Expect a big jump in gasoline prices

[Koolau]

Intersting question about gasoline, diesel distillation residue for making tar asphalt etc..


If gasoline cars are done away with yet still there are many diesel trucks which need fuel, what to do with the gas, naptha and whatever else is coming off the distillation column. Make more plastic stuff?
I have some peripheral guess as to the refinery process, maybe the Petrochem crowd can eleaborate.

Maybe I have no vision, but I don't see ICE (gasoline powered) cars disappearing any time soon. Cars last a long time these days, so will need the appropriate fuel. I know there are noises being made about no longer producing ICE cars in the relatively near future. Previous attempts at decreeing emission and mileage standards have met with mixed success and have cost a fair amount of money. You can't fool mother nature (at least not for free.) Citizens love CAFE standards, for instance. Gummint getting tough on the big, bad car companies is great - until folks realize who actually pays for it. Not trying to launch a SCUD missile here, just trying to remind folks that what ever we do, car wise, will be relatively gradual - if for no other reason than the sheer enormity of the ICE cars still on the road. Saying, we'll do away with ICE cars and accomplishing it could be two different things. I'm not suggesting the goal isn't worthy - I'm only saying we can't just dictate something and assume it will happen - especially on a given date. The realities will eventually win out in one way or another - who knows, maybe it will easier than I think (I WAS wrong once! )

As always with something as complex as this subject, opinions will vary and people of good will can agree to disagree or, perhaps more importantly, see what will happen since YMMV.

 

[Koolau]

You made me look up what I spent on gas (mostly at Costco) on my Quicken screen. Last year, I spent $308.

You had me beat. But then, where can you go on an island?


PS. In 2019, pre-Covid time, I spent $461 on gas when at home, plus another $258 for gas while driving around Spain/France/Portugal.

The $258 was not as bad as I thought, considering the many kilometers that I drove, plus the high gas prices in Europe. Perhaps I missed counting some gas fill-ups, but not sure. It also helps that the rental car was a VW Golf, or something equivalent.

Heh, heh, good point on driving on an Island. I think I heard you can drive no more 23 miles in one direction on Oahu without hitting water. But year before, I probably spent $300 just for fuel on the mainland. This year, I hit water after 23 miles instead.

 

[Car-Guy]

Maybe I have no vision, but I don't see ICE (gasoline powered) cars disappearing any time soon.

Agree, not soon, but it will happen.

As much as I hate to admit it, ICE's "as we know them" for cars are doomed for extinction. And from my POV, it's not because of any "green initiatives or any other "political" agendas, but because of the finite supply of oil. 10+ years ago, I heard Rex Tillerson talk about oil reserves on one of the business channels. (Cramer I think)... The question was how much oil is still in the ground. "As I remember it" at that time, Rex said about half of what there was 100 years ago is still in the ground...But consumption rates have increased dramatically in the past 100 years too, so we don't have 100 years of oil remaining at current usage rates. Today, with proven reserves, we have less than 50 years worth of oil left at present consumption rates. (see link below) Assuming they find more (even a lot more), or cut consumption (not happening yet) it is going to run out. Not in my lifetime, but it's going to happen.

In reality though, I suspect we'll have oil for hundreds of years from now, it just won't be used to power cars since it will become to limited and expensive at some point. Whatever is remaining will be needed for other things that only oil can make.

50 years isn't a long time to "convert" the world from their addiction on oil... Heck, it puts it in perspective for me when I realize I've recently owned cars that were more than 50 years old. My point is, 50 years isn't very long.

So, the world needs to find alternate energy sources, for cars, planes, trains, etc, etc, etc before it runs out...YMMV


https://www.worldometers.info/oil/

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

[/URL]

Your gasoline expense might be $0 but that's only possible because you rely on someone else to use gasoline to ensure that your needs are met.

Not for much longer.

http://insideevs.com/news/485959/rumor-tesla-produce-2500-semi-this-year/

 

[Yoheadden]

Gas has been steadily creeping up here in CT since January.

Texas, Hmm, when I asked my F-I-L what they were attributing the increase too, he told told me Bidden and all the things he changed that Trump did.

 

[ls99]

If oil reserves run low or out, what happens to all the other stuff made at refineries? I am reasonably sure that refineries do not exist to primarily make gasoline. I suspect the plastics industry is major customer of distillates. As I noted earlier I do not know what are the total products of a refinery and what use the products are made of.


I gues I'll have to consult Dr Google Phd for answers.


Found:

Per Dr. Semih Eser

 

[MichaelB]

Please, not another Tesla thread....

 

[Koolau]

Agree, not soon, but it will happen.

<SNIP>

50 years isn't a long time to "convert" the world from their addiction on oil... Heck, it puts it in perspective for me when I realize I've recently owned cars that were more than 50 years old. My point is, 50 years isn't very long.

So, the world needs to find alternate energy sources, for cars, planes, trains, etc, etc, etc before it runs out...YMMV


https://www.worldometers.info/oil/

I agree. Heh, heh, but when you're in your 70's, 50 years IS a long time I don't think I'll be around to see it but YMMV.

 

[Music Lover]

50 years isn't a long time to "convert" the world from their addiction on oil... Heck, it puts it in perspective for me when I realize I've recently owned cars that were more than 50 years old. My point is, 50 years isn't very long.

So, the world needs to find alternate energy sources, for cars, planes, trains, etc, etc, etc before it runs out...YMMV

50 years isn't long but it will be more than 50. First of all, as the supply dwindles prices will go up making other sources more competitive reducing usage. Also, as prices increase previously known oil that was too expensive to extract will now be cost effective to get at. And, they still might find more.

Eventually we'll run out but it will probably be closer to 100 years.

 

[Car-Guy]

Please, not another Tesla thread....

If we are voting, I'll vote with you on that one!

 

[Car-Guy]

I agree. Heh, heh, but when you're in your 70's, 50 years IS a long time I don't think I'll be around to see it but YMMV.

Me too!

 

[aja8888]

Please, not another Tesla thread....

If it gets started, merge it in with the home generator thread, that will kill it.

 

[CardsFan]

Of course, there is always the 300 years worth of coal we have in the ground that could help .

https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained...verable coal,58% is underground mineable coal.

 

[Car-Guy]

Of course, there is always the 300 years worth of coal we have in the ground that could help .

There must be a lot of coal in the ground since:


Red text is from Wikipedia:


Across the world, thousands of underground coal fires are burning at any given moment. The problem is most acute in industrializing, coal-rich nations such as China

Many recent mine fires have started from people burning trash in a landfill that was in proximity to abandoned coal mines, including the much-publicized Centralia, Pennsylvania, fire, which has been burning since 1962. Of the hundreds of mine fires in the United States burning today, most are found in the state of Pennsylvania.

 

[CardsFan]

There must be a lot of coal in the ground since:


Red text is from Wikipedia:


Across the world, thousands of underground coal fires are burning at any given moment. The problem is most acute in industrializing, coal-rich nations such as China

Many recent mine fires have started from people burning trash in a landfill that was in proximity to abandoned coal mines, including the much-publicized Centralia, Pennsylvania, fire, which has been burning since 1962. Of the hundreds of mine fires in the United States burning today, most are found in the state of Pennsylvania.

Well, since it already burning, let's get it out of the ground and use the energy

 

[foxfirev5]

Seriously

Dead serious. Now do you get it? I let this response age while the facts unfolded.

 

[Montecfo]

Just because your car doesn't burn gas, doesn't mean your life isn't affected by the price of oil. Unless you walk everywhere you go..

To put a finer point on it, electric cars in the US burn primarily fossil fuels.

 

[ownyourfuture]

From my POV, gas is cheaper today (inflation adjusted) than it was when I started driving in the late 60''s

I believe it. Gasoline is dirt cheap.
Sometime in 2006, the Minneapolis Star Tribune newspaper had an article about what certain things cost 25 years earlier in 1980.

 

[MRG]

Well, since it already burning, let's get it out of the ground and use the energy

That's the reason it burns, mining. My parents were from north central Pennsylvania where a mine fire burned for 100 years. I have memories of going there as a child in the 1960s. Seemed like every time we went there another section was the town was barricaded off and people's homes were evacuated. A few months later those homes were burned and another section blocked off.

There was a smell of burning coal and a heavy sulpher aroma. As a child I remember going to visit my grandparents and putting together the preacher's sermons of hell, fire, and brimstone, and the smells of the burning [emoji91]coal. I knew mom and dad must be taking me to Hell! I must have been about 7. I've never been back after the commonwealth spent billions to reclaim the area. That area burned for 100 years because of a coal mine. No thanks.

 

[braumeister]

I believe it. Gasoline is dirt cheap.
Sometime in 2006, the Minneapolis Star Tribune newspaper had an article about what certain things cost 25 years earlier in 1980.

In 1946:

• A gallon of gas cost 21¢ which would be $2.94 today, so that's in line with inflation
• A loaf of white bread cost 10¢ which would be $1.40 today, so also close.
• A first class stamp was 3¢ which would be 42¢ today, so that's more expensive.
• The average new car cost $1,125 which would be $15,737 today, but today's cars are infinitely better and safer.
• Average starting salary for college graduates was $8,870 which would be $124,076 today. We have lost some ground there.

 

[dixonge]

Restarting Texas’ damaged refineries is going to take weeks

And you folks who don't live in Texas thought you'd escaped any fallout from the big freeze...

update:

"The majority of the plants along Texas's refinery row are in the process of restarting, with most expected back online by mid-March, according to company statements and filings made with state regulatory agencies detailing emissions events, which go along with plant restarts."

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/...ners-thaw-out-their-plants-after-polar-vortex

 

[Koolau]

In 1946:


[*]Average starting salary for college graduates was $8,870 which would be $124,076 today. We have lost some ground there.
[/LIST]

This sounds high for 1946. It's certainly possible that college degrees were so rare back then that they were relatively more valuable. The only thing I could find (quickly enough to keep my attention) went back to 1960 when beginning salaries for college graduates was listed as $6084. If your research is correct, the value of a college degree fell significantly from 1946 to 1960. That is certainly possible.

When I graduated in 1970, starting salaries were maybe $10.5K - WAY less than the equivalent 1946 salary listed above when adjusted.

Again, I could not (nor do I want to) refute your research, but it is an amazing turn of events - I guess you'd say that a college degree is more a bare minimum now as opposed to back in 1946 when it would have been a ticket to prosperity. As always, YMMV.

 

[braumeister]

This sounds high for 1946. It's certainly possible that college degrees were so rare back then that they were relatively more valuable. The only thing I could find (quickly enough to keep my attention) went back to 1960 when beginning salaries for college graduates was listed as $6084. If your research is correct, the value of a college degree fell significantly from 1946 to 1960. That is certainly possible.

When I graduated in 1970, starting salaries were maybe $10.5K - WAY less than the equivalent 1946 salary listed above when adjusted.

Again, I could not (nor do I want to) refute your research, but it is an amazing turn of events - I guess you'd say that a college degree is more a bare minimum now as opposed to back in 1946 when it would have been a ticket to prosperity. As always, YMMV.

Thanks for correcting me. I was looking at a couple of different sources and mixed them up. The $8,870 average was for 1968, the year I graduated college. Sorry about that.

 

[CardsFan]

That's the reason it burns, mining. My parents were from north central Pennsylvania where a mine fire burned for 100 years. I have memories of going there as a child in the 1960s. Seemed like every time we went there another section was the town was barricaded off and people's homes were evacuated. A few months later those homes were burned and another section blocked off.

There was a smell of burning coal and a heavy sulpher aroma. As a child I remember going to visit my grandparents and putting together the preacher's sermons of hell, fire, and brimstone, and the smells of the burning [emoji91]coal. I knew mom and dad must be taking me to Hell! I must have been about 7. I've never been back after the commonwealth spent billions to reclaim the area. That area burned for 100 years because of a coal mine. No thanks.

Point taken, but none the less, we as a country have a LOT of energy in the ground. Not using it seems senseless to me.

 

[Sunset]

Point taken, but none the less, we as a country have a LOT of energy in the ground. Not using it seems senseless to me.

We have a lot of sunlight and wind too. Use them all !