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02-16-2020, 04:13 AM
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#141
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 37,931
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aja8888
Get ready for a real large period of oversupply of crude oil with resultant lowering of energy stock prices (XOM, BP, etc). Gasoline is already down to $1.84/gallon near me.
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Same here. Gas has been under $2 a gallon for weeks now in South TX and keeps dropping. Costco included, but other stations too.
__________________
Retired since summer 1999.
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02-16-2020, 04:33 AM
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#142
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Mar 2018
Posts: 363
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jumped .20 / gal here in 2 days last week, was 2.56 Friday went to 2.79
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02-16-2020, 07:56 AM
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#143
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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When the impact of the virus is felt here in the US, will the Fed lower the rate to zero?
Darn, I will miss out on bond rally again. Just as you think rates cannot go any lower.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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02-16-2020, 08:34 AM
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#144
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Tampa
Posts: 11,197
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound
When the impact of the virus is felt here in the US, will the Fed lower the rate to zero?
Darn, I will miss out on bond rally again. Just as you think rates cannot go any lower.
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If you really believe that, then why not buy bonds?
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TGIM
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02-16-2020, 11:47 AM
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#145
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Dec 2018
Posts: 966
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dtail
If you really believe that, then why not buy bonds?
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I hesitate buying corporate bonds because a bond is a promise by a corporation to pay you back. If the SHTF, some of the lower investment grade bond companies may go bankrupt during a recession. Government bonds are safer since the government can print money while a corporation cannot. I am 100% government bonds because +2% is better than -20% to -50% during a recession.
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02-16-2020, 12:11 PM
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#146
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 1,027
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I have a friend who is works for a company that makes ergonomic office equipment in the US.
They have a wholly owned factory in southern China, not in Wuhan. They are only at 35% staffing level in the factory due to quarantines in cities other than the big ones you read about. I think this will have bigger impacts on the stock market than is currently reflected in valuations.
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02-16-2020, 12:21 PM
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#147
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Dec 2018
Posts: 966
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NgineER
I have a friend who is works for a company that makes ergonomic office equipment in the US.
They have a wholly owned factory in southern China, not in Wuhan. They are only at 35% staffing level in the factory due to quarantines in cities other than the big ones you read about. I think this will have bigger impacts on the stock market than is currently reflected in valuations.
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The stock market believes that this is a temporary event. Also money is coming in from Europe due to the negative interest rates and money is coming in from China due to the virus. If the virus event last longer than expected (which impacts earnings) and the dollar starts to weaken (which hurts foreign investors due to the exchange rates), then there will be an effect on the US stock market.
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02-16-2020, 01:59 PM
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#148
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dtail
If you really believe that, then why not buy bonds?
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Bonds may jump up on Tuesday at the market open, on top of the recent gain. I will have to see if it makes sense to buy this late.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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02-16-2020, 02:28 PM
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#149
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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As mentioned, I ordered some more drip watering parts from the hard-working vendor in Guangdong who even shipped my first test order on his New Year Day.
The order was placed 2/14, and it has been loaded on an cargo plane and on its way on 2/16, as shown by tracking info on AliExpress.
Seems like business as usual.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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02-16-2020, 04:04 PM
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#150
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 1,027
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I guess what I was trying to say is that any business with a supply chain that involves China will be affected by this, even if they are not based in Wuhan.
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02-16-2020, 04:55 PM
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#151
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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An economic slowdown in China will eventually impact everybody. It's just a matter of degree.
I was just supporting the little family-business vendor in Guangdong.
He probably has seen his orders cut way down, due to people's fear of getting virus with the merchandise. He's still selling out of his inventory probably.
Tourism will get hit hard. Of course cruise lines will be at the front, but there are also airlines, hotels, restaurants, etc... Cathay Pacific already asked its 27,000 employees to take 3 weeks off without pay.
If it gets bad enough for people to avoid airports, we may see traffic to Europe reduced this summer too. Everybody may get impacted.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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02-18-2020, 08:36 AM
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#152
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 12,566
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We just returned from a 2-week trip through Southeast Asia. Tourism sites were probably less crowded (comparison based on other tours we've taken) due to the notable absence of Chinese tourists. I heard Japanese and Korean (along with the usual American/Euro languages) but only once did I hear people speaking Chinese, and it was a family - not a tour group.
In the Bangkok Night Market, vendors were very resistant to bargaining, because they had already reduced their prices due to the lack of Chinese tourists (this is actually what we were told). Evidently their usual tactic is to show an outrageous price on the item, then allow themselves to be haggled down to half that price (still overpriced, in my opinion). This time they were opening with the half-price, and resisting all attempts to get them to go lower. Consequently, I only bought one item.
Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound
An economic slowdown in China will eventually impact everybody. It's just a matter of degree.
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__________________
If you understood everything I say, you'd be me ~ Miles Davis
'There is only one success – to be able to spend your life in your own way.’ Christopher Morley.
Even a blind clock finds an acorn twice a day.
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02-18-2020, 08:39 AM
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#153
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 12,566
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I've heard some people are refusing to order anything from China, for fear of getting the virus when the box is opened. Which strikes me as assigning way more survivability to viruses than I would have thought possible.
Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound
As mentioned, I ordered some more drip watering parts from the hard-working vendor in Guangdong who even shipped my first test order on his New Year Day.
The order was placed 2/14, and it has been loaded on an cargo plane and on its way on 2/16, as shown by tracking info on AliExpress.
Seems like business as usual.
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__________________
If you understood everything I say, you'd be me ~ Miles Davis
'There is only one success – to be able to spend your life in your own way.’ Christopher Morley.
Even a blind clock finds an acorn twice a day.
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02-18-2020, 08:46 AM
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#154
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2012
Posts: 11,701
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Amethyst
I've heard some people are refusing to order anything from China, for fear of getting the virus when the box is opened. Which strikes me as assigning way more survivability to viruses than I would have thought possible.
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If it happened to Homer Simpson, it can happen to me.
__________________
Retired Class of 2018
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02-18-2020, 09:41 AM
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#155
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 3,405
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I recall reading that the virus survivability period on a steel surface was 6 to 9 days. I'm surely overcautious, but the package from Zenni and the tongs used to retrieve the package are hanging out in the garage. The package was shipped from Novato, but that does not mean it was packed in Novato.
I am paying attention to sources and shipping points when I order on-line now. It's silly, but there is so much missing and conflicting information, I choose to be overly cautious over the potential exposure. Sure would be nice if all these governments and their various agencies would cooperate with each other to determine exactly what is happening and to develop treatments and a vaccine.
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02-18-2020, 11:41 AM
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#156
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Northern Illinois
Posts: 16,543
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Amethyst
I've heard some people are refusing to order anything from China, for fear of getting the virus when the box is opened. Which strikes me as assigning way more survivability to viruses than I would have thought possible.
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The drone that I ordered from China has arrived and is sitting on my workbench still in the packaging. I'm going out now to unpack it. With full PPE.
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02-18-2020, 12:37 PM
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#157
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 5,170
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I read the other day that a nurse who took care of one patient with the coronavirus tested positive. They closed the whole hospital because of it, but I mean, what's the chance of this nurse getting sick?? Possible they had other asymptomatic people with the virus around that they weren't aware, but this particular area has had nobody else who was tested positive, so let's assume this nurse somehow got the virus from this one patient in the hospital with the coronavirus. How did she get it?? Because this thing seems to spread so easily, I think I'd err on the overcautious side.
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02-18-2020, 01:21 PM
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#158
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tmm99
I read the other day that a nurse who took care of one patient with the coronavirus tested positive. They closed the whole hospital because of it, but I mean, what's the chance of this nurse getting sick?? Possible they had other asymptomatic people with the virus around that they weren't aware, but this particular area has had nobody else who was tested positive, so let's assume this nurse somehow got the virus from this one patient in the hospital with the coronavirus. How did she get it?? Because this thing seems to spread so easily, I think I'd err on the overcautious side.
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Where is this hospital?
In Wuhan, more than 500 medical staff have been infected. A senior doctor who is a neurosurgeon and director at a large hospital in Wuhan just died of the virus.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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02-18-2020, 01:37 PM
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#159
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Amethyst
I've heard some people are refusing to order anything from China, for fear of getting the virus when the box is opened. Which strikes me as assigning way more survivability to viruses than I would have thought possible.
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As I said earlier, the people who handled the package along its route to be, including my local postal carrier, would see the virus sooner than I do. But then, I am the only one exposed to its contents.
I am going to open the package, and leave the content out in the bright SW sun for an afternoon to be safe.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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02-18-2020, 01:40 PM
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#160
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JoeWras
If it happened to Homer Simpson, it can happen to me.
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I do not watch TV. Is the show still on? If not, was this the cause?
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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