Coronavirus - Financial impact

[Brat]

VENTS are not filled with water. Aerosol spewing out with every type of nasty thing.

follow the health effects thread:
https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f38/coronavirus-health-aspects-101852-37.html

Traps are filled with water but every waste system is vented.

 

[JoeWras]

Traps are filled with water but every waste system is vented.

Unless someone modifies the vent, and then the trap's water gets siphoned out, exposing the waste pipe to the room. Aerosolized particles can then flow out into the room.

 

[Brat]

That was what was pictured in the Hong Kong apartment building. https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong.../coronavirus-your-toilet-how-hong-kong-policy

What I learned from that is that testing using a patient's stool for the virus may be as effective as using lung sputum from someone exhibiting symptoms of phenomena.

 

[JoeWras]

That was what was pictured in the Hong Kong apartment building. https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong.../coronavirus-your-toilet-how-hong-kong-policy

Oh wow! Even worse. Here the vent was just cut off an exposed! The normal risk is bad venting so traps get siphoned. This situation, however, is just plain wrong and extremely dangerous.

I will also add that high rise buildings have a whole different set of plumbing issues than standard low rise (5 or 6 stories and below) do.

 

[NW-Bound]

As this thread is about financial impacts of the COVID-19, I will share some relevant tidbits here.

Automaker General Motors Co. said it’s trying to stop some of its U.S. plants from running out of China-sourced parts, and Fiat Chrysler plans to idle an assembly plant in Serbia because of a lack of components.

Bank of Korea Governor Lee Ju-yeol warned that the spread of the viral illness could have a negative impact on the economy and said the central bank is preparing measures to extend financial support to struggling businesses.

Container vessels that routinely move goods worth hundreds of millions of dollars in single shipments are at the sharp end of the turmoil...

Almost 600,000 20-foot boxes are currently out of action as a result of the virus according to Alan Murphy, chief executive officer of container shipping analysis company Sea Intelligence, up from about half that amount just under a week earlier...

 

[audreyh1]

Yeah, it seems the US markets just don’t “see” these impacts yet.

 

[Ronstar]

Well my DJI drone may have been shipped from China. Ordered on Jan 21, I got an email this morning from FedEx that it was shipped from Shenzhen on Saturday 2/15. Shenzhen is near Hong Kong about 600 miles from Wuhan.

When I checked FedEx tracking, I see a scheduled delivery of Wednesday 2/19. But the tracking info includes a "shipping exception". Not sure if the shipping exception is due to a signature being required or something else.

In any case, this should be interesting. I need to prepare for a total hazmat unboxing when it gets here followed by drone quarantine outside for several days.

 

[JoeWras]

Don't be like Homer when he got the flu after opening the box. DW and I were thinking about this episode recently.

 

[audreyh1]

That made me think of the anthrax mailings, and I never knew the outcome:

WASHINGTON (2010) — More than eight years after anthrax-laced letters killed five people and terrorized the country, the F.B.I. on Friday closed its investigation, adding eerie new details to its case that the 2001 attacks were carried out by Bruce E. Ivins, an Army biodefense expert who killed himself in 2008.

NYTimes (may require subscription) https://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/20/us/20anthrax.html

Dr. Ivins, a microbiologist who had worked with anthrax for decades as part of the vaccine program at the Army’s biodefense laboratory at Fort Detrick, Md., took a fatal overdose of Tylenol in July 2008 at the age of 62, after months of intense scrutiny by the F.B.I., which had placed a GPS device on his car, examined his trash and questioned his wife and two children.

 

[ls99]

Oil glut? WIll the price of fuels in US go up or down as result?
Supposedly China is a very large importer of the stuff.

"By Muyu Xu, Shu Zhang and Devika Krishna Kumar BEIJING/SINGAPORE/NEW YORK, Feb 13 (Reuters) – The coronavirus’s effect on energy markets is worsening, as the sharp fall in demand in China, the world’s largest importer of crude, is stranding oil cargoes off the country’s coast and prompting shippers to seek out other Asian destinations."
https://gcaptain.com/stranded-tanke...nks-coronavirus-leads-to-crude-glut-in-china/

"When vessels cannot be unloaded, their charterers have to pay what is known as demurrage costs. Those fees have climbed to more than $100,000 per day for a cargo arriving next week compared with about $90,000 per day for those loaded 40 days ago, prompting some shippers to try to transfer crude to older tankers that cost less to operate, they said."

 

[NW-Bound]

^^^ You don't need to tell me about it. My energy stocks have been pummeled.

And yet, gas prices where I am have not come down any.

 

[aja8888]

Get ready for a real large period of oversupply of crude oil with resultant lowering of energy stock prices (XOM, BP, etc). Gasoline is already down to $1.84/gallon near me.

 

[NW-Bound]

$2.75 at Costco near me. $2.93 at CircleK.

What's goin' on?

I guess nobody tells these guys about the virus in China, nor do they surf the Web, so that they would know to lower the price.

 

[N02L84ER]

Our gasoline prices went up $0.20 per gallon last week.

 

[robnplunder]

Yeah, it seems the US markets just don’t “see” these impacts yet.

It is kind of surreal but I expect the market to react badly soon.

 

[audreyh1]

Get ready for a real large period of oversupply of crude oil with resultant lowering of energy stock prices (XOM, BP, etc). Gasoline is already down to $1.84/gallon near me.

Same here. Gas has been under $2 a gallon for weeks now in South TX and keeps dropping. Costco included, but other stations too.

 

[ransil]

jumped .20 / gal here in 2 days last week, was 2.56 Friday went to 2.79

 

[NW-Bound]

When the impact of the virus is felt here in the US, will the Fed lower the rate to zero?

Darn, I will miss out on bond rally again. Just as you think rates cannot go any lower.

 

[Dtail]

When the impact of the virus is felt here in the US, will the Fed lower the rate to zero?

Darn, I will miss out on bond rally again. Just as you think rates cannot go any lower.

If you really believe that, then why not buy bonds?

 

[2177V]

If you really believe that, then why not buy bonds?

I hesitate buying corporate bonds because a bond is a promise by a corporation to pay you back. If the SHTF, some of the lower investment grade bond companies may go bankrupt during a recession. Government bonds are safer since the government can print money while a corporation cannot. I am 100% government bonds because +2% is better than -20% to -50% during a recession.

 

[NgineER]

I have a friend who is works for a company that makes ergonomic office equipment in the US.
They have a wholly owned factory in southern China, not in Wuhan. They are only at 35% staffing level in the factory due to quarantines in cities other than the big ones you read about. I think this will have bigger impacts on the stock market than is currently reflected in valuations.

 

[2177V]

I have a friend who is works for a company that makes ergonomic office equipment in the US.
They have a wholly owned factory in southern China, not in Wuhan. They are only at 35% staffing level in the factory due to quarantines in cities other than the big ones you read about. I think this will have bigger impacts on the stock market than is currently reflected in valuations.

The stock market believes that this is a temporary event. Also money is coming in from Europe due to the negative interest rates and money is coming in from China due to the virus. If the virus event last longer than expected (which impacts earnings) and the dollar starts to weaken (which hurts foreign investors due to the exchange rates), then there will be an effect on the US stock market.

 

[NW-Bound]

If you really believe that, then why not buy bonds?

Bonds may jump up on Tuesday at the market open, on top of the recent gain. I will have to see if it makes sense to buy this late.

 

[NW-Bound]

As mentioned, I ordered some more drip watering parts from the hard-working vendor in Guangdong who even shipped my first test order on his New Year Day.

The order was placed 2/14, and it has been loaded on an cargo plane and on its way on 2/16, as shown by tracking info on AliExpress.

Seems like business as usual.

 

[NgineER]

I guess what I was trying to say is that any business with a supply chain that involves China will be affected by this, even if they are not based in Wuhan.