Poll: Self-Driving Cars

[Midpack]

All the already active thread is missing is a poll. So here it is.

If you want to elaborate, it probably makes more sense to keep it altogether on the existing thread http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f27/self-driving-cars-85740.html

And it wasn't an oversight to leave an "Other" option off...

 

[harley]

I have to decide how to vote based on the choices. I'm looking forward to self driving cars, but I will also want to drive myself when I feel like it. Self driving capability with manual override. If it was a simple yes or no, I'd say yes.

 

[Jack_Pine]

I have to decide how to vote based on the choices. I'm looking forward to self driving cars, but I will also want to drive myself when I feel like it. Self driving capability with manual override. If it was a simple yes or no, I'd say yes.

Could not have said it better.

 

[Midpack]

I am sure you'll have manual override for many years, but eventually you may not. Wanted to avoid splitting hairs with the poll, thanks for playing. I'm proud of us so far, more accepting than not. One day when we've all lost our licenses, this will be a good thing.

 

[donheff]

I have to decide how to vote based on the choices. I'm looking forward to self driving cars, but I will also want to drive myself when I feel like it. Self driving capability with manual override. If it was a simple yes or no, I'd say yes.

+1 I voted yes but have given zero thought to the cost thresholds so take the 80%/20% guide as a guesstimate. I also look forward to ebikes that give me the DIY or assist option when I get in my 80s. Not looking for self driving ebikes.

 

[Amethyst]

Nobody wants something that's marketed specifically to old people. I'm already imagining the ads showing happy family sitting on comfy padded bench around a table filled with snacks, some playing with their various screen devices, others pointing at sights through the car windows as they sail through the sunny countryside.

 

[harley]

+1 I voted yes but have given zero thought to the cost thresholds so take the 80%/20% guide as a guesstimate. I also look forward to ebikes that give me the DIY or assist option when I get in my 80s. Not looking for self driving ebikes.

We bought one of these - Liberty Trikes - back when they were still in their Kickstarter period. It's pretty cool. DW uses it, as she was feeling unsteady on her bike. The only negative is not having the leaning into the turn capability, but as long as you aren't going too fast (max speed ~11 mph) there's no problem. And it can turn on a dime.

I know they have electric bikes too. Mr. Money Mustache has written a few blog posts about them.

 

[Ready]

I have a Tesla Model 3 on order. Does that count as a self driving car? If so, I'm definitely excited about it.

 

[Texas Proud]

Since it is a binary choice I have to go with the one that is just over 50%... which is yes...

But, it is barely over 50%... I actually love driving a car at times... I have enjoyed owning a couple of cheap but nice driving cars, one being a manual tranny.... and I look forward to doing so for awhile...


However, there are times I just do not want to drive... and the self driving aspect sounds great... especially longer drives on a highway... or in stop and go traffic..

And lastly, when I get older and am more dangerous driving than riding along... I would want to have my freedom... and if I get dementia that the car knows how to take me home!!!

 

[NW-Bound]

I stopped caring about driving, actually about cars too, long ago, but I understand how some people like to drive, as I did when younger.

Here's a compromise. The computer can let you drive, but will override you if you do something unsafe. Aircraft with fly-by-wire technology have this feature for a while. For example, if the pilot pulls up sharply and go in a climb that can cause the aircraft to stall, the computer will ease down the maneuver. It will not let the pilot kill himself.

 

[Midpack]

I have a Tesla Model 3 on order. Does that count as a self driving car? If so, I'm definitely excited about it.

I'd be excited too, it will have level 2-3 features, but you know it's not a self driving car.

 

[NW-Bound]

When more self-driving cars appear on the road, driver education will be needed to teach people the distinction between different levels of the so-called "autopilots". Abuse of the systems by ignorant or careless drivers will not result in fewer accidents, but may cause more.

The following excerpt from Wikipedia defines different levels of sophistication of self-driving cars. For more, see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autonomous_car.

When heard about self-driving cars, people think of the Level 5, but that is far from what is on the market now, and will not be in the near future.

SAE automated vehicle classifications:

• Level 0: Automated system has no vehicle control, but may issue warnings.
• Level 1: Driver must be ready to take control at any time. Automated system may include features such as Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC), Parking Assistance with automated steering, and Lane Keeping Assistance (LKA) Type II in any combination.
• Level 2: The driver is obliged to detect objects and events and respond if the automated system fails to respond properly. The automated system executes accelerating, braking, and steering. The automated system can deactivate immediately upon takeover by the driver.
• Level 3: Within known, limited environments (such as freeways), the driver can safely turn their attention away from driving tasks, but must still be prepared to take control when needed.
• Level 4: The automated system can control the vehicle in all but a few environments such as severe weather. The driver must enable the automated system only when it is safe to do so. When enabled, driver attention is not required.
• Level 5: Other than setting the destination and starting the system, no human intervention is required. The automatic system can drive to any location where it is legal to drive and make its own decisions.

 

[MichaelB]

Not particularly relevant to either of these threads on self-driving autos, but the movie "Logan", currently in theaters, has an extended scene involving self-driving trucks. Very interesting, a nice visualization of how a highway driving might actually take place.

 

[Midpack]

When more self-driving cars appear on the road, driver education will be needed to teach people the distinction between different levels of the so-called "autopilots". Abuse of the systems by ignorant or careless drivers will not result in fewer accidents, but may cause more.

This again? In the other long back and forth thread, a poster provided preliminary evidence to the contrary. Do you have better evidence to support your claim, or just your conjecture? Ignorant drivers will cause more accidents in any vehicle, we can't assume they become ignorant based on the vehicle capabilities.

"NHTSA’s Office of Defects Investigation (ODI) reviewed crash rate data from Tesla’s vehicles before and after the introduction of Autosteer:

ODI analyzed mileage and airbag deployment data supplied by Tesla for all MY 2014 through 2016 Model S and 2016 Model X vehicles equipped with the Autopilot Technology Package, either installed in the vehicle when sold or through an OTA update, to calculate crash rates by miles traveled prior to and after Autopilot installation.

They came to the conclusion that “the data show that the Tesla vehicles crash rate dropped by almost 40 percent after Autosteer installation.”"

That 40 percent stat was just for autosteer, not the traffic-aware cruise control functions.

 

[NW-Bound]

I was willing to give the majority of Tesla car owners more credit than the idiots on youtube who post videos of "Look ma no hands".

I do not have as much confidence in the general public, the very same masses that people like you blame for the current accidents that happen everyday now.

PS. Why don't you go ask people around you, your wife, your friends, your neighbors if they know the difference between levels of self-driving automation? You don't think some education is needed?

 

[Midpack]

I was willing to give the majority of Tesla car owners more credit than the idiots on youtube who post videos of "Look ma no hands".

I do not have as much confidence in the general public, the very same masses that people like you blame for the current accidents that happen everyday now.

PS. Why don't you go ask people around you, your wife, your friends, your neighbors if they know the difference between levels of self-driving automation? You don't think some education is needed?

I don't need to ask, I agree most people don't know. But there will be some education one way or another. And there will still be "ignoramuses."

But I can't picture how your idea of training people thru driver education to recognize level 0 thru level 5 cars would work - unless every car has to have stickers on all sides with a 0 through 5 in big letters. What exactly did you picture?

I have a few close friends who are vigorously opposed to self-driving cars. Many people posting here don't know the various levels, I didn't know them all until a few days ago. They are convinced they're safer than any self-driving car could ever be. I'm convinced they don't have any idea what they're talking about, I have some preliminary data on my side **. They have none, and don't care - 'my mind is made up, don't bother me with the facts.' We've all seen it all our lives. **
http://www.sciencealert.com/driverless-cars-could-reduce-traffic-fatalities-by-up-to-90-says-report

This chart illustrates the levels best for me:

 

[easysurfer]

I didn't vote as there was no other option.

Well, not for that reason, but I'm neutral about looking forward to vs feeling strongly against self-driving cars.

Once the technology is perfected enough, I wouldn't be apprehensive of sitting in one to go to point A to point B. Yet at the same time, all things considered, I don't mind the necessary evil of driving.

 

[Midpack]

I am not suggesting this is definitive, no one knows yet, just one writer's view of how the self-driving car timeline plays out. Link in post above.

 

[NW-Bound]

The "education" I was talking about does not have to be a formal training. Perhaps the public awareness will come slowly with time, but the amount of ignorance I see out there is scary. People's attributing all kinds of wonderfulness to the Tesla "autopilot" that sometimes cannot see the broadside of a barn scares the hell out of me. And we are talking about giving this to the masses?

About stickers on a car to tell what level of self-driving it has, you bring up a very good point. Say, how do I know what this rental car can do? Or what if I rent a car with less capability than my own car, and I know it, but may just forget in a moment and that can cost me or somebody else's life or limb? Tough luck?

See how there are complications that need to be work out. Hence, most car makers strive to get Level 4, because they do not know how to deal with these ramifications.

 

[NW-Bound]

... Once the technology is perfected enough, I wouldn't be apprehensive of sitting in one to go to point A to point B. Yet at the same time, all things considered, I don't mind the necessary evil of driving.

I think when people object to self-driving cars, they have the same feeling. And rushing to release this feature in its infancy is not going to help change their mind.

About Midpack's feeling passionate about this subject, that people he knows vehemently decry self-driving cars, I would like to point out something.

When the real autonomous car arrives, I mean one of at least to Level 4 automation, people will see that they are in use safely, and they will adopt it.

Or, they become old and invalid, and have to use one as there's no way they can drive.

Or, they are already dead, and miss out on this technological marvel.

Frankly, I would be more excited with medical advances than self-driving cars, or big 3-d TV screens, or superduper cell phones. I can pay for an Uber car, but there are diseases out there that even being a billionaire will not get you a cure. That, I am afraid about more.

 

[Sojourner]

I am not suggesting this is definitive, no one knows yet, just one writer's view of how the self-driving car timeline plays out. Link in post above.

Hmm... interesting that this chart seems to be predicting widespread adoption of fully-autonomous vehicles by about 2037. If I recall correctly, that's within a few years of the date of "the singularity" originally predicted by Ray Kurzweil about ten years ago. I think he's recently revised it to 2045, though.

 

[dixonge]

This whole discussion keeps reminding me of this song:

"Run like the wind
As excitement shivers up and down my spine
Down in his barn
My uncle preserved for me an old machine –

For fifty-odd years
To keep it as new has been his dearest dream
I strip away the old debris, that hides a shining car

A brilliant red Barchetta, from a better, vanished time
Fire up the willing engine, responding with a roar!
Tires spitting gravel, I commit my weekly crime…

Wind in my hair –
Shifting and drifting –
Mechanical music
Adrenalin surge –

Well-weathered leather
Hot metal and oil
The scented country air
Sunlight on chrome
The blur of the landscape
Every nerve aware"

Rush - Red Barchetta

 

[JoeWras]

The graph that Midpack posted of automated car acceptance is a little more realistic than many I see, but I still think it is too optimistic.

I still think reliable level 5 is beyond 2050. Level 4 is more in grasp.

And I have just two words to say:

Pavement markings

Apparently our DOT/City here in Raleigh have decided to give up on marking the pavement. Double-left turn lanes are now a nightmare. The little "hash marks" to help cars navigate this are all gone in most of the intersections I traverse. Drivers can't deal with it. If you are in the left lane of a 2 turner, there's a good chance the driver next to you will force you into oncoming traffic.

Until our governments decide to support self driving cars, the technology is going to suffer. Start with painting some $%^! lines already!

If they can't afford to support 3000 year old technology (lane painting), how on earth will they get the money for smart sensors, intelligent signals, etc?

 

[unclemick]

Barn(aka metal farm building) a 1983 454 Chevy four barrel carb pickup gathering dust lusting for a blower.

And saving my RMD pennies and dimes for the appropriate TESLA model suitable to a 74 year old with 23 years of ER.



heh heh heh - Grin.

 

[NW-Bound]

Cars do not excite me, so I do not follow what promises car manufacturers are making to know what they say. It seems to me many people expect a Level 5 in a few years. Or they may not care and use them like Level 4 or 5 anyway.

About dixonge's song, when true autonomous cars arrive, sure you can still have wind in your hair, a stick shift for you to play with (but it is not connected to anything), a gas pedal that will generate the sound "Vrooom, vrooom", but that's all it does.

In other words, you will be like a kid driving a coin-operated toy car in front of the supermarkets, while a computer does the real driving.