ls99
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
- Joined
- May 2, 2008
- Messages
- 6,506
This has always worked for me.I imagine trying to insert a wet noodle's free end into a horizontal straw while holding said noodle with one hand.
I'm no engineer, but one thing that I've wondered is just how much pressure the oil spewing from the pipe must be exerting to overcome the pressure of one mile of ocean water pushing against it. It seems to me the force of the oil coming out of the break must be huge and this, along with the other complicating factors involved in working deep underwater, presents a huge obstacle to plugging the leak.
I had 'heard' previously that one of the dangers is that the pipe is already damaged, and if any attempt to stop the flow results in damaging what is left of the pipe, you could have a completely uncontrolled release of oil rather than the partial release they have now.
My 'pure guess' is that anything that just 'caps' the flow will result in so much added pressure to the pipe that they are sure it will completely collapse. Thus plugging it with mud, then concrete will allow them for form a plug 10s of feet (or more?).
This has always worked for me.
BP has a monumental engineering task ahead of them to get this well to stop leaking prior to getting the horizontal intersecting line in place and killing it with cement. I'd give them about a 50-50 chance on this top kill method to the BOP working and even worse odds on the so called junk shot. I think they are trying everything they can think of but quite frankly this is a scenerio that should never had happened, so they are kind of scratching their collective asses on what to do. A real black eye for BP as well as the oil industry.
If BP really did have to pay for all the damages, for a complete cleanup, and all the lost income for companies, wouldn't it bankrupt them? Think of all the lost hotel business, secondary effects (hotel workers get laid off, etc.).
Geez, I was just commenting on some of the news coverage I heard. I don't think NPR was getting their info only from oil company employees. And I heard reports of singular bird occurrences.
That is still a very imprecise measure. I don't doubt that one could still find damage at the Valdez area, but animals/plants are living there, right?
What's the solution? If we stop drilling and mining, the rest of the world will continue and we have no assurance that they will regulate/enforce the risks any better than we do. How is China doing with regulations and enforcement on mercury and other coal pollutants?
Excellent point. Looking glass half-full, I'm actually surprised at just how rare these disasters are. What % of the world is run on drilled oil? Yet, these disasters are (fortunately) big news instead of every day occurrences.
-ERD50
But I do know that a system that allows BP (and others) to consistently and repeatedly screw up by carelessness is a broken system. It's just now coming out how this well was not capped properly. They have no reason to be careful. The punishment they will get is less than the cost of doing it properly.
Would you let a brain surgeon operate on you without washing his hands first? And yet we let a few people/corporations prosper by taking unnecessary risks and poisoning our world. It is the tragedy of the commons, and a lack of regulation and oversight, and consequences that are not sufficient to punish the perps.
Sorry if I'm strident. But we in Alaska have been living with the consequences of the oil spill in PWS for over 20 years and it gets really old.
Yes, some animals and plants are living in PWS, but fewer and of less varieties than before, and many with elevated levels of toxins in their bodies. The point I was trying to make was that to someone who had never seen PWS before the spill and had no education about the critters that were there before, it would appear just fine now from a distance.
I don't claim to have a perfect solution.
Sorry if I'm strident. But we in Alaska have been living with the consequences of the oil spill in PWS for over 20 years and it gets really old.
Yes, some animals and plants are living in PWS, but fewer and of less varieties than before, and many with elevated levels of toxins in their bodies. The point I was trying to make was that to someone who had never seen PWS before the spill and had no education about the critters that were there before, it would appear just fine now from a distance. But ask the herring fishermen, the orca biologists, the birders, the local people.
To a blind man, a blank wall is as beautiful as a Van Gogh painting. Most people are blind now to what beauty and abundance nature is capable of, because we live in areas that have already been trashed by those before us.
I don't claim to have a perfect solution. But I do know that a system that allows BP (and others) to consistently and repeatedly screw up by carelessness is a broken system. It's just now coming out how this well was not capped properly. They have no reason to be careful. The punishment they will get is less than the cost of doing it properly. And engineers usually have no concept of biology and the destruction they will cause. "I see some wildlife so things must be all right now!"
Exxon trashed our Sound and they have prospered since.
Would you let a brain surgeon operate on you without washing his hands first? And yet we let a few people/corporations prosper by taking unnecessary risks and poisoning our world. It is the tragedy of the commons, and a lack of regulation and oversight, and consequences that are not sufficient to punish the perps.
Someone who says that "the punishment they will get is less than the cost of doing it properly" is no thinking properly IMO...
How much does it cost to drive a ship properly
How much does it cost to cap a well properly
True, but I think it gets twisted when applied to a singular case (and I think you address that later in your post).
It isn't the added cost of a more secure capping procedure for that well that is the issue, it is the cost of capping every single well they drill (or make sure that NO captain is piloting improperly at ANY time on ANY tanker). Obviously, they don't know ahead of time which will be the problem, so the more secure procedures need to apply across the board. How many wells have been drilled w/o incident?
And this isn't defending them in any way. I do feel that when there is the potential for such extraordinary damage, that extraordinary measures, and extraordinary (multiple) back up plans need to be in place, and tested routinely.
I think it helps to personalize the issue (for illustration) to put the finger-pointing in perspective - consider this: Did everyone on this forum have their brakes inspected today (and every day) by a certified mechanic? Probably not, but if they fail a life close to us could be lost. But we take our chances, thinking that they 'seem' OK, and they were OK when they were last checked, etc... The cost of failure is very high indeed, yet we don't take extraordinary measures to prevent a problem.
-ERD50
this is an incident that has never happened before. how do you practice for that? engineering something that has never been done takes time. more regs you say? maybe you should read the current ones and suggest some specific changes.
the president will put on a dog & pony show, but they won't stop oil production in the gulf. they want their 17.5%, in addition to proceeds from lease sales.
Stopping offshore drilling is not a realistic option, the senator said.
“Now we are not going to stop drilling in the Gulf tomorrow, folks. Let’s be realistic. There are 48,000 wells out there. One of them went sour. About 30 percent of our transportation fuel comes from the Gulf. You think Americans are going to suddenly stop driving to work tomorrow? Do you think people are going to stop driving the trucks to deliver the goods to the department stores? Not going to happen,” said the Massachusetts Democrat.
True, but I think it gets twisted when applied to a singular case (and I think you address that later in your post).
It isn't the added cost of a more secure capping procedure for that well that is the issue, it is the cost of capping every single well they drill (or make sure that NO captain is piloting improperly at ANY time on ANY tanker). Obviously, they don't know ahead of time which will be the problem, so the more secure procedures need to apply across the board. How many wells have been drilled w/o incident?
And this isn't defending them in any way. I do feel that when there is the potential for such extraordinary damage, that extraordinary measures, and extraordinary (multiple) back up plans need to be in place, and tested routinely.
I think it helps to personalize the issue (for illustration) to put the finger-pointing in perspective - consider this: Did everyone on this forum have their brakes inspected today (and every day) by a certified mechanic? Probably not, but if they fail a life close to us could be lost. But we take our chances, thinking that they 'seem' OK, and they were OK when they were last checked, etc... The cost of failure is very high indeed, yet we don't take extraordinary measures to prevent a problem.
-ERD50
while i agree this is a tradgedy, i would just like to point out that it is easy and quite confortable to point a finger while reaping the benefits of the very thing you are pointing at.
this is an incident that has never happened before. how do you practice for that? engineering something that has never been done takes time. more regs you say? maybe you should read the current ones and suggest some specific changes.
the president will put on a dog & pony show, but they won't stop oil production in the gulf. they want their 17.5%, in addition to proceeds from lease sales.