I just called the IRS to try to get a better idea of how to differentiate an expected delay from a real problem. As I mentioned earlier, I sent a return via certified mail and tracking shows it was received in the Ogden, Utah office on Feb. 26. What has been bothering me is that the refund status page has no record of my return. I could accept the delayed processing, but would like to at least see an acknowledgement that they know it's there.
The agent I spoke to said that they shut down the offices in March and that even a return received in February would likely not be showing as received. She told me that they are returning to work on July 13 and will resume processing paper returns on August 1. If I don't see a status update within 6 weeks of August 1, I should call again.
I thought I had seen that some of the offices were already back to processing paper returns, so am not convinced that this is 100% accurate info. I'm just passing it along for anyone else who might be wondering, FWIW. At least it gives a possible timeframe to look for.