Sillysal said:Your health insurance premium did WHAT?!?
justin said:Justnot,
For cars, you buy the ford focus. No anti-lock brakes, no tape player/cd xm/sirius, no keyless entry, no power doorlocks/windows, no security system. I guess the air bags are standard now, but a lot of the other stuff you can avoid paying for by buying an entry level car. I'll admit that if you're comparing the bare bones car from 20 years ago to a bare bones car today, there is no way to buy an even cheaper bare bones car today. But a mid-level car 10 or twenty years ago probably has a lot of the same features as the bare bones cars today. Part of every car's increase in cost is the extra options and features that have become standard.
I'm not sure if the hedonics adjustments are to counteract our ever-increasing standard of living (or expected standard of living). Consumers want (and get) more and are paying more for it. A mid-level sedan or high-end luxury car is going to be a lot nicer and have many more gadgets and features than the same type car today.
Just not said:Easy.
Take a bucket of stuff in average consumption amounts, make a bucket out of it. Put the prices on it. Multiply. Rinse and repeat.
For example, if the average car is a midsized american sedan equipped with x, y and z, thats your car. If the average person eats 200lbs of steak, 50lbs of hamburger, 20lbs of rice, etc...theres your food.
Then you nicely regionalize it so people in different parts of the country get 'their' inflation rate.
Provide the data in a handy calculator format so someone can plug in their stuff and get their personal rate.
Maybe i'm oversimplifying this, but I cant see why it cant be painfully simple. For a given lifestyle, employing a given set of capital goods and consumables, how much more will it cost me this year to live that lifestyle than it did last year.
We USED to do this in CPI, these are recent changes IIRC...Clinton era.
justin said:There are already regional CPI figures.
It seems like the CPI is pretty simple already. It states the amount that consumer prices increased by each year. If your consumption patterns are atypical, you can get the categorical CPI data and rebalance your bucket of goods to reflect the mixture of goods you consume.
I do the grocery shopping at my house, and believe me, I'm well versed in substitution. But guess what, inflation hits those items too. Example, I seldom biought cuts of beef -- bought ground beef instead. But that 99-cent per lb ground beef is now $1.29 per lb. OK, so I buy ground turkey. But the 88-cent per lb stuff is now 98 cents per pound.justin said:As for the substitution of goods, I know that I practice the substitution of goods. I assumed everyone else did, too. If I go to the store and apples are on sale, I'll buy more of those than bananas. If grapes are on sale, I'll buy more of those than other fruits. Ground turkey vs. ground beef is the same way. I'm indifferent to which of the two I purchase, so if one is cheaper than the other, I'll go for the cheaper one.
I wonder what a good way to measure inflation would be? How can you take all the human bias out of something calculated by humans?
You are almost right on the money for my personal CPI, since '97 the annualized geometric mean was 6.1%ben said:Like Just Not says; it is really not that hard to do. I have also seen friends Quicken/Money sheets over the years and a general 5% increase seem to be the norm.
I also believe that one can postpone (not totally remove) the impact by smart shopping(Incl. buy plenty when on sale/do internet comparisons Etc.) and delay of purchase (car/PC/electronics comes to mind).
VoyT said:I do the grocery shopping at my house, and believe me, I'm well versed in substitution. But guess what, inflation hits those items too. Example, I seldom biought cuts of beef -- bought ground beef instead. But that 99-cent per lb ground beef is now $1.29 per lb. OK, so I buy ground turkey. But the 88-cent per lb stuff is now 98 cents per pound.
Same with chicken ... when whole chicken prices rose, the quarters were a better buy. But instead of 39 cent and 49 cent per lb quarters, it's 59 and 69 cents per lb. So what do I do, subsist on rice and beans?
You might say, "but your grocery bill is still cheaper because you substituted." Maybe so, but the baseline costs are going up -- and there comes a time when you can't substitute any more. (BTW, go back and check the price of that bare bones focus a year or two from now.)
Just not said:My understanding of basket substitution is not that it looks for similar items of more reasonable price, but that it downgrades the product to a cheaper one.
I heard it explained by one of the folks that installed basket substitution that "If steak gets too expensive, people buy hamburger, so in the CPI calculation, if steak gets too expensive we do what the consumer would do and replace steak with hamburger in the basket".
To which my response is that if I'm supposed to be getting compensated for inflation, and steak gets more expensive, my inflation adjusted income better accommodate that.
As far as regionalization goes, yes I realize you can see some regional stats. But you arent paid that way. You get paid as a national CPI average figure, not your 'true' local inflation rate. So if you live in a cheapo area, CPI is good to you. You live in a more expensive area where prices rise faster, you're getting screwed.
My 2000 ford expedition had a base MSRP of 28,000 and change in December of 1999 when I bought it. The same vehicle today has a base MSRP of 36,000 and change. Thats a little bit more than 2-3% a year. If gas, food, clothing or the prices of homes had withdrawn a little bit to accommodate that, that would be good. Except all of those are also up substantially.