Hurricane Florence

[corn18]

One of those spaghetti maps has it showing up in Cincinnati. Yikes!

 

[Walt34]

What is an old fashioned HW heater? You burn wood to heat the water?

I think he means one with a pilot light that burns continuously. Newer ones tend to have electric ignition to help conserve gas. I would also want one with a pilot light, which we have.

 

[ncbill]

I think he means one with a pilot light that burns continuously. Newer ones tend to have electric ignition to help conserve gas. I would also want one with a pilot light, which we have.

Some tankless models use a piezo activated by water flow to generate a spark, so they don't need electricity (saw those installed at the local Scout camp)

IIRC, I don't think you can buy a new tank model that has a standing pilot.

 

[Popeye]

So ... when does Florence shift to a NW heading from its current WNW heading? I've been watching the satellite videos with much interest.

If Florence maintains its current heading all the way to CONUS the eye would come ashore around Savannah - quite a bit south of its current predicted arrival location.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_grap...ind+png/212435_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Florence was located
by satellite near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 67.9 West.
Florence is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h).
A motion toward the west-northwest and northwest is expected through
early Thursday. Florence is expected to slow down considerably by
late Thursday into Friday. On the forecast track, the center of
Florence will move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean between
Bermuda and the Bahamas through Wednesday, and approach the coast of
North Carolina or South Carolina in the hurricane warning area on
Thursday and Friday.

This is the latest track forecast. It hasn’t moved much in the last few updates. But it looks like the steering currents collapse right around landfall so this thing could just sit and dump ran on the Carolinas through the weekend.

 

[NW-Bound]

I never have to worry about losing power due to hurricanes or winter storms where I am. But if I need to keep the fridge going plus some minimal lighting, I will rig up the hardware I have in my motorhome: 3 lithium batteries, a 2kW inverter, and a fast and smart charger to feed the batteries. I would use a small portable generator to power the battery charger, because it is not fuel efficient to run the motorhome genset just for that.

This set up is helpful to allow running the generator only a few hours at a time and not continuously to keep the fridge going. If just to run the fridge, each of the 3 lithium batteries can last close to 24 hours.

 

[Breedlove]

Hearing this storm could stall and possibly miss an actual hit but in the stall heavy rain through Saturday .
No Brainiac but isn't there a heap of Nuclear Power plants in the area . If they get heavy heavy rain could it become a Fukishima like in Japan a few years ago ?

 

[Just_Steve]

Usually the weather people on the local news around here are all full of hype for these type of storms but all of the reports I have seen so far have a very subdued and solemn tone to them, in my opinion that does bode well for those in the path.

 

[JoeWras]

I think he means one with a pilot light that burns continuously. Newer ones tend to have electric ignition to help conserve gas. I would also want one with a pilot light, which we have.

Correct.

 

[JoeWras]

IIRC, I don't think you can buy a new tank model that has a standing pilot.

Yes you can. See link below. The nice thing about the new models is that the combustion chamber is partially sealed. You cannot light it with a match or lighter. They have a no-battery peizo-electric sparker to light it. It actually works pretty well.

This appliance has a pilot which is lit by a
piezo-electric spark gas ignition system.

https://www.homedepot.com/p/Rheem-P...gclsrc=aw.ds&dclid=CP_Z6P6rtd0CFYoZgQodS60PHQ

 

[Breedlove]

Wind will not be the problem So Carolina could get blasted by rain flooding

 

[JoeWras]

Hearing this storm could stall and possibly miss an actual hit but in the stall heavy rain through Saturday .
No Brainiac but isn't there a heap of Nuclear Power plants in the area . If they get heavy heavy rain could it become a Fukishima like in Japan a few years ago ?

There are a few, and the one in Brunswick county, is currently directly in the path.

However, a hurricane surge does not equal an earthquake plus tsunami. Fukushima had minutes to prepare, along with just having survived an earthquake which caused damage.

Duke energy has been preparing for a week now. They plan on shutting the plant down when the hurricane gets close. It did fine for Fran, where it took a direct cat 3 hit. But of course, we shall see.

 

[Chuckanut]

I am due to visit South and North Cartolina in about a month. We are really, really, really looking forward to our visit, So, I would greatly appreciate you folks in the area keeping the place together.

My prayers and best wishes are with you.

 

[W2R]

Sincerely hoping for the best for all of those in Hurricane Florence's path.

That said, it isn't looking any better as time goes by. As if a Category 4 hurricane wasn't bad enough, the forecast still says it is likely to stall near the coast, bringing extreme rains, storm surge, and wind damage. They don't say it might strengthen while it is stalled, but in the past that has been known to happen when hurricanes stall over warm waters. Here's Jeff Masters' latest discussion on Wunderground, in which he discusses why it is thought that Florence may not intensify while stalled.

Looking at the National Hurricane Center's website, not only do we have H. Florence, but there are quite a few other hurricanes as well as potential hurricanes this season.

 

[CoolRich59]

Good luck to our SE Coast forum friends. Could be Cat 4 next week.

Same here. Stay dry and stay safe.

 

[Breedlove]

Depends on where the storm hits but if it hits in a more shallow area lots of beaches the storm would probably drop to a Cat 3 when it hits . If it hits in an area where the water is deeper it could be a cat 4 . I am betting it will drop to a Cat 3 when it hits . Still a bad bad storm

 

[GrayHare]

The shallow water near the coast limits the available heat that fuels the storm. I would not be surprised if Florence weakens such that no land station actually observes sustained hurricane force winds.

 

[sheehs1]

One hour inland in Southeast Virginia on the border of the Va/NC line for my primary home. My bayfront condo on the Chesapeake Bay was evacuated (Zone A) and we were the only zone to be evacuated from Va. Beach. Had a couple or more sleepless nights prior to the track moving a farther south because my daughter would not evacuate with the grandchildren and husband.

Extended Family has a ocean front beach cottage in Emerald Isle, NC (Morehead City, NC- one of the projected land falls earlier). I did too until I asked to be bought out several years ago but still have a sentimental interest since it was my parents. Other family has property there as well.

My home city was affected by the aftermath of Hurricane Floyd (1999). It is beside a river. All the business in downtown flooded, services lost,, etc. Made national news. It was catastrophic to our city....as it was to many others. Becaue of Floyd I have a deep respect for what this much rain and flooding can do in the aftermath, particular as the water sheds down from the mountains towards the ocean. We are expecting the river to crest at a higher level than Floyd should that much rain fall in Va. For now, the track has changed to go more south than it was even a day ago. So I slept a bit better last night. But still worried for my neighboring states of N.C., S.C. and Ga. I actually have a friend who is refusing to evacuate and who lives on a barrier island in South Nags Head (Buxton-Hatterus).

I have been preparing all week. So as another poster said, the time to prepare is 4 to 5 days out. The only thing I have not done is a whole house generator. After this, it may be the first and next thing I do...as these storms are all getting more frequent. Including the snow storms. Only saving grace is our City has it's own electric department and they typically gets our power back up with hours. Even with Hurricane Floyd it took them only 2 to 3days...not the weeks our neighboring counties experienced.

I have been pretty much glued to the weather channel and Facebook for some good meteorologist when I have not been preparing.

Thanks to all for your thoughts and for those of us in the southeastern states. Will definitely be watching and hoping for the best for N.C.

 

[Gumby]

IIRC, the 100 fathom line is about 90 miles offshore in that area.

 

[sengsational]

IIRC, the 100 fathom line is about 90 miles offshore in that area.

Looks like it's more protective of Florida, and we know how that usually turns-out

 

[kgtest]

Cousin survived Katrina and lived out of a FEMA trailer for a year during the rebuild (if you want to call it survival). Was Ground Zero in Waveland, MS. The destruction was overwhelming...for years and years. Just now they are finally bustling again but there was a mass exodus and a lot did not bother to come back.


Hope for the best, plan for the worst. Godspeed!

 

[Breedlove]

Seen the Cajun Navy leaving Baytown yesterday , looked like a military deployment . A couple of the trucks had the wrong flag waving . I think those will come down soon . They even had DPS escort , to get them through traffic .

 

[GrayHare]

Good to see weakening is expected prior to landfall. From the NHC 5pm update, "By 36 h and beyond, decreasing ocean heat content along with the slowing forward speed of Florence will likely produce cold upwelling beneath the hurricane, inducing a gradual weakening trend. When Florence moves over the shallow coastal shelf waters in 48-72 h, land interaction and more significant upwelling are anticipated, which should further enhance the weakening process."

 

[Breedlove]

Houston News just said Americas Cajun Navy sent 900 boats . I know we seen a lot of them . They say they are getting ready to do another convoy probably Saturday with K9 dogs . These people are a good bunch.

 

[imoldernu]

Hurricanes are scary. Have been in and around too many, so treat the threat with great respect.

Looking back... The fathers of two of my closest neighbor friends (in the 40's) were swept away in the great 1938 Hurricane in Providence Rhode Island. Widows raising 5 children.

1954 Hurricane Carol in Rhode Island. I was a lifeguard and was on rescue duty in Point Judith RI where the Tuna Derby was being held, hundreds of Tuna Fishing boats destroyed, left in piles, still tied to their docks. Earlier in the Morning, I was home in Pawtucket, and trying to put our car in the middle stall of a three car garage in our back yard. Couldn't close the doors,and the wind swept under the roof of the entire garage, lifting it straight up in the air, in one piece, and over the two story house on the next street... landing in matchsticks in the only open lot on that street.

1961 Hurricane Donna... We were living on Martha's Vineyard... scary but not our house, so no cost for the damage.

1966 Betsy Living Falmouth Mass... minor damage. I was working in NY at the time.

1992 Florida Leesburg ...Andrew... New Roof.

2015 Tornado Woodhaven Lakes IL, 500 homes (park Models/Trailers) destroyed 15,000 trees downed.My camp, sea wall damage, downed 100 yr old oak.

2016 Unnamed storm/tornado Peru, Il New Roof on every (65) home in our CCRC.Tennis ball size hail and wind. Broken windows and many hundreds of hail damaged cars.

To those on the path, best wishes for a safe outcome.

 

[Teacher Terry]

Scary definitely. Glad I live on the west coast.