As GM goes so goes the nation (and market), your thoughts and predictions

[Gardnr]

When you buy an airline ticket you are putting your LIFE in the hands of the airline. I don't know about you, but that's more important to me than my car warranty

That's not the point. People don't worry about if the airline will still be around several years after they buy their "product." But the longevity and viability of a car company is a concern to a new car buyer.

 

[Tadpole]

Well whatever is decided I hope accidentally it turns out to be the best decision. I haven't an educated clue and don't think the deciders do either.

 

[haha]

My basic questions remain on the table, is a GM failure more likely than not? Would the announcement of a GM failure pull the DOW down significantly. perhaps down 2000 points? If so is this not an a good time to take on the risk timing the market with some portion of one's portfolio?
Pulling some dollars out of equities now and plan to go back in after the GM failure?

This is a probability chain. Your guess is as good or more likely as bad as anyone else's.

So if you feel like shooting from the hip, draw!

Ha

 

[travelover]

The government should take over the auto makers. Wouldn't you like to own a government made car or truck Imagine the commercials..

Hint: Look at a postal delivery truck Stylish and durable!

 

[TromboneAl]

Well whatever is decided I hope accidentally it turns out to be the best decision. I haven't an educated clue and don't think the deciders do either.

Well put!

 

[haha]

An interesting wrinkle (Warning, involves fact.)

FT.com / Companies / Automobiles - Insurers pull cover from GM and Ford suppliers

European credit insurers will no longer cover GM, Ford parts suppliers.

Ha

 

[clifp]

I don't think GM failure would have that big effect on the DOW. The DOW Jones is weird index because it is price weighted and GM is currently trading at $3 so if goes to zero it is a small hit, GM is the only auto stock in the Dow Jones 30.

The S&P which has more Auto suppliers, and steel producers might be effected more.
However, at Dow 8,500 S&P 870, I think the market is already factoring in a 10% unemployment rate.

 

[FinanceDude]

FT.com / Companies / Automobiles - Insurers pull cover from GM and Ford suppliers

European credit insurers will no longer cover GM, Ford parts suppliers.

Ha

Seems like they think bankruptcy is imminent........

 

[Brat]

I think there will be some form of life ring thrown but only if the company and the union give a lot - which is why the risk of the gov doing nothing must be real. The workers won't be happy (neither will the stock holders) but all the parties at the table must understand that the cliff is a step away.

 

[youbet]

I think there will be some form of life ring thrown but only if the company and the union give a lot - which is why the risk of the gov doing nothing must be real. The workers won't be happy (neither will the stock holders) but all the parties at the table must understand that the cliff is a step away.

I hope you're correct about the "company and the union give in a lot" part. Reading between the lines and listening to the tone of Barack's comments on his Sunday night interview would have me believe that a Big Three bailout, at least the opening $25B amount, is simply payback promised pre-election if they could deliver the votes. No strings.....just a gift in return.

That would be congruent with Chicago-style politics.

 

[FinanceDude]

I think there will be some form of life ring thrown but only if the company and the union give a lot - which is why the risk of the gov doing nothing must be real. The workers won't be happy (neither will the stock holders) but all the parties at the table must understand that the cliff is a step away.

The stockholders already got crushed. The bondholders are hanging for dear life. I can see why the UAW and a others don't want GM to go bankrupt, but I think its the only option. Bankruptcy DOES NOT MEAN you go out of business, they will still make cars, sell cars, etc.

I have read some info that says you need financing to come out of bankruptcy, that's true. However, the Treasury could be a white knight and agree to lend GM money AFTER they reorganize, not before......

 

[armor99]

If the government really wants to throw 50 billion dollars at the problem, they should at least do something that might help.

They could put out $50 billion in grants to start 5 new car companies with the caveat they they can never buy another company, merge with another company, or be bought by another company. Saturn started from scratch and would still be around today if GM hadn't sucked them dry to limp on a couple more years.

And round and round the cycle goes.... more regualation on what companies can and cannot do... So you create a company.... then you impose rules on it that effectively bind them hand and foot to compete in the marketplace. Then you scream that the company is failing due to "inept management" I would assume... and the solution is what.... yup... even more regulation.

Propping up of a failing business enterprise is never a winning situation. I was against ALL forms of bailout. They will not, have not, and do not work!

 

[OAG]

There is not enough votes to pass this thing in the Senate this year. Guess Majority Harry's "trial votes" and not getting near what they need, at least for now.

 

[Worried in FL]

I think that the government should just give them the $25 Billion Dollars that has already been promised them to retool themselves. Give it all to them now but I would put some stipulations on that money. First, get rid of the top management who has dragged this company into the ground. Second, the UAW must give back. The union is what has helped to destroy this company. When janitors there make more than teachers, that is ludicrous. Third, they must reinvent what they manufacture immediately. No more huge SUV's and trucks.

When a few years ago they gave full pensions with full medical benefits to people who had 30 years and let them retire as young as 46, it was a ridiculous move.

If the government wants to help, let them pass legislation to give a $1,000. tax credit to any American who buys a GM car instead of bailing them out. That will help them and help us.

Just my $ .02!

 

[youbet]

the UAW must give back. The union is what has helped to destroy this company. !

Ain't gona happen in any meaningful way IMHO. How can the govt make them? The UAW goes on strike against the govt and GM and the govt holds out? I don't think so. The incoming administration is vocally pro-union. Look for them to help maintain the current UAW packages and then change labor laws to ensure the UAW can organize the Toyota, Nissan, Subaru, Honda, etc., plants creating higher costs there and an overall level playing field for GM. Until the Big Three's competitors are organized and paying the higher wages and benefits, we'll subsidize with tax dollars. I feel it coming. Think about what Barack has said about the importance of the US auto industry and the importance of unions during his campaign and during his interview Sunday night.......

If the Japanese auto makers pull manufacturing out of the US and back to Japan or to someplace else, the US will impose import tariffs.

 

[haha]

Ain't gona happen in any meaningful way IMHO. How can the govt make them? The UAW goes on strike against the govt and GM and the govt holds out? I don't think so. The incoming administration is vocally pro-union. Look for them to help maintain the current UAW packages and then change labor laws to ensure the UAW can organize the Toyota, Nissan, Subaru, Honda, etc., plants creating higher costs there and an overall level playing field for GM. Until the Big Three's competitors are organized and paying the higher wages and benefits, we'll subsidize with tax dollars. I feel it coming. Think about what Barack has said about the importance of the US auto industry and the importance of unions during his campaign and during his interview Sunday night.......

If the Japanese auto makers pull manufacturing out of the US and back to Japan or to someplace else, the US will impose import tariffs.

This is the only realistic analysis of this topic I've seen on the forum. For heaven's sake, how can a guy who owes his political life to unions and quid pro quo suddenly suddenly say "Only kidding!"

Higher auto prices and taxes and perhaps inflation resulting from propping up the current structure will only screw the great unwashed public, but will deliver concentrated benefits to a target group. This is what politics is for folks, where you been?

Ha

 

[walkinwood]

The New York Times has an article that says:
If Detroit Falls, Foreign Makers Could Be Buffer


"But many industry experts say the big foreign makers are established enough to take control of the industry and its vast supplier network more quickly than is widely understood.

“You would have an auto industry in the United States more like that of Mexico and Canada: foreign-owned,” said Sean McAlinden, chief economist at the Center for Automotive Research in Ann Arbor, Mich., which describes itself as a nonprofit organization that has “strong relationships with industry, government agencies, universities, research institutes, labor organizations” and other groups with an interest in the auto business."

I don't want any more of my money subsidizing losing companies. I'd rather see them giving the money to "winning" industries and allow them to gain greater market share - especially against foreign competition.

 

[Frugality_of_Apathy]

You mean like sending it back to the taxpayers?

Give what back? They never collected that money in the first place. It's all fresh off the printing press (except they don't even actually bother to print the money anymore). Oh you'll pay for it with inflation though, don't worry about that.

And round and round the cycle goes.... more regualation on what companies can and cannot do... So you create a company.... then you impose rules on it that effectively bind them hand and foot to compete in the marketplace. Then you scream that the company is failing due to "inept management" I would assume... and the solution is what.... yup... even more regulation.

Propping up of a failing business enterprise is never a winning situation. I was against ALL forms of bailout. They will not, have not, and do not work!

They shouldn't be propping it up at all. But as they are hell bent on spending money we don't have to artificially aide the US car market more competition is better than dumping it down the black hole of a failing company.

 

[ERD50]

.... Second, the UAW must give back. The union is what has helped to destroy this company. When janitors there make more than teachers, that is ludicrous. ....

Just my $ .02!

Ain't gona happen in any meaningful way IMHO. How can the govt make them? The UAW goes on strike against the govt and GM and the govt holds out? I don't think so. The incoming administration is vocally pro-union. ....

This is the only realistic analysis of this topic I've seen on the forum. For heaven's sake, how can a guy who owes his political life to unions and quid pro quo suddenly suddenly say "Only kidding!"

Higher auto prices and taxes and perhaps inflation resulting from propping up the current structure will only screw the great unwashed public, but will deliver concentrated benefits to a target group. This is what politics is for folks, where you been?

Ha

For an amazing example of this, listen to this podcast:

Do the Big Three Deserve to Be Saved? - To the Point on KCRW

Warren Olney on "to the point", interviewing some guy who writes for a Detroit magazine "Labor Notes".

That part starts in ~ 21:00, and the Union guy says that any restructuring (airlines, steel) disproportionately affects the workers. Then, the Q at 21:46 is the biggie - he asks the guy if the Unions share in the responsibility to re-negotiate due to all the current and legacy costs?


a bit of stumbling and dancing, then they guy picks up on an interesting "party line" - First, he talks about how Rick Waggoner likes to drag out these big numbers for health care, and the guy says this is bigger than the BIG THREE, and he spins that to a national problem, we have 50M w/o health care, blah, blah, blah... essentially saying that the govt should be paying for the Union Health care anyway, and tryng to lump the UAW workers in with the average Joe.

Hmmm, if the health care costs were bigger than the BIG Three, then why did the unions insist on them? It sounds like he *is* admitting that the Unions are partially resp for bankrupting the auto companies. But, since that Sugar Daddy ran out of money, let's just turn to the Biggest Sugar Daddy of them all - good old Uncle Sam!

At least that's my take on it. Any others?

-ERD50

 

[freebird5825]

i heard something interesting on NPR today...since US auto makers and their suppliers sell to the military with vehicles and associated repair parts, if the US auto makers go under, it would have trickle down effects to our military.
obviously Jeep is a mil vehicle manufacturer. any others of note?
anyone else hear or see an article to this effect?

 

[FinanceDude]

i heard something interesting on NPR today...since US auto makers and their suppliers sell to the military with vehicles and associated repair parts, if the US auto makers go under, it would have trickle down effects to our military.
obviously Jeep is a mil vehicle manufacturer. any others of note?
anyone else hear or see an article to this effect?

Chrysler makes the Abrams tank I think. However, I am willing to bet Toyota or Nissan can make tanks if they need to.........

 

[Bestwifeever]

Aid prospects darken for desperate US carmakers - Yahoo! News

 

[harley]

Chrysler makes the Abrams tank I think. However, I am willing to bet Toyota or Nissan can make tanks if they need to.........

Or would quite happy to buy that portion of the business at the Big Three yard sale.

 

[samclem]

i heard something interesting on NPR today...since US auto makers and their suppliers sell to the military with vehicles and associated repair parts, if the US auto makers go under, it would have trickle down effects to our military.

I would think the portions of the companies making military vehicles and parts might still be profitable and therefore could be spun off to gain some needed revenue. They might as well concentrate all the useful stuff (good products, valuable facilities, etc) in a few of these spin-offs and make some money, concentrate all the brownfield-site factories, crummy union contracts, and bad product lines in other parts of the company--then declare bankruptcy for those parts.

 

[armor99]

Sigh..... this just makes me so ill... and angry at the same time. First off... is it really any surprise that while the govt continues to pump taxpayer dollars into private businesses that almost everyone has their hand out? Even I would find it difficult to say no to a financial payday that large. Money does not make problems go away. Give $100 dollars to a chronic gambler... to "turn his life around" and that money will be gone at the track with frightening speed. This is really a mindset problem in america. The idea of eating a nice dinner at an expensive restaurant and giving the bill to the next guy in line. Pretty soon... each successive person in line begins to eat his meal faster and faster, desperately not wanting to get stuck with the mounting check. And each person in line feeling justified in eating but not paying.... as long as they do not get stuck with the bill at the end (i.e tax the rich... as long as "the rich" is not me). I hate to use the analogy here but I must. I read a book not too long ago.... most of you know it... And if you know that book... and what was written in it, you will find very frightening parallels to what is happening right now. Do not be surprised when you start to hear cries of ... "The businesses must be forced to build cars the way that we (the govt) determine they should be." And maybe later... "No... you are not allowed to quit your job... you need to stay in your position for the good of the country." Something about needing to "tread water" for a while while the govt figures it out. Yeah.... heard that.... bought the t-shirt... not a place I really want to see happen for real...