retirement in safe assets BEFORE investing any in stocks, where prior he had stated a 75-25 ratio was acceptable. Wonder what he'll be saying in two years
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+1. Dr Bernstein was my favorite investing source, specifically The Four Pillars of Investing. But he did a shocking about face (to me at least) in 2009 after his high NW clients who went berserk selling off during and after the 2008 meltdown, against his advice, and lost their proverbial shirts. Investors who simply stayed the course, like many here, did very well. So I’ve been confused since Bernstein did his about face in 2009. Won’t have a chance to watch the podcast until later, has he changed back?
 
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unclemick said:
I donated his 'Birth of Plenty' to Katrina. Also read a lot of 'efficient frontier' website and some Boglehead's contributions.
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I'll have to re-read Birth of Plenty. Been a long time, but the theme has stuck with me.
 
Great interview, thanks for linking. As for whether Bernstein is the new Bogle, he is the old Bogle and has been around quite a long time. He is 72 years old.
 
Thank you for posting this. He is wise.

William Bernstein's Four Pillars of Investment and The Intelligent Asset Allocator helped me determine an investment plan that led to my ER.
 
I never got the impression in speaking with him at Bogleheads that his view of what a rational investor should do ever changed. I think his change in advice was brought about by his witnessing what his clients (and others) actually did in the last bear market. I have read/listened to all of his books several times and 'The Four Pillars' is the one that set me on my path to FIRE. A very nice guy.
 
I first knew of Bernstein in 1999 through an article in Businessweek by the then investment columnist Robert Barker. Barker flew out to Coos Bay to meet Bernstein. This was before Bernstein published any book. I don't remember how Barker heard of Bernstein, but Bernstein already got some reputation virally prior to the interview by Barker (I did not and still do not hang out on any investment forum).

I then forgot all about this, until I came to this forum and heard Bernstein mentioned again, along with his books. I read The Four Pillars, and thought that it was good, but did not find it spectacular, because the info was available elsewhere piecemeal but perhaps not collected in one book.
 
Thanks for the link, vipertom.

Sounds like we’re banking on our Central banks to know what they’re doing.
 
Finally watched the podcast and enjoyed it, lots of good insights in Dr Bernstein’s usual no nonsense style. I just don’t subscribe to the ‘stocks are 3-mile island toxic to retirees’ position, that he adopted post 2009. While I agree retirees shouldn’t take unnecessary risks especially if “they’ve won the game” - that doesn’t lead me to stocks are ‘toxic for retirees.’ In his more recent books he even talks about the merits of annuities for some retirees, almost Pfau-esque. No thanks. Bernstein’s clients spooked him irreparably after 2009, though that’s surprising for high NW clients, it’s not a reason to give up on ALL investors. I don’t think Bogle ever did...
 
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