Moemg
Gone but not forgotten
There is a lot of money on the sidelines so if the market starts to rally these people will return so I'm betting on making some money this year . It will basically be two steps forward and one back .
2009 Predictions
- Thread starter clifp
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ls99
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At the end of 2009 the DOW will still be the DOW.
NW-Bound
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I hope so too. From BusinessWeek, 1/12/09, p.6:
$8.85 trillion: the amount Americans have in cash and cash equivalents at the end of November. That's equal to 74% of the combined market value of the S&P 500, the highest since 1990.
Now, there's talk about a trillion dollar stimulus, on top of the existing bailout. More money coming our way. A trillion here, a trillion there. We are talking more than small change here. I have said before about cash: there's more where that comes from. Seems like an infinite supply, which it is.
Well, went thru this in the last Bear Market.. Back then it was Tech bubble that destroyed things, this Time it's The RE market ...
If they get the RE market straightened out just enough by spring? Look out..Things will Skyrocket regardless of what Co.'s are doing..
Why? Human Nature.. Homes worth more, they will spend more.. most are too dumb to Not use their homes for Equity Loans to buy Toys-They want it now and still do..
And thus It will be Buy, Buy, buy again..
The yrs following? Reits will drive the market again..for the Middle and Upper Class
There is a ton of $ pent up by them , some saying over $10 Trillion now just waiting to buy.. As for Debt ? Who cares if we have a $1 Trillion Debt.. Divide that by the 150 million taxpayers topay it off and it's chump change.. Ask youreslf - Would you be willing to pay $5,000 in added taxes to Keep your $60,000 Yr Job? Or loose your job? Would be willing to pay another 5% in Captial Gains Taxes to Get your Savings Investment Portfolio back to even again? And then to make 10% a yr fwd..?
And ask those Unemployed that were making $40k yr or less.." Would you be willing to pay 5% more In taxes to get your Job back?"
In a Heartbeat..
everything is justifiable..Just has to be presented in the right way and Looks like Pres. Obama is the guy to do it..
I hope so... Counting on it..
If they get the RE market straightened out just enough by spring? Look out..Things will Skyrocket regardless of what Co.'s are doing..
Why? Human Nature.. Homes worth more, they will spend more.. most are too dumb to Not use their homes for Equity Loans to buy Toys-They want it now and still do..
And thus It will be Buy, Buy, buy again..
The yrs following? Reits will drive the market again..for the Middle and Upper Class
There is a ton of $ pent up by them , some saying over $10 Trillion now just waiting to buy.. As for Debt ? Who cares if we have a $1 Trillion Debt.. Divide that by the 150 million taxpayers topay it off and it's chump change.. Ask youreslf - Would you be willing to pay $5,000 in added taxes to Keep your $60,000 Yr Job? Or loose your job? Would be willing to pay another 5% in Captial Gains Taxes to Get your Savings Investment Portfolio back to even again? And then to make 10% a yr fwd..?
And ask those Unemployed that were making $40k yr or less.." Would you be willing to pay 5% more In taxes to get your Job back?"
In a Heartbeat..
everything is justifiable..Just has to be presented in the right way and Looks like Pres. Obama is the guy to do it..
I hope so... Counting on it..
My predictions for 2009
The Cubs will win the world series
My kids will be thankful for all I have done for them
My wife will appreciate me
President Obama will fix all our problems
Ex-president Bush will admit he was wrong
and...
The Dow will rise 25%
The Cubs will win the world series
My kids will be thankful for all I have done for them
My wife will appreciate me
President Obama will fix all our problems
Ex-president Bush will admit he was wrong
and...
The Dow will rise 25%
ziggy29
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The last couple of days have been our punishment for this poll's results being too bullish!
NW-Bound
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"Please God, just one more bubble" -- Bumper Sticker
So far, I do much better this time than the last bubble in 2000-2003 tech burst, when I lost 50%. Please note the word "so far". A cautious guy, I always qualify my claims.
FinanceDude
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If the Dow closes at 9500 by 12/31/09, I will be more than happy.
OP
OP
clifp
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Well the prize for the closest Dow and S&P still remains to be given.
FinanceDude prediction of Dow 9500 is looking pretty good.
However, after today's announcement about Paula I think I am great shape for the best non financial predictions.
audreyh1
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Congrats clifp! Amazing Prediction 
audreyh1
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REWahoo
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FD announced he has nothing more to say on the forum, so don't expect a reply...
audreyh1
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Notmuchlonger
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I voted 14k. Im an optimist. Or slightly out of touch
Damn looks like Ill be wrong . Just because its 9500 now doesn't mean it cant go back down.
audreyh1
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Time to bump this poll up too. I'm still in the DOW 11000 cheering section.
Audrey
Audrey
W2R
Moderator Emeritus
Why? We've still got over two months before the end of 2009, when this poll will apply... the Dow could still go down to 2350 by then!
W2R
Moderator Emeritus
So far it looks like you may finally be wrong.
Maybe not!! We've still got over 1/6th of a year to go for this poll.
As volatile as things have been over the past year, I wouldn't assume anything this early.
audreyh1
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Notmuchlonger
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I voted 14k. Im an optimist. Or slightly out of touch
Damn only 4k off so far.
audreyh1
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Hey - DOW 11,000 was my guess in Jan, and it's still good enough for me!Why? We've still got over two months before the end of 2009, when this poll will apply... the Dow could still go down to 2350 by then!
DOW 2350 - WHAAAAAaaaaat?!?!
Audrey
OP
OP
clifp
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Ok with 7 trading days left. Ronstars prediction of Dow 10,487 looks remarkably accurate the Dow closed today at 10,418. There is still hope for the Dow 11,000 crowd though.
Actually Kudos are in order for the forum members in generally 62 out of 105 had the Dow closing between 10,000 and 11,000. I believe the Dow was at 9,016 when I posted the poll.
Actually Kudos are in order for the forum members in generally 62 out of 105 had the Dow closing between 10,000 and 11,000. I believe the Dow was at 9,016 when I posted the poll.
Westernskies
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Slightly off topic, but I predict Tiger Woods will have an affair in 2009...
unclemick
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I'm within 1% of my all time high in ER(since 1993) measured in portfolio $(2007 was previous peak) AFTER taking out $ for expenses. So that's ok.
Not counting inflation and the Saints lost.
heh heh heh - I have not achieved the true Boglehead Zen-ness of 'Don't Know Don't Care' but I am full auto in Target Retirement.
Except for a few Norwegian widow stocks - for the hormones.
.
