Bird Flu

[Marshac]

Well, some more cases of the bird flu have been reported:

http://edition.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/asiapcf/01/20/vietnam.birdflu.toll/

In our "global economy", how would a pandemic affect it? My gut reaction is that the consequences would be much more severe than in any prior pandemic (to say nothing of the human cost), but I really have nothing to back that up with.

In terms of investments, tourism industries would probably be great ones to short, and perhaps 3M and other companies which produce air filtration materials would be good to hold on to.... Any thoughts?

 

[sgeeeee]

.... Any thoughts?

At the height of the mad cow scare I posted a question to see if anyone had any ideas on what investments might make sense to profit from the situation. I suggested that restaraunts specializing in fried chicken might be a good idea.

Maybe bird flu will make beef a better investment.

 

[Lancelot]

Bird Flu? Maybe....

But here in Bangkok, personally I am more at risk when I cross the street...

Traffic accidents kill significantly more people world wide than do "Bird Flu" and other exotic diseases.

 

[haha]

Bird Flu? Maybe....

But here in Bangkok, personally I am more at risk when I cross the street...

Traffic accidents kill significantly more people world wide than do "Bird Flu" and other exotic diseases.

I think you may be missing the point, and misunderstanding the risk. First, I believe Marshac was not trying to specifically estimate your personal risk, but rather worlwide population risk.

The 1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic is estimated to have killed 20 to 40 million people worldwide on a population base a fraction of today's. The significnace of bird flu is that it thought to be very similar to that flu virus of 1918, and also it crosses from a large avian host population to mammals and humans. Often in Asia.

There are 40,000 traffic deaths annually in the US. I wouildn't know how to scale that up- I know our traffic is much safer than much of the world per driver, but we also have proportionately more cars. It would seem that is the worst case, there couldn't possibly be more than 500,000 to 1 million traffic deaths worlwide per year. This is a real carnage; but a true flu pandemic couild conceivably kill 100 million.

Mikey

 

[Marshac]

The "Bird Flu" is widely believed by epidemiologists to be the source of the next pandemic. The 1918 flu pandemic killed 20-40M people, or about 2.5% of the GLOBAL population. In todays numbers that would be 150M people, or approx 1/2 the total population of the US.

I don't mean to make light of a horrible situation, but if such a pandemic did happen, can you imagine the economic consequences?

 

[Marshac]

Mikey- looks like we had the same idea at the same time

 

[Zipper]

SARS cost the Ontario economy 100's $ millions in the form of increased hospital precautions, lost tourism $ etc. Only a few people started the infection. All from Asia who had recently returned to Toronto.

Before it was contained many frontline healthcare workers had been infected.

Luckily it didn't get out into the general population.

If it had, some of us wouldn't be logging on here today.

If the bird flu gets loose be very afraid.

Emergency rooms and hospitals could soon be overloaded.

Then who has access to the limited number of respirators to keep you alive?

 

[Lancelot]

I think you may be missing the point, and misunderstanding the risk. First, I believe Marshac was not trying to specifically estimate your personal risk, but rather worlwide population risk.

Hey Mikey,

I get Marshac's point and he may have a good investment idea.

I was just stating one guy's opinion -mine- about risk of early demise. When I see Thais driving at night without headlights it sorta registers on my personal risk radar.

But I'll hedge my bets by making a wide detour around KFC...

Lance

 

[haha]

Hey Mikey,

I get Marshac's point and he may have a good investment idea.

I was just stating one guy's opinion -mine- about risk of early demise. When I see Thais driving at night without headlights it sorta registers on my personal risk radar.

But I'll hedge my bets by making a wide detour around KFC...

Lance

Well, you probably understand this too, but just in case, the bird flu risk has absolutely nothing to do with eating birds, chicken or otherwise.

Mikey

 

[Nords]

The 1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic is estimated to have killed 20 to 40 million people worldwide on a population base a fraction of today's. The significnace of bird flu is that it thought to be very similar to that flu virus of 1918, and also it crosses from a large avian host population to mammals and humans. Often in Asia.

Scientific American has a good summary of the 1918 pandemic and today's attempts to recreate/study the virus.
http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?articleID=000E8E94-F9F1-11BE-AD0683414B7F0000
They're not convinced that a bird was the culprit.

One big difference is the lack of treatments in 1918. The pandemic's deaths were caused by suppressed immune systems and bodies subsequently overwhelmed by opportunistic bacteria. This was ten years before penicillin was discovered, let alone widely available, so there wasn't much help.

Today we have antibiotics. While the virus is likely to run rampant absent a vaccine, the symptoms are treatable-- perhaps even controllable.

I bet turkeys are on sale now!

 

[Lancelot]

Hi Mickey,

The "KFC" comment was just a little joke....

 

[John Galt]

Glad to see you all pecking away at this. Not on my list
of things to worry about, but from my lofty perch some of these issues just fly by.

JG

 

[haha]

The January 27 issue of the New England Journal of Medicine has a paper and 2 articles devoted to the topic of avian viruses and pandemics. An article by Arnold Monto starts with these words:

"There have been three influenza pandemics during the past century, 1918, 1957, and 1968. Each was caused by a novel type A virus of avian origin." He then goes on to say that in 1957 and 1968 the pandemic virus seems to have occurred when a human host was simultaneously infected by a human virus strain, and an avian virus. This allowed genetic recombination within the host, and gave the transformed avian virus human to human transmissibility. In contrast, it is thought that the avian virus responsible for the 1918 pandemic accomplished a mutation allowing human to human transmission.

In a separate case report in this same issue, the authors describe a case in China where 2 family members who were caring for a young woman infected with Avian Influenza Virus Type A(H5N1) contracted the disease from this contact. One caretaker died from the illness, and the other was quite sick for a time. The caretakers, who were the originally infected patient's mother and aunt, came from distant cities to care for the sick woman in hospital, and had no contact with poultry.

Virus Type A(H5N1) is the same virus strain that proved frequently lethal in previous outbreaks in China and 7 other Asian countries during 2004. (32 deaths out of 44 reported cases.)

My purpose is not to try to scare or even interest anyone, but to provide some recent published research on this topic for those who do find it interesting.

Mikey

 

[Marshac]

72% is an amazingly high mortality rate, even more so than ebola and smallpox. Then again, it's a small sample size, so YMMV.

 

[haha]

72% is an amazingly high mortality rate, even more so than ebola and smallpox. Then again, it's a small sample size, so YMMV.

Reporting in Asia, particularly rural Asia has not been great. So there might some bias -cases that resulted in death perhaps being more likely to get picked up by public health surveillance.

I forgot to mention that most if not all of those previous 44 cases were believed to have resulted from direct bird contact, not human to human transmission.

The takeaway point is that this is an extremely lethal virus, and that it has shown at least limited ability to be transmitted by human to human contact. Also, it's the nature of viruses to recombine and or mutate, sometimes as in 1957 and 1968 retaining the lethality of the bird virus and adding the transmissibility of human flu viruses.

Mikey

 

[Marshac]

Also, it's totaly unlike China to be anything but honest and forthright when reporting illnesses of this nature, so any numbers from there MUST be correct.

 

[Marshac]

I thought I would resurrect this thread as more reports of possible human-human transmission of H5N1 come in. Anyone else thinking of beating the rush and getting a prescription of tamiflu filled before this winter.... just in case?

 

[wabmester]

Anyone else thinking of beating the rush and getting a prescription of tamiflu filled before this winter.... just in case? 

Probably not a bad idea to have some on hand. The stuff supposedly works pretty well, and it has been shown to protect against the bird flu:

http://www.cnn.com/2005/HEALTH/conditions/07/18/bird.flu.tamiflu.reut/

But the stuff is expensive -- about $6/pill even at the discount Canadian pharmacies.

 

[Nords]

Probably not a bad idea to have some on hand.   

Anyone know where the H5N1 flu vaccine is?

On a side issue, The Great Influenza was an eye-opener. 85 years ago America's "doctors", such as they were, had a better cure rate for some serious diseases than we have today. They had all the public-health procedures to limit the pandemic but were regularly overridden by the military ("Hey, there's a war on!") and the politicians ("Now, let's not start a panic"). Those most at risk for the flu virus were Young Dreamers, not the older people with less-active immune systems or the young kids with little exposure experience. And one of the pandemic's long-term discoveries was the existence of viruses & DNA.

 

[Martha]

80 years ago my grandfather isolated himself on an unheated porch for several years where he stayed to recover from TB and not infect others. The children went off to live with relatives.

My father ended up with TB and spent his teenage years in a TB santarium.

People won't put up with that today.

 

[Brat]

Ah yes, but some of us can hunker down to keep catching it as long as the internet functions.  Reverse quarintine.

Consider the likely exposure rate in urban communities and households with many occupants.  Can you imagine the carniage in the developing world?

 

[Marshac]

Anyone know where the H5N1 flu vaccine is?

From what I have read, H5N1 has been difficult to produce vaccine for, and of the stuff that they have managed to produce, the effectiveness is questionable.

 

[Marshac]

80 years ago my grandfather isolated himself on an unheated porch for several years where he stayed to recover from TB and not infect others.  The children went off to live with relatives.

My father ended up with TB and spent his teenage years in a TB santarium. 

People won't put up with that today.

I wonder if these measures will once again become necessary once the drug resistant strains that have been brewing inside prisons make their way into the general population.

 

[Nords]

I wonder if these measures will once again become necessary once the drug resistant strains that have been brewing inside prisons make their way into the general population.

Forget prisons, you should see the list of vaccinations I had to get for submarine sea duty.

I know, I know, "What's the difference"...

 

[laurence]

Forget prisons, you should see the list of vaccinations I had to get for submarine sea duty.

I know, I know, "What's the difference"...

On submarines the relationships are consensual.

...Nords will now find me and hurt me....