What are you doing to survive the Bird Flu......

[samclem]

I'm not sure I understand the "bah humbuggery" about bird flu. The reason it could be a big deal is, i think, simple:
1) The mortality among humans who actually contract flu is very high (better than 20%). Compare this to the run-of-the-mill flu that we pass around every year (low mortality) . This is a fact.
2) Influenza has a proven ability to migrate cross-species and become infectious to humans. This happens routinely--the flu we pass around every year generally arises from a flu virus in non-human populations that crosses over into the human population. (This often happens when a person sick with last year's flu is exposed to an animal flu strain. The viruses basically dump their respective genetic material into the nucleus of the cells of the infected person, where they hijack the replication mechanism to produce copies of themselves. If a person "catches" two different viruses at the same time, there's a fair chance that the resulting viruses will have swapped some genetic material while in the poor guy's cells. The possible result--a new disease that is communicable between people but has the properties of the flu that formerly existed only in non-human animals). In a given year, thousands of people might be exposed to BOTH communicable flu and animal starins (including H5N). The "right" recombination only as to happen one time for a pandemic to begin.

With the H5N virus we have a flu that can cause relatively high human mortality and only needs to attain the ability to cross over into the human population. Oh, and it now thrives in hosts that migrate internationaly AND live in close proximity to humans. Experts who know seem to believe this threat is considerable, and I trust their expertise in these issues more than my own ability to somehow deduce the threat myself.

I've heard about power and water being shut off in the event of bird flu. Why would that be a possibility? Couldn't we always boil water for 5 min. to kill the virii?

The problem sn't transmission of the virus through te water The problem is that the folks at the waterworks, electric company, your gas station, the supermarket won't come to work if this is a nasty bug. Everyone will be avoiding other folks, and that means not going to work. I wonder if some type of bizzare "non-contact economy" might develop in short order--gas will be pay at the pump only, the guy at the 7-11 will sell you a gal of milk ($20) through the window slot, but he'll only take credit cards, etc)

 

[wabmester]

   1) The mortality among humans who actually contract flu is very high (better than 20%).  Compare this to the run-of-the-mill flu that we pass around every year (low mortality) .  

High mortality means that the bug is killing its host, and its means of transmission.    That's why pandemics are so rare.    You need the right combination of something deadly + allows the host to live long enough to spread the bug + infects part of the body that makes it easy to spread.

Most flu bugs infect the upper-respiratory tract where they can easily become airborne and/or spread to surfaces.    If this thing infects deep lung tissue, for example, it's not going to spread as easily as a cold.

If it mutates so that it is more easily spread, I think chances are good that it will also be less harmful.

 

[Nords]

Eh, you doomsayers are probably right-- human transmission has already happened.

"Experts said there could have been limited human-to-human transmission in this cluster case."

Spouse has spent the last couple days at a PACOM "wargame" of the military's response to pandemic influenza. Don't worry about the terminology-- "wargame" reflects a limited vocabulary creativity, not any actual influenza response initiatives or hygiene/sanitation planning.

The bad news is that if this tabletop exercise was any indication, you want the military handling your pandemic influenza response about as much as you want it handled by your helpful governmental agencies.

The good news is that the 1918 pandemic was greatly assisted by the military's policy of transferring their people around, despite the warnings of their own doctors. The influenza is believed most dangerous to those in the age group 18-40, and it happens pretty quickly to them after infection. Coincidentally this is the highest population group in the U.S. military. When today's H5N1 hits a military base, movement will be halted under pain of UCMJ. The military does not want to be accused of spreading the problem and can't afford to be crippled by it.

Spouse says that the best thing to do appears to be to lock your doors, wash your hands, and hunker down with a can of tuna fish. Don't worry about Tamiflu or even face masks. If you can handle a week or two at home alone with your family, then that wave of influenza will pass by and give you a chance to restock before the next wave passes through.

Oh, and while you're waiting for the "all clear" to sound, please don't feed the birds. It only facilitates the virus' mutuation.

I'm buying stock in tuna canners and in the companies making those waterless hand sanitizers.

 

[wabmester]

Good article on H5N1 at Wikipedia.

H5N1 as an avian virus preferentially binds to what are known as α2,3 galactose receptors, which populate the avian respiratory tract from the nose to the lungs. These receptors are virtually absent in humans, occurring only in and around the alveoli, structures deep in the lungs where oxygen is passed to the blood. Therefore, the virus is not easily expelled by coughing and sneezing, the usual route of transmission.

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

That's not the thinking among scientists and guys that have actually been to Medical School.

Was there a sale on wiseguy pills at trader joes and i missed it?

 

[razztazz]

That's not the thinking among scientists and guys that have actually been to Medical School.

And can therefore make a lot of money jerking people off by impressing them wth their clairvoyance

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

That was my first reply, but I didnt wanna look like I didnt miss the sale after all

 

[samclem]

Good article on H5N1 at Wikipedia.

H5N1 as an avian virus preferentially binds to what are known as α2,3 galactose receptors, which populate the avian respiratory tract from the nose to the lungs. These receptors are virtually absent in humans, occurring only in and around the alveoli, structures deep in the lungs where oxygen is passed to the blood. Therefore, the virus is not easily expelled by coughing and sneezing, the usual route of transmission.

wab,

Thanks for the link to the wikipedia article. The article contained many nits-o-info that, to me, justified the concern of the the medical/publc health community over this issue. We all understand that H5N1 isn't easily transmitted between humans, but that's the case with many of the flu viruses that eventualy do evolve to attain high contagion in human populations. Of course, maybe the majority of virologists, epidemiologists, and public health experts are wrong. I hope so.

 

[wabmester]

We all understand that H5N1 isn't easily transmitted between humans, but that's the case with many of the flu viruses that eventualy do evolve to attain high contagion in human populations.  Of course, maybe the majority of virologists, epidemiologists, and public health experts are wrong.  I hope so.

What exactly are all these experts predicting?    I really don't have the ability to analyze the threat myself, so I really want to know.   Here's my simple-minded question:

If this thing kills by infecting deep lung tissue, that means it's not easily transmitted, right?    And if it mutates so that it is easily transmitted, doesn't that mean that the new strain won't be infecting deep lung tissue and won't be as lethal?

What does a virus look like that is lethal and easily transmitted?

My understanding of the 1918 pandemic was that the real killers were secondary infections (like pneumonia).   I assume that we're better prepared with antibiotics today.   Maybe we need the combination of a nasty virus and a resistant bacteria to get us into real trouble.

 

[Nords]

My understanding of the 1918 pandemic was that the real killers were secondary infections (like pneumonia).   I assume that we're better prepared with antibiotics today.   Maybe we need the combination of a nasty virus and a resistant bacteria to get us into real trouble.

Read "The Great Influenza". The problem was that immune systems tended to hyper-react by generating large numbers of antibodies to kill the virus. People's lungs were being destroyed by immune-system response as they drowned in their own fluids. The response was worst in those with the healthiest and best-developed immune systems-- teenagers & young adults. It's the immune-system equivalent to dying of an asthma attack.

I'm not aware of antibiotics that can kill a virus. Bacteria, sure, but not viruses. About all you can do with a virus is treat the symptoms or come up with a vaccine-- some sort of magic bullet.

Medical science has spent the last century developing magic bullets, and the art of "treating the symptoms" has declined. Some early 20th-century physicians actually had higher survival rates for their pneumonia patients than their 21st-century counterparts.

 

[wabmester]

I'm not aware of antibiotics that can kill a virus.

I was referring to the treatment for secondary bacterial infections, but of course there are anti-viral drugs today like Tamiflu as well.

 

[OldAgePensioner]

I knew a very respected Senior Scientist at Aerospace Corporation in El Segundo, CA who was so concerned about the computer problems during the year 2000, that he bought a piece of land in Idaho in a fairly remote area and spent lots of cash building a survival home.

I don't know many details but evidently he worked out plans to defend it against desperate people made homeless by the Y2K disaster.

He literally spent most of his spare time and money on it. When he talked about it with some of us over at the base in England we would all wonder about his sanity.

So my plan for the fowl flu is to keep tabs on when he moves there and hijack his him and steal his place.