Texas Proud
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
- Joined
- May 16, 2005
- Messages
- 17,299
I'm not sure where the numbers you quote are coming from. I see outlays rising from $3.812T in 2011 to $4.467T in 2016. That is a compound growth rate of 3.2%. As a percentage of GDP spending declines from 25.3% in 2011 to 22.6% 1n 2016.
It does look like spending increases more in the back half of the forecast and less in the earlier part. My guess is that spending growth is slow the next couple of years as we spend less on things like unemployment insurance. Spend grows more quickly from 2014-2016 because of SS and Medicare. But that's just a guess, I'd have to dig in to the details to know for sure.
PS Spending does generally grow by more than inflation. We have a growing population.
Fixed my other post so it is easier to read...
The problem is that 2011 (as mentioned) should not be the base year to compare... there is a lot of spending that should not happen again...
I just used the table that you linked and did a year over year comparison.. IOW, 2014 is 5.44% over 2013, 2015 is 5.28% over 2014..
IF you take that table and do a year over year comparison over the many years given... the high percentages are in the last few years and the next few... it was not nearly that high previously...
Edit to add.... I looked and I am wrong... there has been many times the % has been high....