2019 YTD Investment Performance Thread

[NW-Bound]

... 3.3% below all time high September 2018

I still need another 7.4% gain to get back to my high-water mark reached in late Jan 2018 (I am not an indexer, and do not track the S&P that closely).

The above number includes my WR of 2.8% since that date. So, I am still down 4.6% from my all-time high.

 

[NW-Bound]

Is the end of the race six feet under, or retirement?

As long as I am alive and cognizant of my financial situation, I will always be in the market.

And as I am an active investor, I am racing against a passive portfolio of about 60/40 or 70/30.

 

[Ready-4-ER-at-14]

I liked the measure it with a micrometer, mark it with chalk, and cut it with an ax reference and may use it again myself elsewhere. Regarding accuracy, precision ideas here very useful but may not be understood by all. (including me : ) )

I took slide rule in engineering way back when and we really only had about two or three significant figures to work with and had to keep track of the zeros in our head so 3,000,000 was 3.0 to 10 to the sixth power.
If you had a real number like 3,218,164.27 and it moved up 120,217.53 and then divide that by the original number getting .034355933356379 not really sure saying you are up 3.43% is wrong. I'd agree with numbers this large and holdings that can change 1-2% a day or more it may not show a true trend line though. You could have been unchanged all quarter and made the gains in one day, or just jumped on both sides of gain loss all quarter. I use something I call a quick and dirty indicator with a trend line in excel to show that. (unweighted changed in about 300 things daily)

 

[kgtest]

As long as I am alive and cognizant of my financial situation, I will always be in the market.

And as I am an active investor, I am racing against a passive portfolio of about 60/40 or 70/30.

[emoji1]

 

[sengsational]

I liked the measure it with a micrometer, mark it with chalk, and cut it with an ax reference and may use it again myself elsewhere.

Me too! You never know if, later, you might want a little more precision. In HS I was on the cusp of slide-rule and calculator. Not everyone could afford a TI-57 or whatever the popular one was at the time, so the default in science class was the slide rule. I'm glad I have that experience because it really instills the "significant figures" idea.


So, yeah, YTD 10% (not even any tenths).

 

[NW-Bound]

My Quicken screen is telling me my stock portion of the portfolio is currently up 1.94%. Entire portfolio is up 1.25% when diluted with cash, but MF results are not yet known. These numbers are actually of 20 minutes ago, as that is the delay of Quicken stock quotes.

Of course it could be all gone by the end of this trading day. All it takes is someone saying "Boo!", and "buy, buy, buy" turns to "sell, sell, sell".

PS. Should I have rounded up the DTD (day to date) return to 2%? Oh, 2.15% now. Oh la la!

 

[NW-Bound]

In case people wonder what's in my stock "collection", here are my best performing shares DTD, as Quicken sorts it out for me.

CLF - 5.36% (steel maker)
MU - 5.11% (memory chip maker)
AMAT - 4.51% (semi equipment maker)
LYB - 2.61% (chemical producer)
X - 2.33% (US Steel)
etc...

The "animal spirit" is back. They are clamoring to buy. And I find it hard to sell.

PS. By the way, the Quicken screen also reminds me that the 12-month return of MU is -13%, of AMAT is -22%, of X is -21%, etc... It's not all rosy.

 

[NW-Bound]

There is no precision in these posted numbers and probably not much accuracy either. For instance, did anybody notice the mistake in YTD performance in my last post for one of the benchmark funds?

No, I only glanced at your posted numbers for the MFs, and did not see anything outrageous. Hence, I did not doublecheck your numbers.

But your post reminded me of an HSA account that Quicken is not able to download from. It is invested in Wellington, but with a class of shares that's not the same as elsewhere, probably for higher ERs. Anyway, I just went in and updated it to reflect the dividends received last year.

My portfolio is now higher, but not all of it is reflected in the YTD number, because the bulk of the increase was posted in Dec 2018.

Should I go back to the 2018 thread to correct my number? It does show up in the 0.01% digit. Heh heh heh...

 

[Tiger8693]

9.63% YTD 2019 with a 65/35 AA. Not too shabby.

 

[Golden sunsets]

8.04% As Of 3/31

52/46/2

 

[ckelly78z]

18.49% YTD in 2019 so far.....hope to double that this year while staying in equities.

 

[KCGeezer]

I tell my kids, “it’s good to hope,,,, but don’t always plan on it”.

 

[HI Bill]

13.7% on my VG assets; 5.6% in my ESOP (but that's a once-a-year valuation). Not too shabby.

 

[redduck]

There is no precision in these posted numbers and probably not much accuracy either. For instance, did anybody notice the mistake in YTD performance in my last post for one of the benchmark funds?

(bolding by the duck)

Are you saying that the numbers you post are neither precise nor accurate? If so, thanks for the heads-up.

 

[redduck]

In case people wonder what's in my stock "collection", here are my best performing shares DTD, as Quicken sorts it out for me.

CLF - 5.36% (steel maker)
MU - 5.11% (memory chip maker)
AMAT - 4.51% (semi equipment maker)
LYB - 2.61% (chemical producer)
X - 2.33% (US Steel)
etc...

OK, that looks like an interesting exercise, so I went to Morningstar and looked at my YTD Dividend Stocks + the EFT, XLU. It shows that the "%Total Return YTD" is 13.27. For several reasons I'm hoping that the 13.27 is accurate.

 

[Jeffman52]

For the year at +14.83%
Since this time last year I'm up 6.99%



Glad I stayed the course and didn't panic

 

[NW-Bound]

OK, that looks like an interesting exercise, so I went to Morningstar and looked at my YTD Dividend Stocks + the EFT, XLU. It shows that the "%Total Return YTD" is 13.27. For several reasons I'm hoping that the 13.27 is accurate.

I also count XLU among my holdings.

Share price was 52.92 at market close on 12/31/2018. It is 57.32 currently (down from a recent high of 58.96). Dividend of 0.43 was paid on 3/15.

So, the YTD return of XLU as of this writing is 9.12%.

 

[redduck]

I also count XLU among my holdings.

Share price was 52.92 at market close on 12/31/2018. It is 57.32 currently (down from a recent high of 58.96). Dividend of 0.43 was paid on 3/15.

So, the YTD return of XLU as of this writing is 9.12%.

As of 9:30, XLU's share price was $57.56 and the YTD according to Morningstar was 9.95%. I have more faith in your numbers than in Morningstar's.

 

[LOL!]

(bolding by the duck)

Are you saying that the numbers you post are neither precise nor accurate? If so, thanks for the heads-up.

No, I am saying that the numbers posted by lots of people in these threads are neither precise nor accurate. For myself, I don't post my YTD numbers, but I might mention if I am ahead or behind my benchmarks. In this thread, I think the numbers I posted for the Vanguard funds are accurate and precise as of the day I noted. The number for DGSIX is not right.

As for my "lots of people" comment, I have noticed over the last 10 years that many people don't know how to calculate their portfolio performance in a common legitimate manner. That is, they don't calculate it like Vanguard.com does nor like Morningstar.com both of which use the same method of the XIRR algorithm found in MicroSoft Excel. And if even they used that algorithm, they leave out things such as their cash, or their play account. Or they include only one account like "my IRA" or "my 401(k)" or their "account with the best performance if I leave out that stock that I lost money on." You know what I mean even if the Beardstown Ladies didn't know.

I have accounts that hold single funds and get no transactions except autoreinvesting dividends. My calculations always show the exact same performance as Vanguard.com and Morningstar.com show for them.

 

[NW-Bound]

Speaking of accurate reporting of YTD returns to 0.01%, I recently discovered that, in order to get the YTD expenses to use with the Moneychimp formula, I could not tell Quicken to give me the expenses "for this year".

Why not? I found out that my wife scheduled some payments in advance, by as much as a couple of months, such as the real-estate taxes. Bank of America reported these to Quicken, which rightfully included these in the total expenses that it knew YTD although they had not been incurred.

So, for really, really correct numbers, I have to enter in the period end date as that of today in order to have the real YTD number.

PS. My wife's advanced scheduled payments would affect my computed number to the 0.1% digit. That is not acceptable to me, although the daily fluctuation of the portfolio is often greater than 1%.

 

[redduck]

No, I am saying that the numbers posted by lots of people in these threads are neither precise nor accurate. For myself, I don't post my YTD numbers, but I might mention if I am ahead or behind my benchmarks. In this thread, I think the numbers I posted for the Vanguard funds are accurate and precise as of the day I noted. The number for DGSIX is not right.

As for my "lots of people" comment, I have noticed over the last 10 years that many people don't know how to calculate their portfolio performance in a common legitimate manner. That is, they don't calculate it like Vanguard.com does nor like Morningstar.com both of which use the same method of the XIRR algorithm found in MicroSoft Excel. And if even they used that algorithm, they leave out things such as their cash, or their play account. Or they include only one account like "my IRA" or "my 401(k)" or their "account with the best performance if I leave out that stock that I lost money on." You know what I mean even if the Beardstown Ladies didn't know.

I have accounts that hold single funds and get no transactions except autoreinvesting dividends. My calculations always show the exact same performance as Vanguard.com and Morningstar.com show for them.

Thanks for the reply.
Using moneychimp, I usually only post my Dividend Portfolio and all that is in it. However, in a recent post, I just listed how the STOCKS (and the one ETF) performed using the number Morningstar gave me.

I don't find not much value (ok, no value, but I'm working on my social skills here) in reading that someone's IRA is up 11.2% (or whatever) with no other information attached to it.

Anyhow, I plod along, trying to make my dividend portfolio easy to understand. I definitely don't try for "precise," but I do strive for "reasonably accurate."

How come you don't report your YTD?

 

[CardsFan]

I find this thread very insightful. In my case, my returns are total invested assets, all in, including checking account, adjusted for expenses using the formula posted here a while back.

Those that post regularly usually calculate the "right way" and also post AA. So I can gauge how I am doing relative to others with a similar AA.

As far as accuracy, it's not perfect. I use my bank statement for expenses, and it actually closes the 20th of the month. I don't update my CD's every month, but will when I get a statement. But for looking at a rolling average, it is close enough for government work.

 

[LOL!]

How come you don't report your YTD?

I report my YTD relative to my benchmarks in the LOL! Market Timing Newsletter and what I think are reasons why it is ahead or behind. I think folks can figure out my YTD pretty well from those posts.

I don't think it is wise to make comparisons to what people post, but it is perfectly fine to make comparisons to a benchmark with a similar asset allocation. That way, one knows (a) their own asset allocation, (b) the benchmark asset allocation and (c) that the benchmark performance is absolutely legit.

I am all for comparison to a benchmark. I wrote a 3-part long post about this back in 2016:
http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f44/lol-s-market-timing-newsletter-57042-65.html#post1787189

 

[audreyh1]

Retirement assets: +9.4% YTD thru 3/31/19

Total investable assets: +8.6% YTD thru 3/31/19

 

[target2019]

If someone looks once a month, posts a number, it's all good. Over time those who are in error, will self correct. The thread is about learning.