2018 YTD investment performance thread

[sengsational]

My calculation is very simple. It has three values: 1) current balance of all accounts (including cash, HSA, everything except the change in the couch), 2) that same total from January 1, and 3) the estimated spending YTD.

We've been calling it "money chimp" style spending adjustment if you do it this way:

=(CurrentAllInBalance+YtdSpend/2)/(StartYearBalance-YtdSpend/2)-1

There was a bit of analysis done by the smart people here that suggested the above estimate matched the gold standard of XIRR pretty closely.

I feel there are a lot of reports on this thread that do it differently, that's fine. There's probably some cherry picking, that's fine. There's probably outright fiction, that's fine. It's all about entertainment.

 

[audreyh1]

No annualized return, because it does not make sense. If I did that, I would prefer to annualize the first two trading days of the year. I got 2.43% for 2 days right after the market open.

Yeah - reporting annualized returns (for shorter periods) never made sense to me either. In no way do they predict what is going to happen for the rest of the year, so what is the point?

 

[sengsational]

You can report an annualized return for a period longer than one year...that would have value. That way, you could compare different lengths of time span. For instance, the first 20 years of investing, I had an annualized return of 15%, but in the ten years following, I only had an annualized return of 10%.

I do agree, though, that taking a short time span can be misleading and is not very helpful.

 

[gayl]

After reading several pages it seems that any comparison is not going to be meaningful as I've seen the following:

1. Difference in "just investments" or "all holdings including cash"
2. Difference on how withdrawals and/or spend is included
3. Difference in YTD vs Annualized

There are probably other things as well, just did a quick review and see radically different approaches.

I'm sure there is a "standard" way that people should be calculating it, but it just doesn't seem to be obvious to me that those "standards" are followed.

Ok. I'll jump on again. Is there a 'standard?' Personally I just use whatever # pops in Schwab as to YTD portfolio performance which does subtract for whatever I roll out of 4 accounts: brokerage, IRA, Roth, Legacy (Not rolling in this year).

 

[NW-Bound]

You can report an annualized return for a period longer than one year...that would have value. That way, you could compare different lengths of time span. For instance, the first 20 years of investing, I had an annualized return of 15%, but in the ten years following, I only had an annualized return of 10%.

I do agree, though, that taking a short time span can be misleading and is not very helpful.

Yes. When looked over a longer period like 1 year, one can look back and understand some market movements. For example, last year I had around 20% return, but this year is ho hum. Why? My overweight of the semiconductor sector and EM was doing great last year. Not so this year.

 

[bobandsherry]

Ok. I'll jump on again. Is there a 'standard?' Personally I just use whatever # pops in Schwab as to YTD portfolio performance which does subtract for whatever I roll out of 4 accounts: brokerage, IRA, Roth, Legacy (Not rolling in this year).

The approach in this post by "sengsational" seems to be about as straight forward, all inclusive and limits the cherry picking.

We've been calling it "money chimp" style spending adjustment if you do it this way:

=(CurrentAllInBalance+YtdSpend/2)/(StartYearBalance-YtdSpend/2)-1

 

[gayl]

I subtract for dividends rolled out and buying CDs lowered my returns. if I included yesterday's dividends it looks slightly better 6.61% YTD vs 6.49% but those won't auto reinvest until next week

SPY still beats me and that hurts

I'm used to years with higher returns (ex 1987 / 2008-9) but the logic on these boards convinced me to think a little more of conservative not as aggressive. Hence I'm almost 15% bonds + 100k CDs. Still when I look back as this thread has me doing, returns are not so hot.

 

[Dtail]

I'm used to years with higher returns (ex 1987 / 2008-9) but the logic on these boards convinced me to think a little more of conservative not as aggressive. Hence I'm almost 15% bonds + 100k CDs. Still when I look back as this thread has me doing, returns are not so hot.

Just posting bias towards higher returns to some extent.

 

[target2019]

Ok. I'll jump on again. Is there a 'standard?' Personally I just use whatever # pops in Schwab as to YTD portfolio performance which does subtract for whatever I roll out of 4 accounts: brokerage, IRA, Roth, Legacy (Not rolling in this year).

That YTD number is the standard. Good planning to use one company for your investments.

 

[Fedup]

These posts let me know not everybody is indexing.

 

[street]

So if I want to see what percent I have gained from the day I retired (my portfolio at that time) would yo still use the 12 month in the equation?

 

[NW-Bound]

Just posting bias towards higher returns to some extent.

When you have lousy returns, you tend not to "brag" about it. Particularly when the S&P is up 9.9% YTD.

If you don't obtain the right fraction of the S&P gain as a function of your AA, people will say "serves you right for trying to pick stock".

The truth is that if you have international exposure, it brings your return down. And then, a big part of the S&P gain is concentrated in a few stocks, such as Amazon (+71% YTD), Apple (+33% YTD), Microsoft (+34% YTD). If a non-indexer does not have these stocks, he is likely to miss out.

 

[Fedup]

I had AMD, not MAGA.

But I thought VOO YTD return is 10.36% and VTI is 10.63% according to Morningstar and Vanguard.

 

[NW-Bound]

OK, so I counted 0.46% short. Must have missed a dividend payout or something.

 

[sengsational]

So if I want to see what percent I have gained from the day I retired (my portfolio at that time) would yo still use the 12 month in the equation?

The input should match the dates of your balances, but the output is annualized.

I recreated the calculator here *, and it has an extra output of the growth over the span defined (not annualized).

* This is read-only, but if you open it with Google Sheets or save it to your own drive, you can type into it and it will calculate for you.

 

[street]

^ Thank you very much.

 

[NYEXPAT]

That YTD number is the standard. Good planning to use one company for your investments.

+1 easypeasy. It does not capture the final days gain, but who's counting!

 

[pb4uski]

Ok. I'll jump on again. Is there a 'standard?' Personally I just use whatever # pops in Schwab as to YTD portfolio performance which does subtract for whatever I roll out of 4 accounts: brokerage, IRA, Roth, Legacy (Not rolling in this year).

While we obviously don't audit the entries, having been a participant on this thread for a long time, my understanding is this:

• Include all retirement investments... don't include 529s since those are for your kids... exclude any side funds earmarked for uses other than retirement...in our case it includes all financial accounts other than our local bank accounts that we use to pay our bills which are typically $5-20K so it wouldn't make a difference... so for us it includes joint online savings account, joint and individual taxable accounts, tIRAs, Roth IRAs, and HSAs, CSV of life insurance.
  
• Include contributions and withdrawals... ideally with a XIRR calculation... but the moneychimp calculator is a good approximation... I use a XIRR that factors in beginning of year and current balances and contributions and withdrawals by date.... however because our withdrawals are fairly constant it is within 0.01% of the moneychimp calculator.
  
• We always report a YTD calculation... so fo XIRR the ending value is a negative cash flow as of 12/31/2018 rather than the end of the month being measured... and for the moneychimp calculator use 12 months rather than the actual number of months elasped.

 

[gayl]

Got it: include Schwab as it's investments, omit USAA as its $$s for expenses / wants / needs

 

[audreyh1]

I post retirement assets return and all investable assets return, YTD.

For the retirement assets, it's current value/(starting value - annual withdrawal) - 1.

For all investable assets (net worth less real assets), it's (current value + YTD spending)/starting value - 1. This is a bit more conservative than the money chimp calculation, but matches my retirement assets performance calculation.

The second number is very slightly less than the first due to more cash equivalents.

I don't go by whatever any website tells me as they are usually wrong. My assets are totaled in Quicken, and that's where I get my input numbers.

 

[imoldernu]

Haven't figured it out, but these were the rates on my Ibonds.

 

[gayl]

I don't go by whatever any website tells me as they are usually wrong. My assets are totaled in Quicken, and that's where I get my input numbers.

This is what Schwab uses to come up with its portfolio performance. Good enough for me as I'm not a mathematician:

Beginning Value
- Dividends Not Reinvested
- Interest Not Reinvested
Net Cash In/Out
Net Transfers In/Out
- Withholding
Net Contribution
Account Value
Appreciation/Depreciation
Dividends Reinvested
Interest Reinvested
Change In Value
Ending Value
Portfolio Return


FWIW: No transfers in, minimal transfers out

 

[pb4uski]

Got it: include Schwab as it's investments, omit USAA as its $$s for expenses / wants / needs

Can you elabortate on the USAA part? From what you wrote I assume that it is your local bank account and balances are de minimus, so that is why they are being omitted.

 

[gayl]

Can you elabortate on the USAA part? From what you wrote I assume that it is your local bank account and balances are de minimus, so that is why they are being omitted.

Checking averages $1500+, savings around 15k-20k ...depends on whether I've paid for a trip yet or not. Never under 15k. Yeah you'd think they're omitted because their close to $100 but my comfort zone is 15k in ready cash


Oh wait! Maybe that's de minimus to you ....

 

[kgtest]

Getting hammered. Down 5.35% since last Thursday close. Ouch. What goes up, must come down?