Coronavirus - Financial impact

[NW-Bound]

An economic slowdown in China will eventually impact everybody. It's just a matter of degree.

I was just supporting the little family-business vendor in Guangdong.

He probably has seen his orders cut way down, due to people's fear of getting virus with the merchandise. He's still selling out of his inventory probably.

Tourism will get hit hard. Of course cruise lines will be at the front, but there are also airlines, hotels, restaurants, etc... Cathay Pacific already asked its 27,000 employees to take 3 weeks off without pay.

If it gets bad enough for people to avoid airports, we may see traffic to Europe reduced this summer too. Everybody may get impacted.

 

[Amethyst]

We just returned from a 2-week trip through Southeast Asia. Tourism sites were probably less crowded (comparison based on other tours we've taken) due to the notable absence of Chinese tourists. I heard Japanese and Korean (along with the usual American/Euro languages) but only once did I hear people speaking Chinese, and it was a family - not a tour group.

In the Bangkok Night Market, vendors were very resistant to bargaining, because they had already reduced their prices due to the lack of Chinese tourists (this is actually what we were told). Evidently their usual tactic is to show an outrageous price on the item, then allow themselves to be haggled down to half that price (still overpriced, in my opinion). This time they were opening with the half-price, and resisting all attempts to get them to go lower. Consequently, I only bought one item.

An economic slowdown in China will eventually impact everybody. It's just a matter of degree.

.

 

[Amethyst]

I've heard some people are refusing to order anything from China, for fear of getting the virus when the box is opened. Which strikes me as assigning way more survivability to viruses than I would have thought possible.

As mentioned, I ordered some more drip watering parts from the hard-working vendor in Guangdong who even shipped my first test order on his New Year Day.

The order was placed 2/14, and it has been loaded on an cargo plane and on its way on 2/16, as shown by tracking info on AliExpress.

Seems like business as usual.

 

[JoeWras]

I've heard some people are refusing to order anything from China, for fear of getting the virus when the box is opened. Which strikes me as assigning way more survivability to viruses than I would have thought possible.

If it happened to Homer Simpson, it can happen to me.

 

[Another Reader]

I recall reading that the virus survivability period on a steel surface was 6 to 9 days. I'm surely overcautious, but the package from Zenni and the tongs used to retrieve the package are hanging out in the garage. The package was shipped from Novato, but that does not mean it was packed in Novato.

I am paying attention to sources and shipping points when I order on-line now. It's silly, but there is so much missing and conflicting information, I choose to be overly cautious over the potential exposure. Sure would be nice if all these governments and their various agencies would cooperate with each other to determine exactly what is happening and to develop treatments and a vaccine.

 

[Ronstar]

I've heard some people are refusing to order anything from China, for fear of getting the virus when the box is opened. Which strikes me as assigning way more survivability to viruses than I would have thought possible.

The drone that I ordered from China has arrived and is sitting on my workbench still in the packaging. I'm going out now to unpack it. With full PPE.

 

[tmm99]

I read the other day that a nurse who took care of one patient with the coronavirus tested positive. They closed the whole hospital because of it, but I mean, what's the chance of this nurse getting sick?? Possible they had other asymptomatic people with the virus around that they weren't aware, but this particular area has had nobody else who was tested positive, so let's assume this nurse somehow got the virus from this one patient in the hospital with the coronavirus. How did she get it?? Because this thing seems to spread so easily, I think I'd err on the overcautious side.

 

[NW-Bound]

I read the other day that a nurse who took care of one patient with the coronavirus tested positive. They closed the whole hospital because of it, but I mean, what's the chance of this nurse getting sick?? Possible they had other asymptomatic people with the virus around that they weren't aware, but this particular area has had nobody else who was tested positive, so let's assume this nurse somehow got the virus from this one patient in the hospital with the coronavirus. How did she get it?? Because this thing seems to spread so easily, I think I'd err on the overcautious side.

Where is this hospital?

In Wuhan, more than 500 medical staff have been infected. A senior doctor who is a neurosurgeon and director at a large hospital in Wuhan just died of the virus.

 

[NW-Bound]

I've heard some people are refusing to order anything from China, for fear of getting the virus when the box is opened. Which strikes me as assigning way more survivability to viruses than I would have thought possible.

As I said earlier, the people who handled the package along its route to be, including my local postal carrier, would see the virus sooner than I do. But then, I am the only one exposed to its contents.

I am going to open the package, and leave the content out in the bright SW sun for an afternoon to be safe.

 

[NW-Bound]

If it happened to Homer Simpson, it can happen to me.

I do not watch TV. Is the show still on? If not, was this the cause?

 

[JoeWras]

I do not watch TV. Is the show still on? If not, was this the cause?

It is still on, but we don't watch anymore.

I speak of a rather famous episode from I think 1993, when we watched. I posted a screen shot earlier. In the episode, there was a virus outbreak in Springfield because Homer ordered something from Asia. When he opened the box, the "Osaka Flu" infected him.

It was all humorous at the time. In retrospect, it is eerily disturbing!

 

[Alan]

It is still on, but we don't watch anymore.

I speak of a rather famous episode from I think 1993, when we watched. I posted a screen shot earlier. In the episode, there was a virus outbreak in Springfield because Homer ordered something from Asia. When he opened the box, the "Osaka Flu" infected him.

It was all humorous at the time. In retrospect, it is eerily disturbing!

Is this it?

https://youtu.be/hqCVB0tOSVQ

 

[JoeWras]

Is this it?

https://youtu.be/hqCVB0tOSVQ

That's it!

 

[NW-Bound]

It is still on, but we don't watch anymore.

I speak of a rather famous episode from I think 1993, when we watched. I posted a screen shot earlier. In the episode, there was a virus outbreak in Springfield because Homer ordered something from Asia. When he opened the box, the "Osaka Flu" infected him.

It was all humorous at the time. In retrospect, it is eerily disturbing!

I was joking about Simpson died and that ended the show.

I saw a clip of that episode that someone posted earlier. Yes, it was funny, even if not realistic.

 

[Ronstar]

^ I didn't want to be like Homer.

https://youtu.be/J2kOQsJAi_Y

 

[JoeWras]

I was joking about Simpson died and that ended the show.

I'm frequently joke impaired.

^ I didn't want to be like Homer.

https://youtu.be/J2kOQsJAi_Y

You set a high standard. My kevlar throw away doesn't have a hoodie. Now what?

 

[Ronstar]

I'm frequently joke impaired.



You set a high standard. My kevlar throw away doesn't have a hoodie. Now what?

Just don't rub your head against anything.

 

[2177V]

Update from my wife who has relatives in China...her statements:

1. The official numbers of deaths and infections are way under the real numbers. This is based on "word of mouth" from Chinese citizens who do not "trust" the Chinese government on telling the truth (That sounds familiar). When I mentioned to her that the official death toll is under 2,000, she stated the actual death toll is probably closer to two or three times that number based on what the Chinese citizens believe in China.

2. A close friend of my wife had 3 deaths in the family and this is in Northern China near North Korea. Many people who are sick refused to go to the hospital for fear of contacting the disease and therefore many people have died in their homes. These deaths may not be counted.

3. Some people are returning to the factories fully masked and wearing tyrek suits and disposible gloves. The separation between each worker is about 5 meters. Supervisors are communicating by video cameras with speakers. There are numerous lunch shifts to allow a similar separation in the lunch room. The lunch room, bathrooms, and the factory areas are being sprayed constantly with disinflectant. People are simply staying away from each other.

4. Chinese people are hoping warmer weather will help control the virus.

 

[NW-Bound]

^^^ Thanks for posting.

I feel really sorry for the Chinese citizenry to live and work under this condition. Just imagine myself among the cruise passengers is tough enough.

 

[NW-Bound]

^ I didn't want to be like Homer.

https://youtu.be/J2kOQsJAi_Y

Wow. You surely took precaution.

However, I would wipe the parts more meticulously, so as to not miss any spot.

Oh well, that's a lot more than I did when receiving my order. I opened the package with bare hands, then remembered about the virus. So, I just left the content outside, exposed to sunlight for an afternoon, and went washed my hand.

That package was shipped on Jan 25, which was early. I have another package which was processed and shipped by the vendor on Feb 14. I will be a bit more careful, and handle it more gingerly when airing it to the sun.

 

[tmm99]

Where is this hospital?

In Wuhan, more than 500 medical staff have been infected. A senior doctor who is a neurosurgeon and director at a large hospital in Wuhan just died of the virus.

The hospital is in Kanagawa Prefecture in Japan. A woman in her 80s in Japan died after contracting the coronavirus (the first and only case of death in Japan so far). The nurse who took care of this woman contracted the virus most likely from her. Unlike the medical staff in Wuhan who deal with multiple coronavirus patients, this hospital had no other coronavirus patients but this old woman. I don't know how this nurse caught the virus as I imagine she was properly dressed to protect herself being a nurse and all, but this virus is so contagious that even the smallest mistake could get you infected, I think, maybe via contaminated surfaces, or something else. The sick woman had pneumonia, so I imagine she had a respirator on and it's not like she could sneeze or cough and the droplets will fly all over the place?? I have no idea. I'm no expert...

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20200217_32/

 

[NW-Bound]

^^^ Thanks for sharing.

The virus appears to be highly contagious in some cases, and yet not in others. For example, about the 83-year-old American woman passenger on the Westerdam who was found to be infected, her husband has been tested twice, and the results still showed negative.

However, this woman was asymptomatic until she reached Kuala Lumpur, then had a fever and started to cough. So, was it the coughing is what caused the virus to spread, and she was not coughing when quarantined on the ship with her husband? If so, then how did she contract it herself?

I saw somewhere a doctor in Wuhan saying that he believed he got infected via his eyes. A cough droplet could land on your eyes, the same way as it getting inhaled.

 

[audreyh1]

Incubation period can be as short as 2 days, apparently.

 

[BeachOrCity]

Interesting article about how markets are not properly assessing the impact to global economy.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ax...ina-24da74a5-c824-4c79-a8c7-220213d28824.html

I read somewhere that when facts no longer matter, it’s a bubble.

The markets are not properly valuing risk and as such I would say this definitely qualifies as a bubble based on that metric.

This isn’t just about coronavirus either. We are basically in an environment where bad news doesn’t effect pricing of equities.

I fear this will end badly.

Just rebalanced a bit more within my ips.

 

[kjpliny]

Interesting article about how markets are not properly assessing the impact to global economy.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ax...ina-24da74a5-c824-4c79-a8c7-220213d28824.html

I read somewhere that when facts no longer matter, it’s a bubble.

The markets are not properly valuing risk and as such I would say this definitely qualifies as a bubble based on that metric.

This isn’t just about coronavirus either. We are basically in an environment where bad news doesn’t effect pricing of equities.

I fear this will end badly.

Just rebalanced a bit more within my ips.

I guess you never know...I thought TSLA was expensive at $200. It's now over $900.