Correction, Are we there yet?

[Major Tom]

Its always funny when people pretend this doesnt bother them. None of us like to see our accounts drop even if its only on paper. We're in correction territory for sure.

I wouldn't say it doesn't bother me. It's more that I don't think about it much. It's a different approach. I'm interested in the long term. In the short and medium term, I busy myself with my day-to-day life. Besides, when you know that something's going to go down at some point, why should it bother you when it actually does?

OMG, there's a rally going on today +700 points...

S&P up 2.24% as I speak. Holy moly!

 

[REWahoo]

Its always funny when people pretend this doesnt bother them. None of us like to see our accounts drop even if its only on paper.

At my age I view the market the same way I view sports activity - as a spectator rather than as an active participant. Happy to sit on the sidelines and cheer for my [-]team[/-] portfolio when they are winning and say better luck [-]next time[/-] tomorrow when they lose. Either way, [-]the competition[/-] life goes on.

 

[NW-Bound]

I don't watch sports because I am not a participant.

As for the market, yes, I do participate. I try to be a contrarian and do the reverse of what others do. It's not just trading but also what to trade (I don't do meme stocks and other hot stocks). The stocks I buy don't get mentioned on CNBC and Web sites much, if at all.

 

[street]

I still believe the economy wants to take off but if it isn't one thing than the is another that delays the economy that wants to flourish. I feel as long as we don't have people on the ground fighting this war it is a positive for the markets.

 

[ExFlyBoy5]

The pandemic and resultant market reaction over the last 18 months has told us that there is NO RATIONAL REASON for ANYTHING that the "market should do." There are simply way too many variable to try and guess (with any decent accuracy) what will happen in the future.

 

[eytonxav]

The computers are working hard today after buying the dip yesterday. Once they get the top where they want it, down it comes again as the computers start dumping. Algorithms rule!

And those computers like to rinse and repeat.

 

[Helen]

Remember when a 600+ point drop was a rather significant percentage of the Dow?

 

[corn18]

VTI is down 10.6% so the whole domestic market is in a correction.

 

[W2R]

VTI is down 10.6% so the whole domestic market is in a correction.

Makes me glad that we have had perhaps about a decade during which the NYSE was thriving, giving us the opportunity to build up our nest eggs a bit more than originally planned. A nice safety margin sure helps one to sleep at night.

I just hope this correction or whatever-it-is doesn't last longer than we imagine it might. Oh well! Hang on tight. Life is always an adventure.....

 

[USGrant1962]

Remember when a 600+ point drop was a rather significant percentage of the Dow?

Or 508 points! I remember that one.

 

[disneysteve]

Remember when a 600+ point drop was a rather significant percentage of the Dow?

The local news radio station has taken to reporting the market activity by percentage up or down rather than by points.

 

[ExFlyBoy5]

And like clockwork, I know it's a down day because this thread has been revived.

 

[Helen]

And like clockwork, I know it's a down day because this thread has been revived.

Yes, but give it an hour, things could turn around. The market can't seem to get its bearing.

 

[MichealKnight]

Well, I didn't panic sell

All my life I've panic sold. Now, being retired- I made a true promise to myself not to do it because in past, I missed tons of upside. And all 2021 - every time it was down - I waited - and it came back, even higher than before.

I'm down 8% since Jan 1st - and I've been enjoying more donuts and scrabble games trying not to get upset. I've even added stocks this year...... today I started small position in JPM 133.98.

I feel like the 8% I lost - is gone - and now, I won't get ROI on the 8% I lost.

 

[ExFlyBoy5]

All my life I've panic sold. Now, being retired- I made a true promise to myself not to do it because in past, I missed tons of upside. And all 2021 - every time it was down - I waited - and it came back, even higher than before.

I'm down 8% since Jan 1st - and I've been enjoying more donuts and scrabble games trying not to get upset. I've even added stocks this year...... today I started small position in JPM 133.98.

I feel like the 8% I lost - is gone - and now, I won't get ROI on the 8% I lost.

It's not gone until you sell it.

 

[RunningBum]

It's not gone until you sell it.

Yep. And retirement investing is long term, not 2 months.

 

[oldtimer]

All my life I've panic sold. Now, being retired- I made a true promise to myself not to do it because in past, I missed tons of upside. And all 2021 - every time it was down - I waited - and it came back, even higher than before.

I'm down 8% since Jan 1st - and I've been enjoying more donuts and scrabble games trying not to get upset. I've even added stocks this year...... today I started small position in JPM 133.98.

I feel like the 8% I lost - is gone - and now, I won't get ROI on the 8% I lost.

One is not spending 100% of there portfolio in a month or a year, but over their retirement lifetime. Assuming the 4% SWR, that 8% is only a 0.32% drop in withdrawal leaving 3.68% to live on.

 

[ExFlyBoy5]

One is not spending 100% of there portfolio in a month or a year, but over their retirement lifetime. Assuming the 4% SWR, that 8% is only a 0.32% drop in withdrawal leaving 3.68% to live on.

That is a pretty good way of looking at it, but that doesn't sell clicks on the financial scare networks.

 

[OldShooter]

One is not spending 100% of there portfolio in a month or a year, but over their retirement lifetime. Assuming the 4% SWR, that 8% is only a 0.32% drop in withdrawal leaving 3.68% to live on.

Actually that is even a pessimistic way to look at the 8%. The more optimistic way to look is to observe that these kinds of moves, up and down, happen all the time and the net of all of them is a slow but steady upward movement in equity values of maybe 5-10% per year.

The behavioral finance folks have studied this type of thing and what they have consistently found is that retail investors who are constantly watching their accounts get lower returns that investors who pay less attention. The reason is our human baked-in risk aversion. The "downs" tend to make more of an impression than the "ups," causing the frequent watchers to become pessimistic and sell when they should be holding. Both Richard Thaler ("Nudge," "Misbehaving") and Daniel Kahneman (Thinking Fast and Slow) discuss this.

 

[corn18]

We're there.

 

[aja8888]

We're there.

Boy, i'm relieved. Now we go back up?

 

[corn18]

Boy, i'm relieved. Now we go back up?

Maybe, maybe not. NASDAQ is a bear and international is getting close to being a bear.

 

[aja8888]

Maybe, maybe not. NASDAQ is a bear and international is getting close to being a bear.

Corn, we are counting on you to give us the signal as to when to go all in again!

 

[aja8888]

Thought I would share this

https://wolfstreet.com/2022/03/07/n...hipping-chaos-massive-short-squeeze/#comments

The price of nickel futures today spiked by over 93% intraday from Friday’s close, to just over $56,000 per metric ton at the peak, an all-time record, and then settled down a bit and is currently at $50,271 per metric ton, up by 73% in one day on the London Metals Exchange, the biggest spike in the history of the futures contract going back 35 years.

Look what is happening in the nickel futures markets!

 

[corn18]

Corn, we are counting on you to give us the signal as to when to go all in again!

I would always do the exact opposite of what I think should be done. It's the reason I became a Boglehead. I am the worst active investor ever. The only active investment that ever went well for me was when I bought some ValueJet stock right after that crash in 1995 ish.