The election

[Traveler]

Bush vs Kerry. Who will win and why? And who do you think is ultimately better for most early retirees? Just curious so weigh in.

 

[John Galt]

I see it as a dead heat with Nader MAYBE tipping
it to Bush. I also think the election may turn on
some relatively insignificant event between now and
November. I have no idea which one would most benefit
retirees. I prefer Bush, but that's based my my extreme right wing tilt and not much else.

John Galt

 

[Cut-Throat]

I see it as Kerry gaining and ultimately winning. The votes will be counted correctly this time and the Supreme Court will not have a chance to appoint their candidate.

I think the Democratic Party is the best for retiree's as they will be looking out for Social Security, Veterans Benefits and Medicare. Bush has already hinted at tampering with SS and said that it won't affect today's retirees (meaning those that are 65+) - which does not include a lot of us here. These are all Democratic Programs enacted by FDR, to keep folks out of the soup kitchens.

Pensions have been virtually eliminated and Wages mostly stagnant with the argument that we have to compete with the rest of the world. To really compete with the rest of the World our middle class would have to have wages like China and India. And I really don't think we would like to live in countries like those. We will need those Social Programs now more than ever.

 

[malakito]

Traveler,

I have my own theory about how people make predictions. There are basically two methods that most people use:

1. Predict what you want or hope to see happen.
2. Predict based on recent trends.

I've caught myself using the above methods and so I'll try to avoid that mistake here.

The mainstream media seems to be reporting Senator Kerry with a slight lead in the popular vote, but of course it is the electoral college that matters as 2000 showed. There are a few sites out there that attempt to predict which way each state will go and I would look at those as the best possible data. As I recall, Senator Kerry leads slightly there as well but there is a large enough contingent of states which are undecided that it really could go either way.

I personally have wondered how closely the actual popular vote in years past has matched the polling results just prior to the elections. IOW, do people actual vote in the same way as the polls say they will? Does anyone know that information?

malakito.

 

[Michael]

Bush has already hinted at tampering with SS

Scott Burns book says the Bush's commission on SS recommends eliminating the inflation adjust for the boomers. Then the fed can just inflate the problem away. With future benefits fixed at today's numbers, inflation will make SS more or less worthless before the tail end of the boomers collect the first dime.

 

[Michael]

And who do you think is ultimately better for most early retirees?

I don't know who will win, but Kerry might be better for any early retirees who belonged to a union. Bush hates unions, and tries very hard to reduce or eliminate any retiree benefits for union members. When several large companies folded, his comment was that retiree benefits were a sweet heart deal negotiated by the union. He lobbied hard to prevent any help for the retirees of the companies.

OTOH, Bush would probably be better for the high ranking executive retirees because he loves them. It is sort of like I heard President Nixon say once. He said of people in power that you reward your friends, and punish your enemies if you can. Unions don't support Bush, and corporate executives mostly do. Each candidate is better for some groups, and a nightmare for others.

 

[unclemick]

And then there's the U.S. Congress!
Any Mark Twain fans out there with a ready quote?

 

[Nords]

Well, that Mark Twain quote would be...

... "America is a nation without a distinct criminal class, with the possible exception of Congress."

No regrets-- I still think putting them in Congress is cheaper than incarceration.

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

"Pro is to con as progress is to congress" -- Lazarus Long

"What if you were an idiot, and what if you were a member of Congress? But I repeat myself." -- Mark Twain

As far as who will win, I'm quite sure that either way, we'll be sorry.

I dont care much for Bush's folks for two reasons. One is that I see my privacy and civil rights slipping away for no good reason, and the other is the fair number of absolute lies and deceptions being passed out to us as though we were all idiots. I love watching "the daily show with john stewart" where he runs a series of clips with Bush and Cheney saying "I never said xxx" followed by a clip of them saying exactly that. I know politicians lie for a living, but can it at least be convincing or hard to prove?

On the other hand, I know John Kerry and he's a politicians politician...a big bag of hot air...an empty suit...theres no 'there' there. He's just one big series of empty slogans. Of course, the Dems didnt seem to have anyone else that wowed me. Maybe Al Sharpton...I think he'd suck as a president but it'd be pretty funny to watch. Kucinich might have made an interesting president, and he'd have been equally interesting to observe. You could just see the first time he's over in europe attending a dinner for heads of state and he'd walk in, everyone would be sitting down, and there'd be this high chair sitting in his spot. All the various presidents and premiers snorking and trying not to burst out laughing.

Its possible that Nader will screw it all up again, but then again it seems most people will have to write him in.

I'd like to have Clinton back again. Not so much for his political skills but just for the drama. It was like watching an episode of "batman". You just kept waiting to see what kind of jam he was going to get into and how he was going to get out of it.

 

[arrete]

Maybe Al Sharpton...I think he'd suck as a president but it'd be pretty funny to watch. Kucinich might have made an interesting president, and he'd have been equally interesting to observe.

Gee, you left out Jesse Ventura. He'd be pretty wacky to watch also.

I'm not sure I'd live through any of the above, though.

arrete

 

[John Galt]

I think we should look toward 2008, amend the
constitution and elect "Da Governator" with Jesse
Ventura as VP. They made a movie together that turned
out pretty good, and let's face it. They could hardly do worse at running the country. Besides, wouldn't you love to see them debating
and calling the other side "girlie men"?

John Galt

 

[Tax Expert]

I voted for Clinton twice because I thought he pointed the country in the right economic direction, and I would vote for Clinton again. I voted for Gore because I thought he was the smarter and better man to be president. However, this time I will vote for Bush because he (or should I say his team) has done a great job in lowering taxes for everyone and keeping the economy from tanking in spite of the devastation to our resources (time and money) caused by 9/11. There have also been 2 wars won under his watch (or at the very least he has operated the cancer out of those two countries and hopefully it won't come back). Kerry may be a better speaker than Bush, but he is all talk and no action (what has he done for Massachusetts?), although I thank him for his military service to our country.

 

[wabmester]

Bush vs Kerry. Who will win and why?

Bush will single-handedly capture bin Laden while riding horseback in Afghanistan,  boosting his approval rating by 18 points.  But back on the ranch, he'll fall off a scooter, resulting in a nasty scar on his upper lip.   If you squint a little, the scar will make him look a bit like the Frito Bandito, and this unfortunate comic-sinister appearance will cost him the election to a well-groomed Kerry.

And who do you think is ultimately better for most early retirees?

The guy who keeps taxes low for the next 50 years, keeps the stock market partying like it's 1999, and who makes everybody in the world love us and warmly welcome us when we come to visit.

 

[yelnad]

"There have also been 2 wars won under his watch (or at the very least he has operated the cancer out of those two countries and hopefully it won't come back)."

HA! This is the main reason I won't vote for Bush.

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

I wouldnt be surprised to find that they have bin laden in a freezer somewhere, with a plan to defrost him and drop him in front of a marine batallion six days before the election...

 

[TheOtherFrankSinatra]

SInatraRe: The election

"There have also been 2 wars won under his watch (or at the very least he has operated the cancer out of those two countries and hopefully it won't come back)."

That's bullshit. No wars have been won. He has said himself the "War on Terr'a" will last a long time. That means forever, so's he can use war as an excuse for everything and everything as an excuse for more war. So we haven't won that war.

We haven't won in Afghanastan. We're still fighting there. The third war he started himself and we haven't won there either.

He abandonbd the important, necessary war (Afghanastan) and wasted resources and the live sof people that didn't have rich parents by starting an unnecessary war in Iraq for... gee I wonder what the **** he started THAT war for?

Going around starting wars just so you can say "Hey! I'm a WARTIME president!" is a bit disingenuous.

 

[MJ]

Re: SInatraRe: The election

Going around starting wars just so you can say "Hey! I'm a WARTIME president!" is a bit disingenuous.

and

extremely dangerous, costly and unpatriotic except for the 1% to 3% "true" patriotic Americans that love Dubya !

MJ :-/

 

[yelnad]

Unfortunately, I think the number is higher than 3%. :-/

 

[unclemick]

The one I hear most often - about 45/45 hard core - with only 10% in play, including the Nader supporters. Basically the 'independants and Naderites' get romanced and us plain old DEMs/REPs are taken for granted.

 

[johnblake]

Bush vs Kerry. Who will win and why? And who do you think is ultimately better for most early retirees? Just curious so weigh in.

Kerry will win because Bush has too many failures to explain -- Iraq, Afganistan, prisoner abuse/torture, jobs, and most importantly, the failure of the republicans to control government spending (which has grown 2x as fast under Bush when compared w/ Clinton). Fiscal conservatives and libertarians will stay home on election day. Bush will emphasize 'values' and Kerry will hammer him on 'results'.

Bush's tax cuts provided a much needed stimulus, and helped GDP growth, but he hasn't shown any restraint when it comes to spending. This has caused the deficit to grow, weakening the dollar, and will put pressure on interest rates -- all bad for ER. Both Reagan and Bush41 raised taxes after their initial tax cuts. If Bush and the republican congress could control spending, they'd probably be better for ERs.

 

[John Galt]

Hey John Blake! Good post. I am basically a
libertarian, and I stay home EVERY election day.

John Galt

 

[Brat]

TH- love your attitude!!

Bush and his minions scare me. I don't think they have the interest of the citizens as a whole as their primary concern. They, and their supporters, lie and confabulate worse than the Nixon bunch.

If the current administration continues in office I believe that the deficits will grow even larger because we will be paying for Bush's international adventures and tax breaks for the rich.

Administrations on both sides of the isle have made short-sighted foreign policy decisions over the last 40 years in the Middle East. However, only with a change in leadership will we have a chance to rally others near term to a resolution that considers the needs of all.

Al Sharpton is a great social commentator. If he could play the piano he could do a revival of That-Was-The-Week-That-Was.

 

[unclemick]

Bush is headed to a "Harry Truman' one term - but foreign policy will be roughly set for the next 30 yrs. The blue dog Dems and the fiscal Repub.s will write the ship with a little boost from Adam Smith's 'invisible hand' aka the financial markets. De Gaul and the Norwegian Widow shall be proved right once again. Is this a great country or what? It just keeps getting better and better - and I'm a pesimist.

 

[charlie]

I have been out of town for awhile and was horrified
to find that alien body snatchers have taken over
most of my ER friends. Being a TEXAN, you know
where my sentiments lie.

A proud Republican and conservative to the core ....

Charlie

 

[wabmester]

Stop me if you've seen this one already:

http://www.jibjab.com