Thanks Tekward. It is a very logical approach, isn’t it? Speaking as a 52 year old who would like to FIRE at 55, it definitely applies to me but that doesn’t mean I want to do what he says. What he advocates is a form of timing, isn’t it? The article’s logic also misses some psychological factors that are real in the current climate, factors that also involve the dreaded word “timing”.
For example, is now a great “time” to be stocking up on bonds since interest rates are historically low and clearly rising? Logically, yes, according to Kitces but logically not if one prefers to buy low and sell high rather than the reverse. Are stocks enjoying newly-freshened tail winds, where all of the world’s major economies are suddenly growing in synch, making it a great “time” to have more equity exposure? Or, is the CAPE 10 signaling we are entering the predictable, greedy, Euphoric “time” we often see at the tail end of many bull markets, where someone out there is about to become the “greater fool” by buying overpriced equities while the smart money is getting more conservative by buying bonds and cash right now? Beefing up cash instead of bonds means the certainty of loss from inflation, which is not logical either, but maybe that’s better than buying bonds right now.
I admit to being torn between “fixing the roof while the sun is shining” (getting more conservative like Kitces says) and FOMO (buying stocks due to fear of missing out.) Regardless of inner turmoil due to cognitive dissonance, I have, in fact, gotten more conservative since the fall, going from 80/20 to 70/30, getting more internationally diversified and putting half of our bond allocation in DW’s G Fund as an inflation hedge; and I plan to reach 50/50 - 60/40 at FIRE time in 3 years, so I guess I’m grudgingly doing what Kitces advocates.
What about others? Are you taking any action or are you the stealy-eyed, emotion-free and fearless type with an iron-clad constitution that the books and authors like the impressive Mr. Kitces seem to say we all should be?