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Old 02-16-2020, 04:13 AM   #141
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Get ready for a real large period of oversupply of crude oil with resultant lowering of energy stock prices (XOM, BP, etc). Gasoline is already down to $1.84/gallon near me.
Same here. Gas has been under $2 a gallon for weeks now in South TX and keeps dropping. Costco included, but other stations too.
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Old 02-16-2020, 04:33 AM   #142
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jumped .20 / gal here in 2 days last week, was 2.56 Friday went to 2.79
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Old 02-16-2020, 07:56 AM   #143
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When the impact of the virus is felt here in the US, will the Fed lower the rate to zero?

Darn, I will miss out on bond rally again. Just as you think rates cannot go any lower.
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Old 02-16-2020, 08:34 AM   #144
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When the impact of the virus is felt here in the US, will the Fed lower the rate to zero?

Darn, I will miss out on bond rally again. Just as you think rates cannot go any lower.
If you really believe that, then why not buy bonds?
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Old 02-16-2020, 11:47 AM   #145
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If you really believe that, then why not buy bonds?
I hesitate buying corporate bonds because a bond is a promise by a corporation to pay you back. If the SHTF, some of the lower investment grade bond companies may go bankrupt during a recession. Government bonds are safer since the government can print money while a corporation cannot. I am 100% government bonds because +2% is better than -20% to -50% during a recession.
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Old 02-16-2020, 12:11 PM   #146
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I have a friend who is works for a company that makes ergonomic office equipment in the US.
They have a wholly owned factory in southern China, not in Wuhan. They are only at 35% staffing level in the factory due to quarantines in cities other than the big ones you read about. I think this will have bigger impacts on the stock market than is currently reflected in valuations.
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Old 02-16-2020, 12:21 PM   #147
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I have a friend who is works for a company that makes ergonomic office equipment in the US.
They have a wholly owned factory in southern China, not in Wuhan. They are only at 35% staffing level in the factory due to quarantines in cities other than the big ones you read about. I think this will have bigger impacts on the stock market than is currently reflected in valuations.

The stock market believes that this is a temporary event. Also money is coming in from Europe due to the negative interest rates and money is coming in from China due to the virus. If the virus event last longer than expected (which impacts earnings) and the dollar starts to weaken (which hurts foreign investors due to the exchange rates), then there will be an effect on the US stock market.
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Old 02-16-2020, 01:59 PM   #148
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If you really believe that, then why not buy bonds?
Bonds may jump up on Tuesday at the market open, on top of the recent gain. I will have to see if it makes sense to buy this late.
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Old 02-16-2020, 02:28 PM   #149
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As mentioned, I ordered some more drip watering parts from the hard-working vendor in Guangdong who even shipped my first test order on his New Year Day.

The order was placed 2/14, and it has been loaded on an cargo plane and on its way on 2/16, as shown by tracking info on AliExpress.

Seems like business as usual.
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Old 02-16-2020, 04:04 PM   #150
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I guess what I was trying to say is that any business with a supply chain that involves China will be affected by this, even if they are not based in Wuhan.
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Old 02-16-2020, 04:55 PM   #151
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An economic slowdown in China will eventually impact everybody. It's just a matter of degree.

I was just supporting the little family-business vendor in Guangdong.

He probably has seen his orders cut way down, due to people's fear of getting virus with the merchandise. He's still selling out of his inventory probably.

Tourism will get hit hard. Of course cruise lines will be at the front, but there are also airlines, hotels, restaurants, etc... Cathay Pacific already asked its 27,000 employees to take 3 weeks off without pay.

If it gets bad enough for people to avoid airports, we may see traffic to Europe reduced this summer too. Everybody may get impacted.
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Old 02-18-2020, 08:36 AM   #152
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We just returned from a 2-week trip through Southeast Asia. Tourism sites were probably less crowded (comparison based on other tours we've taken) due to the notable absence of Chinese tourists. I heard Japanese and Korean (along with the usual American/Euro languages) but only once did I hear people speaking Chinese, and it was a family - not a tour group.

In the Bangkok Night Market, vendors were very resistant to bargaining, because they had already reduced their prices due to the lack of Chinese tourists (this is actually what we were told). Evidently their usual tactic is to show an outrageous price on the item, then allow themselves to be haggled down to half that price (still overpriced, in my opinion). This time they were opening with the half-price, and resisting all attempts to get them to go lower. Consequently, I only bought one item.

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An economic slowdown in China will eventually impact everybody. It's just a matter of degree.

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Old 02-18-2020, 08:39 AM   #153
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I've heard some people are refusing to order anything from China, for fear of getting the virus when the box is opened. Which strikes me as assigning way more survivability to viruses than I would have thought possible.

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As mentioned, I ordered some more drip watering parts from the hard-working vendor in Guangdong who even shipped my first test order on his New Year Day.

The order was placed 2/14, and it has been loaded on an cargo plane and on its way on 2/16, as shown by tracking info on AliExpress.

Seems like business as usual.
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Old 02-18-2020, 08:46 AM   #154
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I've heard some people are refusing to order anything from China, for fear of getting the virus when the box is opened. Which strikes me as assigning way more survivability to viruses than I would have thought possible.
If it happened to Homer Simpson, it can happen to me.
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Old 02-18-2020, 09:41 AM   #155
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I recall reading that the virus survivability period on a steel surface was 6 to 9 days. I'm surely overcautious, but the package from Zenni and the tongs used to retrieve the package are hanging out in the garage. The package was shipped from Novato, but that does not mean it was packed in Novato.

I am paying attention to sources and shipping points when I order on-line now. It's silly, but there is so much missing and conflicting information, I choose to be overly cautious over the potential exposure. Sure would be nice if all these governments and their various agencies would cooperate with each other to determine exactly what is happening and to develop treatments and a vaccine.
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Old 02-18-2020, 11:41 AM   #156
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I've heard some people are refusing to order anything from China, for fear of getting the virus when the box is opened. Which strikes me as assigning way more survivability to viruses than I would have thought possible.
The drone that I ordered from China has arrived and is sitting on my workbench still in the packaging. I'm going out now to unpack it. With full PPE.
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Old 02-18-2020, 12:37 PM   #157
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I read the other day that a nurse who took care of one patient with the coronavirus tested positive. They closed the whole hospital because of it, but I mean, what's the chance of this nurse getting sick?? Possible they had other asymptomatic people with the virus around that they weren't aware, but this particular area has had nobody else who was tested positive, so let's assume this nurse somehow got the virus from this one patient in the hospital with the coronavirus. How did she get it?? Because this thing seems to spread so easily, I think I'd err on the overcautious side.
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Old 02-18-2020, 01:21 PM   #158
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I read the other day that a nurse who took care of one patient with the coronavirus tested positive. They closed the whole hospital because of it, but I mean, what's the chance of this nurse getting sick?? Possible they had other asymptomatic people with the virus around that they weren't aware, but this particular area has had nobody else who was tested positive, so let's assume this nurse somehow got the virus from this one patient in the hospital with the coronavirus. How did she get it?? Because this thing seems to spread so easily, I think I'd err on the overcautious side.
Where is this hospital?

In Wuhan, more than 500 medical staff have been infected. A senior doctor who is a neurosurgeon and director at a large hospital in Wuhan just died of the virus.
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Old 02-18-2020, 01:37 PM   #159
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I've heard some people are refusing to order anything from China, for fear of getting the virus when the box is opened. Which strikes me as assigning way more survivability to viruses than I would have thought possible.
As I said earlier, the people who handled the package along its route to be, including my local postal carrier, would see the virus sooner than I do. But then, I am the only one exposed to its contents.

I am going to open the package, and leave the content out in the bright SW sun for an afternoon to be safe.
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Old 02-18-2020, 01:40 PM   #160
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If it happened to Homer Simpson, it can happen to me.
I do not watch TV. Is the show still on? If not, was this the cause?
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