No active MLB player left from the 20th century

[ziggy29]

Yeah its very strange there are no mlb players given it’s fairly low impact in the spectrum of pro sports.

This is why I wonder if this is at least partially a result of analytics driving older players out of the game.

 

[Qs Laptop]

This is why I wonder if this is at least partially a result of analytics driving older players out of the game.

How are analytics responsible?

More likely the older players just aren't as good as the younger players and/or they are more expensive for the talent level provided.

 

[ziggy29]

How are analytics responsible?



More likely the older players just aren't as good as the younger players and/or they are more expensive for the talent level provided.

Analytics have been showing that signing older players is a gamble that does not pay off enough. Like I said earlier, it is a big reason why we have stopped seeing big long term contracts for players in their 30s.

 

[Qs Laptop]

Analytics have been showing that signing older players is a gamble that does not pay off enough. Like I said earlier, it is a big reason why we have stopped seeing big long term contracts for players in their 30s.

Well, we must have different definitions of analytics. What you call analytics, I call plain old common sense backed by historical data.

What I call analytics is the study of pitch locations, spin rates, velocities, extent of up/down and/or left/right movement, pitch release point etc. Also, batter's launch angle, bat swing velocity, batted ball exit velocity, hitter's spray charts. A pitcher's tendency to throw a particular pitch in a particular count in a particular location. Defensive alignments for batters given historical hit locations on any given pitch type thrown, etc.

There is much more.

 

[Which Roger]

Bartolo and Beltre are part of a chain of 7 players where each guy's career overlapped that of the next guy in the chain, and at least one was active every year from the beginning of MLB in 1871 to last year. 7 players covering 148 years. Cavarretta is the key, since he played every season during WWII. A lot of young talent right now to be the next long link in the chain.



Cap Anson 1871-1897
Honus Wagner 1897-1917
Babe Ruth 1914-1935
Phil Cavarretta 1934-1955
Henry Aaron 1954-1976
Dennis Eckersley 1975-1998
Beltre and Bartolo 1998-2018

 

[Which Roger]

Well, we must have different definitions of analytics. What you call analytics, I call plain old common sense backed by historical data.

What I call analytics is the study of pitch locations, spin rates, velocities, extent of up/down and/or left/right movement, pitch release point etc. Also, batter's launch angle, bat swing velocity, batted ball exit velocity, hitter's spray charts. A pitcher's tendency to throw a particular pitch in a particular count in a particular location. Defensive alignments for batters given historical hit locations on any given pitch type thrown, etc.

There is much more.

Those things are the state-of-the-art analytics, but they've only been measured/measurable for the last few years. I think of analytics as any kind of analysis that tries to measure things better than they've been measured in the past. 30+ years ago, guys like Bill James and Pete Palmer helped us understand that outs are a scarce resource and hence not making an out has a lot of value. That led to moneyball, focus on OPS instead of BA/HR/RBI, etc. But now everybody knows what Billy Beane knew a decade ago, so the edge will go to those who can discover the next big thing to give an edge. Until everybody else figures it out, of course.

 

[Qs Laptop]

Analytics have been showing that signing older players is a gamble that does not pay off enough. Like I said earlier, it is a big reason why we have stopped seeing big long term contracts for players in their 30s.

Off the top of my head the only guys I can think of aged 30+ that received big long term contracts are Albert Pujols and A-Rod. It's not like they are commonplace.

 

[ziggy29]

Those things are the state-of-the-art analytics, but they've only been measured/measurable for the last few years. I think of analytics as any kind of analysis that tries to measure things better than they've been measured in the past. 30+ years ago, guys like Bill James and Pete Palmer helped us understand that outs are a scarce resource and hence not making an out has a lot of value. That led to moneyball, focus on OPS instead of BA/HR/RBI, etc. But now everybody knows what Billy Beane knew a decade ago, so the edge will go to those who can discover the next big thing to give an edge. Until everybody else figures it out, of course.

Yeah, I was talking more about the previous generation's "Moneyball" analytics -- some might prefer to call them "sabermetrics" or some such. In particular, yeah, things like OPS and "wins above replacement". But they are a form of analytics, but not the bleeding edge analytics coming into vogue today. And they led to the growing conclusion that older players are (on average) a bad bet and not worth what they are usually asking for. And even if they are still playing well now, chances are they will decline hard in a small number of years.

Off the top of my head the only guys I can think of aged 30+ that received big long term contracts are Albert Pujols and A-Rod. It's not like they are commonplace.

Chris Davis, at age 30 in 2016, signed a 7-year deal with the Orioles. He has been execrable.

Pujols looks to have been another example of a bad contract -- while not being terrible, he was paid superstar money for less than superstar performance. Fortunately for the Angels they found some guy named Trout who can play a little bit.

Players over 30 today are having a hard time getting even 3-year deals. There may not be many decade-long deals for the over-30s, but there were many 3-, 4- and 5-year deals and those have mostly gone dry now. The best most can hope for, especially over about 35, is a 2-year deal.