The future of jobs - an opinion

[GrayHare]

I remember when automation was supposed to shorten our work week to 32 hours.

What happened to that?

Those who FIRE have effectively worked shorter weeks. Rather than spread out their shorter workweeks through age 65, they have chosen to work longer weeks so they could fund many later weeks of 0 work hours.

 

[FUEGO]

I remember when automation was supposed to shorten our work week to 32 hours.

What happened to that?

The job is now a 40 hour/week job that produces 25% more than the 32 hours/wk job. No extra pay though!

 

[donheff]

It seems to me that very low skill, piece work type jobs are being automated away and parts of more skilled jobs (e.g. the technicians mentioned in the OP) are vulnerable to improving AI. But, at the same time new jobs seem to develop to supplement the new tech. Each new piece of advanced tech seems to need humans to oversee it. Sometimes, this involves less humans and sometimes more. At the same time all sorts of skilled and unskilled service industries pop up that need people.

Long term, I suspect intelligent machines may take over much of what we call work. But that will take generations and could open up opportunities for advanced leisure for the future unchained homo sapiens.

 

[target2019]

If giving advice to someone younger, i'd ask them which rung of the ladder they want to stay on. If their goal is to sit on one rung and get rich, they may find the ladder shortened one day, and their rung is gone.

Have to climb the ladder of education.

 

[Lakewood90712]

Even with automation and robotics , there are far more manufacturing then ever jobs to feed the appetite of the west for cheap consumer goods .

The thing is , they are largely in China. Many of those jobs overseas are high tech , skilled , in modern factories , with good compensation , for the local area , and many are sweatshop/grueling/dangerous jobs, like existed in the US and Briton in the 19th century. Some are even labor camps for prisoners. Even a robot can't compete with forced labor.

None of the jobs , the tech, or low skill are ever coming back.

Find a "Guberment job" of some kind if you are not a freelancer type, is the best advise I would give to someone entering the workforce.

 

[RonBoyd]

Five Revolutions that Will Shape the Future of Marketing

Revolution #3: Artificial Intelligence Becomes Less . . . Artificial

Creativity and imagination are often thought of as the one realm that computers can never conquer, because the inner workings of the mind are what make humans unique. But it is already possible to control a computer with our thoughts alone, and commercials for IBM’s Watson computer are now touting its ability to generate new ideas — helping chefs develop original new recipes, for instance — using data to spark creative inspiration.

As artificial intelligence continues to evolve and improve — powered by the combination of Big Data, the Internet of Things, and always-connected devices tied to people’s location and activities (e.g., the Apple Watch) — it will begin to behave more and more like a giant alternative brain, one that rivals and surpasses humans in many ways. Machines already do most jobs that involve repetitive motion. When machines start replacing people who use their imagination for a living — writers, designers, architects, engineers, teachers, etc. — they won’t just be taking better jobs, they’ll be challenging what it means to be human.

 

[jerome len]

We'll have more jobs......different jobs! Right here in America.

Why? We innovate, we adjust, the value of the dollar adjusts....we have the freedom to create.....we buy more.....more electronic toys.....larger houses with more bathrooms, family room, TV sets......we travel more.....hotel, restaurant workers....

I think back when I was a kid.....one car.....twice a year to a restaurant....Dad only had two weeks vacation.....700 square foot home....one bathroom......one TV set. And, that was the norm in my middle class neighborhood and my Dad was an electricion.....highly skilled employee.

We'll have downturns, jobs will go overseas, and we'll sell more overseas. It is a world economy but we innovate faster than the rest of the world and everything will be different but this will remain the best place in the world to live, work and retire!!!!!!

 

[Amethyst]

Plumbers and chefs will probably still be working in 30 years.

Amethyst

 

[Senator]

We'll have more jobs......different jobs! Right here in America.

I can only hope you are right, but they are not the types of jobs you are expecting If the playing field was the same between the USA and foreign countries, I would agree, unfortunately, it is not.

We are 100% headed for global equalization of wages. Other countries have Child labor, prison labor, the ability to just throw 'junk' in the ocean stream and rivers, and pollute the air. They can also manipulate the currency. That is why I say to the Fed, print as much as you can, and pay off all the USA debt.

I buy a TV made in China, and five years later it is junk. The Chinese buy a USA bond, and five years later it is junk. Even trade.

Until we have a tariff on goods and services produced in a way that would be a violation of our laws, and prison sentences for CEOs that allow their companies to subcontract with companies that do, the USA is headed for a service economy. And an economy that is closer to third word than what we have today. It may take 50 years, but we will get there. Look at demographic trends and wage trends, it is plain as day.

I would advise someone to enter the trades, save as much as they can, and get FI as early as possible. Use all of the business tax advantages that are available. Or get a Government job.

There would not be near as much wage disparity if immigration laws were enforced, and visa's were not given to high tech workers. Companies would be forced to train and hire here.

And if you think a company would just move overseas, let them. Just make sure the same tariffs and tax laws apply.

Employees need to be mobile, switching jobs and careers at a whim, to be able to compete. The trades will allow that more than any other occupation.

None of the jobs , the tech, or low skill are ever coming back.

+++1

 

[dallas27]

I've never understood the job complaints. I quit college sophomore year because recruiters kept calling me offering me jobs ('98). I have no degree, but have continually educated my self (industry certifications) and I have pretty much had a full time job plus 1-2 side gigs constantly since I was 20 years old. I've worked my butt off always, some employers have taken advantage of that, and I moved on to bigger and better. I've burnt more than a couple bridges, when I felt my boss was a n incompetent boob, but that has just kept me looking forward instead of back.

I quit most recently in January this year, in the morning. I had planned to take 6 months off and reboot. By 5pm I had an unexpected offer that was too good to turn down.

I fully believe that it's rough out there for a lot of folks, but I just don't have reference point for it in order to understand. Never in my career have I not seen a way to make more money by increasing a skill, or hustling more than the entitled graduate next to me. I make more money now than I ever though was possible. I've doubled my income 3-4 times since that first job out of college when I was already making as much as my parents.

 

[travelover]

I've never understood the job complaints. I quit college sophomore year because recruiters kept calling me offering me jobs ('98). I have no degree, but have continually educated my self (industry certifications) and I have pretty much had a full time job plus 1-2 side gigs constantly since I was 20 years old. I've worked my butt off always, some employers have taken advantage of that, and I moved on to bigger and better. I've burnt more than a couple bridges, when I felt my boss was a n incompetent boob, but that has just kept me looking forward instead of back.

I quit most recently in January this year, in the morning. I had planned to take 6 months off and reboot. By 5pm I had an unexpected offer that was too good to turn down.

I fully believe that it's rough out there for a lot of folks, but I just don't have reference point for it in order to understand. Never in my career have I not seen a way to make more money by increasing a skill, or hustling more than the entitled graduate next to me. I make more money now than I ever though was possible. I've doubled my income 3-4 times since that first job out of college when I was already making as much as my parents.

And yet, in spite of it all, you have remained humble.

 

[Independent]

I've never understood the job complaints. I quit college sophomore year because recruiters kept calling me offering me jobs ('98). I have no degree, but have continually educated my self (industry certifications) and I have pretty much had a full time job plus 1-2 side gigs constantly since I was 20 years old. I've worked my butt off always, some employers have taken advantage of that, and I moved on to bigger and better. I've burnt more than a couple bridges, when I felt my boss was a n incompetent boob, but that has just kept me looking forward instead of back.

I quit most recently in January this year, in the morning. I had planned to take 6 months off and reboot. By 5pm I had an unexpected offer that was too good to turn down.

I fully believe that it's rough out there for a lot of folks, but I just don't have reference point for it in order to understand. Never in my career have I not seen a way to make more money by increasing a skill, or hustling more than the entitled graduate next to me. I make more money now than I ever though was possible. I've doubled my income 3-4 times since that first job out of college when I was already making as much as my parents.

For those of us with kids in HS, would you mind being a little more specific about what you could do at age 20 that had your phone ringing constantly?
And, maybe something about the "industry certifications" that have helped you since?

 

[dallas27]

For those of us with kids in HS, would you mind being a little more specific about what you could do at age 20 that had your phone ringing constantly?
And, maybe something about the "industry certifications" that have helped you since?

I was into computers. Went into college thinking I would be a chemical engineer, but quickly discovered the power of the internet and became obsessed/good with them. You have to realize, that was the late 90's. If you could plug in a computer, you pretty much could find a job before Y2K. So recruiters were bloodthirsty for any warm body they could find, demand was elastic, supply limited.

re:certs - just standard certifications from Microsoft, Cisco, SAP, etc.

But for you kids - or anyones, they need to follow their interests. It's tough to be good at something you are not interested in. Of course, you need to find an interest that has income potential. I tell my HS students (coach) the same thing.


But to this day, there are many areas in IT that I can't hire people, because no one wants to learn it. That's why IT is mainly Asians and Indians being trained en masse overseas, then immigrating to the US on visa. It's ridiculous the amount of americans I can explain that with a few years hard working training up they can make 100-150 an hour, but they just won't lift a finger.