Turkey default

Happyras

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I am not talking about Thanksgiving meals here. I was wondering if anyone is considering the emerging markets impact from the pending default of the country of Turkey? This reality is similar to Greece. Those funds invested in Turkey might be at risk, but other associated countries would be impacted as well.

Turkey will be among the first countries to default on foreign debts should global liquidity conditions worsen, said Desmond Lachman, a former senior International Monetary Fund executive.

Turkish companies and banks will soon face problems repaying some $300 billion of debt due to the nation’s weak economy and currency, Lachman said in an interview with Greek news website Liberal published on Monday.

In response, the Turkish government is in a state of denial about the country’s economic and financial problems and lacks a solid strategy, said Lachman, who is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI).

It seems to me this should be something to review within your portfolio.....:popcorn:
 
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I can only find 2018 debt/GDP numbers for Turkey, but it looks like they have a bigger economy with less debt than Greece. Also, similar investment B grades. So a Turkish default seems likely to make choppy waters but not start toppling dominoes. I suppose there's a good chance we'll find out.
 
Brad Setser is an economist and fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. His expertise is capital flows and is one of the most knowledgeable economists on Turkey economy, exchange rate and capital. Over the past few years he has written a number of blog and Twitter posts on Turkey and for at least a year has highlighted the weakening capital and exchange problems. Here is his most recent from 10/23 https://www.cfr.org/blog/changing-nature-turkeys-balance-sheet-risks

The President of the Central Bank was removed and replaced yesterday because if an ongoing dispute with President Erdogan. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...hief-ousted-after-lira-plunges-to-record-lows
 
Not surprised at all.

In my past life, I worked in FX at a megabank. The Turkish Lira was the joke of all global currencies.

1960s – 1 U.S. dollar = 9 Turkish lira (TRL)
1970 – 1 U.S. dollar = 11.3 Turkish lira
1975 – 1 U.S. dollar = 14.4 Turkish lira
1980 – 1 U.S. dollar = 80 Turkish lira
1985 – 1 U.S. dollar = 500 Turkish lira
1990 – 1 U.S. dollar = 2,500 Turkish lira
1995 – 1 U.S. dollar = 43,000 Turkish lira
2000 – 1 U.S. dollar = 620,000 Turkish lira
2001 - 1 U.S. dollar = 1,250,000 Turkish lira

2005 – 1 U.S. dollar = 1,350,000 Turkish lira

2005 TRY is new currency = 1,000,000 TRL

1/2/2020 - 1 USD = 5.9505 TRY (5,950,500 TRL)
11/5/2020 - 1 USD = 8.4185 TRY (8,418,500 TRL)
 
I've been reading for years about how Erdogan keeps overruling his central bank, which is never a good idea in any country.

Turkey and Argentina are the two countries I have the most concern about.
 
Too bad. I was Hungary and hoped for some tips on roasting the Turkey. Perhaps now I will just make some Chile. Or broil some steaks from the Wales I harpooned the other day.

I've been watching the Turkish Lira for a while thinking I might make a return trip to that country. But the virus put an end to that for now. Too bad. The Turks are wonderful people. The depth of history and culture is amazing. And I really enjoy their tea and that mud like coffee.
 
There are already plenty of serious geo-political issues in the area. This potential crisis would not likely make things better but I'm telling you way more than I know - again, so YMMV.
 
Look who is in charge of Turkey.
 
I brine my turkey breasts with citrus and spice then smoke them on the egg for a couple hours.
 
Too bad. I was Hungary and hoped for some tips on roasting the Turkey. Perhaps now I will just make some Chile. Or broil some steaks from the Wales I harpooned the other day.

I had some Brazil nuts with a Guinea hen...Oman it was good. I wanted Samoa, but it was all gone. Should have placed another order Togo I guess.
 
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